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原标题: 昆山女子医院人流飞度管家黑龙江新闻
The Brexit vote has created an environment of great uncertainty for Britain, the EU and the global economy. 英国脱欧公投为英囀?欧EU)和全球经济制造了一个巨大的不确定环境。No one can predict with any confidence what will happen for at least the next three years, but economists are in unusual agreement that if Brexit occurs it will be bad for the UK and bad for the EU.没有人能有把握地预测至少未来3年内会发生什么,但经济学家不同寻常地达成了共识:如果英国脱欧,将对英国和欧盟不利。How did we get here? One answer lies in choice architecture, the decision-making framework in which choices are made.我们如何走到这个境地?一个在于选择架构,即做出选择所处的决策框架。Consider the original charter of the EU. 以欧盟的原始章程为例。An important principle of good choice architecture is to anticipate how things might go wrong and take steps in advance to mitigate the damage. 良好选择架构的一个重要原则是预测情况可能如何变糟,并提前采取措施减少损害。In the formation of the EU, this step did not seem to attract the attention it deserved. 在欧盟成立过程中,这一步似乎没有得到足够的关注。What will happen if a country breaks the rules but is financially unable to repay its debts? The ambiguity in this answer has been evident in the drama surrounding Greece and a possible Grexit.如果一国违规但没有财力偿还债务会发生什么情况?在围绕希腊和可能的希腊退欧的闹剧中,显然相当模糊。Another question that appears to have been left unanswered originally is what would happen if a country wanted to leave, as the UK might wish to do. 另一个从一开始似乎就没有的问题是,如果一国希望离开欧盟会发生什么情况,就像英国可能希望做的那样。The EU resembled the Hotel California described in the Eagles song, where, You can check out any time you like / But you can never leave. 欧盟就像老鹰乐队(Eagles)所唱的《加州旅馆Hotel California),你可以随时结账,但你永远无法离开。Eventually this omission was addressed by the creation of the now famous Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, adopted in , which provides the rules for a country that wishes to secure a divorce from the EU. 最终,如今著名的《里斯本条约》(Lisbon treaty,于年生效)0条的出现解决了这种疏漏,为希望退出欧盟的国家制定了规则It has to be said that few states have provisions for leaving a union to which they belong; the US fought its deadliest war over such an issue.)(必须承认,几乎没有国家有退出它们所属联盟的规定;美国曾就这个问题进行最惨烈的斗争。)Although Article 50 was created to determine what happens in the case of a break-up, it is far from a full prenuptial agreement. 尽管0条的设立是为了确定一国如果要退出欧盟会发生什么,但远非一份完整的婚前协议。Rather than stating the terms under which a country can leave, it only prescribes a process. 它没有说明一国可以以什么条件退出欧盟,只是规定了程序。Once a country triggers Article 50, it has two years to negotiate terms and in the event that no agreement is reached (or extension granted), the country is out and presumably treated like any other country, using the rules established by the World Trade Organisation.一旦一国触发第50条,它将获得两年的谈判期,一旦没有达成协议(或者获准延期),该国即退出——可能会根据世界贸易组织(WTO)的规定获得与其他任何国家一样的待遇。Making the rules so vague has had unintended consequences. 制定如此模糊的规则造成了意想不到的后果。First, it allowed proponents of Brexit to offer voters the apparently unrealistic hope that the UK could negotiate an associate status similar to that of Norway, but with some modifications of the rules on free movement of people. 首先,它让脱欧持者得以向选民提供明显不切实际的希望:英国可以商议一个与挪威类似的地位,但会略微修改人员自由流动方面的规则。Second, the rule creates a long period of uncertainty for both the UK and other member states. 其次,这一规则为英国和其他欧盟成员国制造出一种长期不确定性。The UK could wait a year or more before triggering Article 50, to be followed by what would almost certainly be nearly two years of negotiations. 英国可能要等上一年或更长时间才触发第50条,然后几乎肯定要经历近两年的谈判International negotiations are like home improvement projects: they never finish early.) A better design would have been to spell out the details of a voluntary break-up in advance so any country would have a reasonably solid basis for evaluating the pros and cons of EU membership. (国际谈判就像家庭装修一样:永远不会提前结束。)一个更好的设计原本可以提前列出自愿退出的细节,这样任何一国都会拥有一个相当坚实的衡量欧盟成员国身份优劣的基础。It may not be too late to remedy this situation if the EU can figure out a way to clarify the terms of an exit.如果欧盟能找到明确退出条款的方法,修补这种状况可能还不算太晚。David Cameron, the former UK prime minister, was responsible for another piece of questionable choice architecture when he promised to hold the EU referendum.英国前首相戴#8226;卡梅David Cameron)在承诺举行公投时,要对存在问题的选择架构的另一方面负责。When should voters be asked their opinion about policy questions? Governments vary greatly on the extent to which they rely on direct democracy rather than a combination of representative government plus bureaucratic agencies, such as central banks. 选民应何时被问到他们对于政策问题的看法?在多大程度上依赖直接民主而非代议制政府和官僚机构(例如央行)的结合体,各地政府的做法大不一样。As an example, Switzerland and the state of California regularly rely on referendums to make decisions, but the US government never does.例如,瑞士和美国加州会定期举行公投做出决定,但美国政府从不这样。When governments have the option to use either method, how should they choose? A good rule of thumb is that the more complicated the decision, the less desirable a referendum. 当政府有使用其中任何一种方法的选择时,他们应如何选择?一条很好的经验是,决定越复杂,公投越不可取。And it is hard to think of a more complex choice than Europe to put to voters.很难想象出一个比欧洲更复杂的交给选民决定的选择了。Furthermore, given the ambiguity of Article 50, voters had no way of knowing what outcomes would come from a vote to Remain or Leave. 另外,鉴于第50条的模糊性,选民无法知道留欧或退欧的公投结果将意味着什么。Theresa May, now prime minister, made this point before the vote: The reality is that we do not know on what terms we would have access to the single market.英国新首相特里萨#8226;Theresa May)在公投前就指出:现实是我们不知道我们进入欧洲单一市场的条款会是什么。But the referendum was held, so the question is what to do now. 但公投已经举行了,因此问题是现在怎么办。Certainly a majority of just four percentage points in a nonbinding referendum should not be considered a mandate to hastily invoke Article 50. 当然,在一场不具法律约束力的公投中领先区区4个百分点的多数票,不应被视为一项仓促激活第50条的授权。The vote was more like a straw poll of voter sentiments about a range of issues than a considered evaluation of the costs and benefits of membership of the single market.这场公投更像是衡量选民对一系列问题看法的民意测验,而不是对欧洲单一市场成员国身份的成本与收益的审慎评估。Since voters were given a choice that was impossible to evaluate sensibly, they should be given the opportunity to change their mind if the facts change either via a vote of parliament or a second referendum. 既然选民们是被要求做出不可能理性评估的选择,那么如果事实发生变化,他们应有机会改变心意——要么通过议会投票,要么通过二次公投。In short, Brexit should not mean (an immediate) Brexit.简而言之,英国脱欧不应意味着英国(立即)脱欧。来 /201609/466001

Turkey has warned Russia it will hold Moscow responsible for terror attacks on its own soil in the wake of a deadly car bombing in Ankara and mounting international tensions over the war in Syria.土耳其警告俄罗斯称,它将让俄为土耳其国土上发生的恐怖袭击负责。在此之前,安卡拉刚刚发生了致人死亡的汽车炸弹爆炸事件,而国际社会围绕叙利亚战争产生的矛盾也愈演愈烈。Ahmet Davutoglu, prime minister, said that Wednesday’s suicide attack had been carried out by Salih Necar, a member of the YPG, a Syrian Kurdish militia that the Turkish government denounces as a terrorist group. The attack killed 28 people in the capital’s security district when explosives packed into a car detonated at traffic lights on a busy boulevard.土耳其总理阿赫迈特达乌特奥Ahmet Davutoglu)表示,周三发生的自杀式袭击是由叙利亚库尔德民兵组织“人民保卫军YPG)成员萨利赫蔠慑尔(Salih Necar)发动的。土耳其政府指责YPG是一个恐怖组织。这起袭击发生在土首都安卡拉一个安保严密的地区,当时一辆装有爆炸物的汽车在一个繁忙街道的红绿灯处被引爆,导致28人丧生。But Mr Davutoglu focused some of his toughest comments on Moscow.不过,达乌特奥卢将其部分最严厉的批评留给了俄罗斯政府。“I am warning Russia once more,he said in a televised statement, saying that Moscow’s condemnation of the attack was insufficient. “If these terror attacks continue, they will be as responsible as the YPG.”他在一份电视声明中称,莫斯科方面仅仅谴责这起袭击是不够的。他说:“我再次警告俄罗斯,如果继续发生这类恐怖袭击,他们将承担与YPG同样的责任。”Russia denies any connection with terrorist activities.俄罗斯否认与恐怖活动有任何联系。Mr Davutoglu also asked Turkey’s international allies, especially the US, to treat the YPG, whose full name is the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection s, as a terrorist organisation rather than a partner in the Syrian war.达乌特奥卢还要求土耳其的国际盟友——尤其是美国——将YPG视为恐怖组织、而不是叙利亚战争中的合作伙伴。But, to date, Ankara’s push for other countries to end their support for the Kurdish militia has registered little success.但迄今为止,土耳其政府要求其他国家不再持这个库尔德民兵组织的努力收效甚微。The YPG is backed by the US and other western countries as the most effective Syrian fighting force against Isis. It is also tacitly backed by Russia, whose strikes against mainstream rebels in northern Syria have recently allowed the Kurdish militia to advance.作为打击“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国ISIS)的最有效的叙利亚武装力量,YPG得到了美国及其他西方国家的持。此外,该组织还得到俄罗斯心照不宣的持。后者最近对叙利亚北部的主流反政府军的打击,令这个库尔德民兵组织得以大举进军。YPG总司令部发布的一份声明显示,YPG否认与安卡拉发生的袭击事件有任何关系,称土耳其此举是为了找理由在叙利亚对该组织发动攻势。来 /201602/427485

In past decades, when faced with plebiscites on whether to embrace further European integration, voters across the Continent had a habit of slamming on the brakes though in several instances they later changed their minds.过去几十年中,当就是否加强欧洲联合举行公投时,这块大陆上各地的投票者总是习惯于临时刹车——尽管好几次,他们后来改变了主意。Britain joined the European Economic Community, a forerunner of the European Union, in 1973, during the Conservative government of Prime Minister Edward Heath.1975年,英国曾对欧盟说“Yes”。英国在1973年加入欧盟的前身欧洲经济共同体,当时执政的是保守党政府。第二年上台的工党建议就是否继续留下举行公众投票。The yes camp won a resounding victory 67 percent with the backing of Prime Minister Harold Wilson.在首相哈罗德·威尔逊的持下,说活动赢得大胜7%投票者表示持。June 2, 1992: Danes Reject Maastricht Treaty, at First1992日,丹麦人最开始拒绝了《马斯特里赫特条约》。Sept. 20, 1992: France Approves Maastricht Treaty, Barely19920日,法国以微弱的优势通过了《马斯特里赫特条约》。June 8, 2001: Irish Oppose E.U. Expansion, Initially2001日,爱尔兰人最开始反对欧洲的扩张计划。Sept. 14, 2003: Sweden Refuses the Euro20034日,瑞典拒绝加入欧元区。May 29, 2005: France Vetoes European Constitution20059日,法国否决了《欧洲宪法条约》。June 1, 2005: Dutch Voters Also Reject the Constitution2005日,荷兰也对《欧洲宪法条约》进行否决。June 12, 2008: Another Irish No Vote, Followed by a Flip-Flop20082日,爱尔兰人投出反对票,之后撤回。来 /201606/450596A group of hard-line Iranian news media organizations says it has raised 0,000 to add to a bounty for the killing of the British novelist Salman Rushdie.一群立场强硬的伊朗新闻媒体组织称,它们已经募集0万美元,用于提高刺杀英国小说家萨尔曼·拉什Salman Rushdie)的赏金。Iran’s former supreme leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, issued a fatwa, or religious edict, in 1989 calling for Mr. Rushdie to be killed because of his book “The Satanic Verses,which the ayatollah found to be blasphemous and insulting toward Muslims. Mr. Rushdie has since then been living largely out of sight and under the protection of bodyguards.1989年,伊朗前最高精神领袖阿亚图拉·鲁霍拉·霍梅Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini)发布“法特瓦fatwa),既宗教指令,悬赏刺杀拉什迪,因为霍梅尼认为拉什迪的作品《撒旦诗篇The Satanic Verses)亵渎神圣,是对穆斯林的侮辱。从那以后。拉什迪大部分时间里一直在保镖的保护下隐居。The semiofficial Fars news agency, one of the organizations involved, reported that the new reward money was gathered during a trade fair called the Islamic Republic’s Digital Media Exhibition. It ed the secretary of the exhibition saying that the 0,000 had been announced last week to mark the anniversary of the 1989 fatwa.这些团体中包括半官方性质的Fars新闻社,据它报道,这笔新赏金是在名为“伊斯兰共和国数字媒体展览”的交易会上募集的。它引用该展览秘书长的话,称0万美元赏金是上周公布的,正赶989年法特瓦的周年纪念。The Iranian government distanced itself from calls for Mr. Rushdie’s death under former President Mohammad Khatami, a reformist who declared in 1998 that the fatwa had ended. But the religious authorities said it could not be withdrawn by anyone other than Ayatollah Khomeini, who died four months after issuing it. His successor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said in 2005 that the fatwa remained valid.在前总统穆罕默德·卡塔Mohammad Khatami)领导下的伊朗政府与拉什迪的谋杀令脱离了关系998年,身为改革主义者的卡塔米宣布该法特瓦失效。但宗教权威人士称,只有阿亚图拉·霍梅尼本人才能终结这个命令,而谋杀令颁布四个月之后,他就去世了。他的继任者阿亚图·阿里·哈梅内伊(Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)005年宣布,这条法特瓦依然有效。The decree had aly put a considerable price on Mr. Rushdie’s head: A religious organization called the 15 Khordad Foundation initially offered a .7 million reward to anyone carrying out the fatwa, then increased it to .3 million in 2012. The new money, bringing the total bounty to nearly million, came from 40 news outlets listed by Fars, which said that it had contributed ,000.早先的刺杀令已经为拉什迪的人头开出了相当高的价格。一个名叫5 Khordad 基金会”的宗教组织出价270万美元,奖励执行这条法特瓦的人,2012年又把奖金提高到330万美元。如今这笔新的款项把赏金提高到将00万美元,来自Fars新闻社列举的40家新闻媒体,该社也提供了3万美元。Iranian hard-line organizations tend to make symbolic gestures involving the Rushdie fatwa every year around its anniversary, Feb. 14. Whether the bounty really would be paid is unclear. Many news organizations in Iran do not turn a profit, and some are subsidized by state organizations.这些伊朗强硬组织每年24日都会就刺杀拉什迪的法特瓦做出象征性姿态。赏金是否会真正被付,目前尚不明确。伊朗的很多新闻组织都不盈利,有些出版物是由国家机构补贴的。The announcement highlights the continuing political infighting in Iran as elections approach for Parliament and the Assembly of Experts, a council that would choose the next supreme leader. The government of President Hassan Rouhani has promised to improve relations with the West, while his hard-line opponents have campaigned against any opening. Analysts said the hard-liners may have been seeking an electoral edge by raising the Rushdie matter now.这项声明表明,随着议会及“专家会议”选举(Assembly of Experts)的临近,伊朗内部的政治斗争仍在继续——“专家会议”是负责挑选下任最高领导人的组织。哈桑·鲁哈尼( Hassan Rouhani)政府承诺改善与西方的关系,而他的强硬派反对者们则反对任何开放政策。分析师们称,通过提高拉什迪一事的悬赏金额,这些强硬分子可能是希望在选举中谋求好处。“This is just to overshadow the elections, because the hard-liners and their media want to dissuade people from voting in large numbers,said Mojgan Faraji, a reformist journalist. She said the hard-liners drag up issues from the past to confuse people and to “make other issues more important than voting.”“这只是为了影响选举,因为强硬分子和他们掌握的媒体希望组织人们大规模投票,”改革派记者穆耶根·法拉Mojgan Faraji)说。她说,强硬分子翻过去的老账,是为了让人们感到困惑,从而“让其他问题显得比选举更加重要”。来 /201602/428250

China must hold a Winter Olympics that is ;clean as the snow; when it hosts the event in 2022, President Xi Jinping said on Friday, after two corruption scandals involving Chinese officials linked to the Games.在两起冬奥会相关官员贪污丑闻曝光之后,国家主席习近平在上周五的一次发言中表示,2022年由中国承办的冬奥会必须“和白雪一样纯洁干净”。Beijing, along with the nearby city of Zhangjiakou, won the right to host the Games last year. The only other city bidding to host the event was Kazakhstans Almaty, after other prospective cities dropped out citing costs and other worries.去年,北京和邻近城市张家口赢得了举办下一届冬奥会的资格。其他城市因经费不足和其他问题而退出竞争,当时唯一和北京竞争的城市是哈萨克斯坦的阿拉木图市;Strengthen supervision, let the Beijing Winter Olympics and Paralympics be as pure and clean as the snow and ice,; the report paraphrased him as saying.报道转述了习主席的讲:“通过加强监管力度,让北京冬奥会和残奥会像冰雪一样纯净。”The run-up to Chinas bid last year was overshadowed by corruption investigations into a deputy sports minister who had sat on Chinas Olympics committee and the Communist Party boss of Hebei province, where Zhangjiakou is located, who had attended meetings of the bid committee.去年在竞逐承办资格之际,中国爆出了重大腐败丑闻。涉案官员包括一位体育部副部长兼中国奥委会前成员,以及一位曾参加过竞标会的河北党内高级人员。Speaking at a meeting with senior Chinese Winter Games and sports officials, Xi said there must be strict budget management to ensure the cost of hosting the Games was kept under control, in comments carried by state television. Xi made no direct mention of either corruption scandal.中央电视台在就此事件作出的中表明,在和中国冬奥会高级官员及体育部官员的会面上,习近平主席要求必须要有严格的预算管理措施,来确保主办赛事的经费都在控制之下。不过习近平主席并未直接提及两起腐败案中的任何一起。Xi, who doubles as party and military chief, has pursued a relentless campaign against deep-rooted corruption since assuming power three years ago, vowing to go after powerful ;tigers; as well as lowly ;flies;.作为中国共产党主席及军委主席,习近平自三年前上任以来,不遗余力地打击腐败官员,誓要在打击“大老虎”的同时也要抓住“小苍蝇”。来 /201603/433461

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