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时间:2018年02月21日 23:28:15

The US in March recorded its biggest monthly trade deficit since the 2008 global financial crisis, fuelling concerns that the economy shrank in the first three months of the year.3月美国出现自2008年全球金融危机以来最大的单月贸易逆差,引发美国经济在今年头三个月出现收缩的忧虑。The politically sensitive goods and services deficit rose to .4bn in March, up more than 40 per cent from the .9bn recorded in February. Exports rose less than 1 per cent while imports grew 7.7 per cent amid increased US demand for cars and mobile phones.3月,政治上十分敏感的商品和务贸易逆差增至514亿美元,相比2月份59亿美元增长了0%。随着美国对汽车和手机的需求增加,美国的进口增长了7.7%,而出口增长还不到1%。The figures made for awkward ing for US policy makers. They came as Barack Obama, the president, attempts to make the case for a Pacific Rim trade pact with Japan and 10 other economies, amid criticism that past deals have caused deficits to balloon and triggered an exodus of jobs overseas.这样的数据让美国的政策制定者感到尴尬。这些数据发布之际,美国总统巴拉#8226;奥巴Barack Obama)正试图明与日本和其0个经济体达成一项环太平洋贸易协定的合理性,而外界则批评过去的贸易协定已导致逆差大幅增加,并致使工作机会流失到海外地区。The data also reinforced the dilemma facing the US Federal Reserve as it #173;ponders when to raise rates and bring monetary policy back to something approaching normality.这些数据还让正在考虑何时上调利率,使货币政策尽量回复常态的美联Fed)面临更加窘迫的两难境地。On the one hand the increase in imports was a clear sign of strength in the consumption-driven US economy with imports of consumer goods rising strongly. The March figures were also distorted by a strike at west coast ports, which is now over.一方面,进口的增长,尤其是消费品进口的强势增长,是靠消费拉动的美国经济走强的明显标志月的数据还受到现已结束的美国西海岸港口罢工的影响。On the other hand, yesterday’s data make it likely that aly anaemic #173;economic growth figures for the first quarter will be revised downwards, with economists predicting a contraction.另一方面,昨日发布的数据可能使本已乏力的第一季度经济增长数据面临下修,经济学家在预测经济出现收缩。Last week’s gross domestic product data, which showed the economy grew at an annual rate of just 0.2 per cent, assumed that the trade deficit dragged growth down by 1.25 percentage points. But the worse than expected March data meant first-quarter growth would end up another 0.5-0.7 percentage points lower, economists said.上周的国内生产总GDP)数据显示美国经济的年增长率仅.2%,该数据假设贸易逆差将GDP增长拉低.25个百分点。但经济学家们表示,坏于预期月逆差数据意味着,第一季度增长率最终还要下.5.7个百分点。The big question now is how long the slowdown in the US economy will #173;continue. Fed policy makers have said they believe the overall slowdown has been due, at least partly, to temporary factors, including the ports strike and a harsh winter in the east.现在最大的问题是美国的经济放缓会持续多长时间。美联储的政策制定者表示,他们相信美国经济的总体放缓至少应部分归咎于临时性因素,包括港口罢工和美国东部严寒的冬季。Many economists still expect the US economy to bounce back in the second quarter.许多经济学家仍然预期美国经济将在第二季度回弹。A 20 per cent surge in consumer goods imports in March and a 10.2 per cent increase in car imports were signs that the economy is strong, said Paul Ashworth, chief US economist for consultants Capital Economics.咨询公司凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的首席美国经济学家保#8226;阿什沃Paul Ashworth)表示月消费品进口激0%,汽车进口增0.2%,这些迹象表明美国经济表现强劲。The consumer goods imports figures showed that “US retailers anticipate a big pick-up in domestic consumption growth in the second quarter he said. “Accordingly, we still think that second-quarter GDP growth will be above 3 per cent annualised.”消费品进口数据表明“美国的零售商预测国内消费增长将在第二季度大幅上升,”他说,“相应地,我们依然认为第二季度的GDP年化增长率将高于3%。”The latest data showed the US trade deficit with China rose .5bn to .8bn in March with imports increasing .9bn to .1bn.最新数据表明,3月美国对华贸易逆差上升105亿美元至378亿美元,其中进口上升109亿美元至471亿美元。The deficit with Japan, the other big economy in the Pacific Rim trade talks, increased to .3bn in March thanks to a .2bn rise in imports.对于环太平洋贸易谈判中的重要经济体日本,3月美国贸易逆差上升3亿美元,其中进口上升2亿美元。来 /201505/373702

Here we go again. Russian artillery fires and a convoy filled with aid, the Russians say rolls across Ukraine’s border, where an awful but undeclared battle between Moscow’s proxies and the Kiev government for control of the country’s east has been under way for months. Kiev calls this “a direct invasion What will Washington and its European allies do?又是老一套。俄罗斯炮兵开火,而(俄罗斯人说,满载援助的)护卫队开过乌克兰边境——在那里,虽然没有正式宣战,但莫斯科的代理人和乌克兰政府已经为争夺乌克兰东部控制权而爆发了一场持续数月的可怕战争。乌克兰政府将此称为“直接的侵略”。华盛顿及其欧洲盟友将如何应对?Recent history suggests there will be many who argue against doing much. Why? Because President Vladimir Putin , Russia’s tough-guy leader, has been playing the west like a fiddle, giving just enough to pretend he is something other than the ultranationalist autocrat he has always been.最近的历史表明,将会有许多人反对采取严厉措斀?原因何在?因为俄罗斯的硬汉领导人、总统弗拉基米#8226;普京(Vladimir Putin)一直在欺骗西方,恰到好处地假装他不是极端民族主义独裁者,虽然他自始至终都是这么一个人。Mr Putin, the former KGB spy, is a master at giving his western apologists room to manoeuvre; at putting a case out there, no matter how implausible. This was true from the very start of his rule, when I was a correspondent in Moscow for The Washington Post and he was launching his crackdown on independent media and on tycoons such as Mikhail Khodorkovsky. His western apologists were happy to take Mr Putin at his word, that he was merely cleaning up the mess left by Boris Yeltsin, his predecessor, while failing to account for his efforts to dismantle the admittedly flawed democracy he inherited. “If by democracy, you mean the dissolution of the state, we don’t need it,he once told western correspondents. Few paid attention at first.前克格勃(KGB)间谍普京非常擅长给他的西方辩护者发挥的空间,而且非常擅长编理由,无论它多么不合情理。他上台伊始就是这样,当时我担任《华盛顿邮报The Washington Post)驻莫斯科记者,而他正开始打压独立媒体和米哈伊尔#8226;霍多尔科夫斯Mikhail Khodorkovsky)等寡头。他的西方辩护者乐于相信他的话,即他只是在清理前任鲍里#8226;叶利Boris Yeltsin)留下的乱摊子,尽管他未能解释他为何努力摧毁自己继承的民主体制——诚然,它是有些缺陷。普京曾经对西方记者表示:“如果你所说的民主是让国家解体的意思,那我们不需要这种民主。”最初没什么人注意这一点。But it is not just Mr Putin’s skill at telling the west what he wants it to hear. He has also been lucky in his friends as well as his enemies. And by friends, I am not talking about the paid shills or leftwing western apologists who publicly defend him, disregarding his invade-the-neighbours, crack-down-at-home tendencies.但普京不仅仅是善于告诉西方他希望让他们听到的东西。他还有运气——不论从朋友还是敌人来看。我在这里所说的朋友不是他花钱雇的托儿,也不是无视他对外侵略邻国、对内打压异己的倾向而公开为其辩护的西方左翼人士。No, I am talking about the much more dangerous kind of sentiment that benefits Mr Putin and thrives in western capitals and usually, though much more quietly, prevails in debates over what to actually do in response to Russian aggression. These folks do not pretend that Putinism is great; they are not excusing his human rights violations or the cartoonish corruption of the Kremlin’s ruling elite. Usually, they are just being “realists Germany and other parts of Europe are too dependent on Russian energy to confront Moscow; the US, while terribly sorry, does not have a true “national interestin who controls which part of eastern Ukraine. Escalation could lead to a far more dangerous crisis, they argue, often persuasively, in this centennial anniversary of Europe falling into the Great War.我说的朋友是那种危险得多的情绪,这种让普京受益的情绪在西方各国非常盛行,而且虽然更加不动声色,却通常在针对俄罗斯侵略行为应采取何种实际行动的辩论中占据主导地位。这些人不会佯称,普京主义非常伟大,他们没有为他侵犯人权或克里姆林宫执政精英夸张的腐败行径辩解。通常来说,他们只是“现实主义者”。德国和其他欧洲国家过于依赖俄罗斯的能源,从而无法与莫斯科对抗;美国尽管表示极为遗憾,但它在谁控制乌克兰东部哪个部分的问题上没有真正的“国家利益”。在欧洲陷入一战一百周年之际,他们声称紧张局势升级可能导致更为危险的危机,而且这种说法常常颇有说力。And there is much validity to these arguments, which also have the benefit of being exactly what policy makers in an exploding world generally want to hear. The Washington Post’s David Ignatius recently characterised the debate about Mr Putin in the west as one between the “squeezersand the “dealers well, these are the dealers, and they are y to make a deal.这些观点很令人信,也正是政策制定者们在一个冲突不断的世界里通常希望听到的观点。《华盛顿邮报》的大卫#8226;伊格内修(David Ignatius)最近将西方关于普京的辩论描述为“挤压者”和“交易者”之间的辩论:恩,这些是交易者,他们准备缔结交易。Of course, Mr Putin’s takeover of the Crimean peninsula this year and the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 by a Russian-supplied surface-to-air missile over eastern Ukraine did provoke a real response: sanctions on Russia’s financial sector, its energy modernisation, threats of more. There has been nothing more infuriating to US President Barack Obama and his advisers than being told time and again by his hardline Republican critics that he has been soft on the Kremlin. Exasperated White House officials have told me repeatedly there would not have been any European sanctions, never mind tough ones, without constant nudging and pushing from the White House. And I believe it.当然,普京今年吞并克里米亚半岛,以及马航MH17航班在乌克兰东部被俄罗斯提供的地对空导弹击落,的确激起西方动真格的反应:对俄罗斯金融部门的制裁,对其能源现代化的禁制,还有威胁施加更多制裁。持强硬立场的共和党批评人士一再斥责美国总统巴拉#8226;奥巴Barack Obama)及其顾问对克里姆林宫太软弱了,没有比这更让后者恼火的了。愤怒的白宫官员们再三告诉我,如果不是白宫不断施压敦促,欧洲都不会实施制裁,更别说出台严厉的制裁措施了。我相信他们说的是真的。But it is also true that, while Mr Obama has pushed, and pushed hard, for economic retaliation, he has made clear that more assertive military measures are unlikely and even resisted other measures, such as stationing more troops in eastern Europe, bolstering Ukraine’s forces and the like. And besides, it is not just a willingness to accommodate and look the other way that give Mr Putin an advantage when it comes to dealing with Washington.但同样千真万确的是,尽管奥巴马推动、而且是大力推动经济报复,但他也明确表示,美国不太可能出台更为坚决的军事措施,甚至抵制采取其他措施,比如在东欧部署更多军队,持乌克兰军队等等。此外,让普京在与华盛顿打交道时具有优势的,不只是其愿意顺应形势并从对方角度看问题。The accelerating crises elsewhere in the world are also, unfortunately, likely to be good news for the Kremlin. With Iraq exploding and the Pentagon talking in apocalyptic terms about the dangers of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, the al-Qaeda spin-off known as Isis, and with Israel at war in Gaza and racial unrest at home, Mr Obama and his administration just are not going to have the capacity to focus on the festering war in Ukraine unless they are forced to. “I worry about Obama and team now being pulled into Iraq and losing focus on Ukraine,a former senior official told me the other day. Once again the refrain will be: “The EU has to lead.”遗憾的是,世界其他地方危机加剧也可能对克里姆林宫是好消息。随着伊拉克冲突爆发和五角大楼以大难临头的语气谈论基地组织(al-Qaeda)分“伊拉克与黎凡特伊斯兰国ISIS)的危险,随着以色列在加沙开战以及国内爆发种族主义骚乱,奥巴马政府无法集中精力应对乌克兰日益激化的战争,除非他们被逼得这么做。一位前高官有一天告诉我:“我担心奥巴马及其团队的精力现在被吸引到伊拉克冲突上,而不再关注乌克兰。”人们将再次老调重弹:“欧盟必须挑头。”And does anyone really think that it will?真的有人认为欧盟会挑头吗?来 /201409/325348

Any western leader who launched a military operation abroad in the middle of a stinging recession would have a hard time convincing the nation to pay for it. But as the Russian government sent its draft budget for 2016 to the Duma on Friday night, nobody even mentioned President Vladimir Putins bombing campaign in Syria. 西方领导人如果在日子难熬的经济衰退期间发起海外军事行动,都会尝到说国民为其买单的苦头。但俄罗斯政府上周五晚向国家杜马(Duma)提交2016年预算草案时,甚至没人提到弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)总统在叙利亚发起的轰炸行动。Low oil prices, a weak rouble and western sanctions have caused the countrys economy to contract by 3.4 per cent in the first half of the year and, as Russia relies on oil-related revenues for half of its budget, this has forced some belt-tightening. 油价下跌、卢布疲软以及西方制裁已造成俄罗斯经济今年上半年萎缩3.4%,由于俄罗斯一半的预算依靠与石油相关的财政收入,这迫使莫斯科在一些方面勒紧腰带。Pensions, for example, will increase by no more than 4 per cent next year, according to the budget far short of the inflation rate of 12 per cent. 例如,根据预算,明年养老金的增幅将不超%——远低于12%的通胀率。Despite all this, Moscow can easily afford its military operation in Syria both because it is cheap compared with similar endeavours by the US, and because 17 consecutive years of funding increases and an opaque budget have helped to fill the militarys pockets, say defence experts. 防务专家称,尽管如此,莫斯科能够轻松负担得起在叙利亚的军事行动——既是因为与美国的类似作战行动相比,俄军的开较少,也是因为连续17年的军费增长以及不透明的预算帮助充实了俄军的底气。Even if Russia continued its air strikes at the current level for a full year, it would use less than 3 per cent of the funds budgeted for national defence in 2016, according to IHS Janes, the defence research group, and Financial Times calculations. 根据防务研究机构简氏防IHS Janes)以及英国《金融时报》的计算,即使俄罗斯继续以当前水平进行一整年的空中打击,所需资金也不016年国防预算的3%。“We believe a campaign like the one they are running there right now would cost between .3m and m a day,said Ben Moores, senior analyst at IHS Janes. 简氏防务高级分析师本·穆尔斯(Ben Moores)表示:“我们认为,像他们如今正在开展的这类行动,每天的花费介于230万至400万美元之间。”A sum of Rbs3.15tn (bn) has been earmarked for national defence expenditure next year. The government reversed some earlier planned defence budget cuts this week, so the 2016 draft defence budget marks a 0.8 per cent increase over this year, but both as a share of total public spending and of gross domestic product, it is decreasing slightly for the first time in years. 共计3.15万亿卢布10亿美元)已被指定用于明年的国防出。上周,俄政府扭转了一些早先计划的国防预算削减,因此,2016年的国防预算将比今年增加0.8%,但其在公共出总额和国内生产总GDP)所占比重将出现多年来的首次略微减少。However, more than a quarter of this years budget was earmarked for military expenditure, and vast parts of the military budget are secret. 然而,今年预算的逾四分之一被划拨给了军事开,而军事预算的绝大部分都是机密。This absence of public oversight and of a visible financial burden allows Mr Putin to continue or even expand his high-profile geopolitical challenge to the west. 缺乏公众监督以及财政负担不明显,让普京得以继续甚至扩大他对西方高调发起的地缘政治挑战。On the back of constant state television coverage, which describes Russias three-week bombing campaign in Syria as a fight against evil, the independent pollster Levada found that support for Moscows military action had soared from a mere 14 per cent in late September to more than 70 per cent. 俄罗斯国家电视台的不间断报道(将俄在叙利亚持续已3周的轰炸行动描述为打击邪恶的斗争)产生了效果,独立民调机构列瓦达(Levada)发现,对莫斯科发起的军事行动的持率已从9月下旬的14%飙升至0%。Mr Putins support ratings had hit an all-time high of 89.9 per cent, state-backed pollster VTsIOM said this week. 政府持的民意调查机构VTsIOM上周称,普京的持率创下89.9%的历史新高。Mr Moores calculation of the war cost is based on the assumption that Russia has 36 fighter aircraft and 20 helicopters at its Latakia air base which fly an average of 30 sorties a day and drop five bombs per sortie. In addition, he takes into account the presence of at least 1,500 soldiers deployed, plus naval support. 简氏防务的穆尔斯对俄罗斯参战成本的计算基于这样假设:俄罗斯在拉塔基Latakia)空军基地拥有36架战斗机0架直升机,平均每天出0架次,每架次投掷5枚炸弹。此外,他还算入了俄罗斯部署的至500名官兵,以及俄海军的持。According to IHS data, Russia could sustain its troops in Syria at little more than one-tenth of the roughly m it costs the US per day to support the same number of soldiers in Afghanistan. 简氏防务的数据显示,相比美军在阿富汗部署同样数量军人每日所需的大00万美元开销,俄罗斯维持叙利亚驻军所需费用仅为十分之一多一点。This is because Russia can save fuel by sustaining the troops by sea, its soldiers salaries, food and medical bills are lower, and the military personnel are believed to be concentrated at base rather than sp out in combat. 这是因为俄罗斯可通过海路补给军队以节省燃料,俄军官兵的薪水、伙食及医疗费用更低,而且俄军事人员据信大都集中在基地,而非分散于许多前沿阵地。According to recent figures released by the Pentagon, the US has so far spent roughly bn in its 14-month campaign against Isis Islamist fighters roughly m a day. 五角大楼近期公布的数据显示,打击“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国Isis)伊斯兰主义武装分4个月以来,美国迄今已在军事行动上出0亿美元——每天约1000万美元。Other foreign and Russian defence experts said it was impossible to calculate the cost of the Syria intervention accurately, due to Moscows opaque defence budget. But they agree that it is likely to be minuscule compared with total military spending. 其他外国及俄罗斯防务专家称,鉴于莫斯科方面不透明的国防预算,准确计算出干预叙利亚的花费是不可能的。但他们一致认为,与总军事开相比,这很可能只是很小一部分。“This [Syria campaign spending] is going to just disappear in the huge black hole that is our countrys military budget,said Vasily Zatsepin, an expert on military economics at the independent Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy in Moscow. ;The transparency of our defence spending is decreasing from one defence minister to the next.; “这(叙利亚军事行动开)将消失在我国军事预算的巨大黑洞中,”莫斯科盖达尔经济政策研究所(Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)军事经济学专家瓦西里?扎采Vasily Zatsepin)说,“我们国防出的透明度正随着国防部长的更替而不断降低。”Russias national defence budget accounts for less than half of the countrys total military expenditure, which is expected to hit 5.42 per cent of GDP this year, according to Julian Cooper, an expert on Russian military spending at the University of Birmingham. On top of that, the military spends each year an amount equivalent to 60 per cent of the national defence budget on arms procurement, maintenance and development. 根据伯明翰大University of Birmingham)俄罗斯军事专家朱利安·库珀(Julian Cooper)的分析,俄罗斯国防预算占该国总军事开的不到一半,后者预计今年将达到GDP.42%。除此之外,俄军每年在武器采购、维护与开发上的出相当于国防预算0%。A senior government official said the cost of the Syria operation was expected to be covered by reducing the number and scale of domestic military exercises. The ministry of defence does not disclose details on the cost of such exercises. 一名政府高官称,预计叙利亚军事行动的花销将通过缩减国内军事演练的次数和规模来弥补。俄国防部并不披露此类演练的详尽开。IHSs calculations exclude the launch of 26 cruise missiles against Syrian insurgents on October 7, Mr Putins birthday. A Russian official said the use of the missiles was ;very expensive;, but defence experts noted that a smaller number would have been launched as part of an exercise anyway. 简氏防务的计算没有包含10日(普京生日当天)向叙利亚反对派武装分子发射6枚巡航导弹。一名俄罗斯官员称,使用导弹“非常昂贵”,但防务专家指出,俄军本来就准备作为演练的一部分发射一些导弹,尽管数量较少。Russian military experts said several other military expenditure categories also offered reserves that could be used for the Syria war. 俄罗斯军事专家称,其他几种军费开类别也提供了可用于叙利亚战争的储备。“Even though the Russian armed forces officially have 1m personnel, everybody knows that the real number is closer to 850,000, but the ministry of finance still provides funds for 1m,said Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Russian defence think-tank. 俄罗斯防务智库战略与技术分析中Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies)主任鲁斯兰·普霍夫(Ruslan Pukhov)说:“虽然官方称俄罗斯武装部队拥00万人,大家都知道实际数字更接5万,但财政部仍按100万人拨款。”Funds claimed by the ministry of defence for expenditure such as bonuses for soldiers could be channelled into the war effort, he said. 他说,国防部所称的一些开——如发给士兵的奖金——可能被转拨为战争出。Several defence analysts added that an expected slowdown in procurements under a multiyear armaments programme would free up money for the Syria campaign. Moreover, they expect that Moscow is lowering the cost of the war by using expired ammunition stocks and making Syria foot at least part of the Russian air forces fuel bill. 多位防务分析师补充说,一项多年军备计划本来就预计会出现的放缓,将为在叙利亚的军事行动腾出资金。此外,他们认为,莫斯科正通过使用库存的过期弹药,并让叙利亚负担俄空军的一部分燃料费用,来降低战争出。来 /201510/405797


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