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When leaders from throughout the Asia-Pacific region met in Lima last weekend, one topic dominated the gathering: Donald Trump’s threat to ditch the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).当亚太各国领导人上周末汇聚利马开会时,笼罩一切的一个话题是:唐纳德.特朗Donald Trump)威胁抛弃12个国家签署的《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定TPP)。The president-elect says he will begin his administration by serving notice of US withdrawal from the trade deal, which he labels a disaster for our country. 这位当选总统表示,他一上任就将宣布美国撤出该贸易协议。他认为,TPP对我国而言是一场灾难。His plans have stoked fears throughout the region that the era of Washington’s hegemony over trade, and its geopolitical influence more generally, is coming to an end. 他的计划加剧了整个亚太的恐惧:华盛顿方面在贸易事务上发挥领导作用,以及在更广泛意义上发挥地缘政治影响力的时代正在走向终结。In Lima, a clearly delighted China signalled it was more than happy to take over as the main driver of trade policy.明显兴高采烈的中国方面在利马表示,它非常乐于接替美国,承担起贸易政策主要推动国的角色。But while Mr Trump could do serious damage with another of his threats huge import tariffs on China and Mexico history suggests the importance of bilateral or regional deals in shaping world trade is often overstated. 但是,尽管特朗普的另一项威胁——对中国和墨西哥征收高额关税——可能带来严重损害,然而历史似乎表明,双边或地区协议对于塑造世界贸易的重要性经常是被夸大的。Nor does it appear that trade agreements are necessarily a cause rather than a consequence of geopolitical influence.贸易协定必然是地缘政治影响力的因(而不是果)的观点看来也不正确。The fear that a state-of-the-art US model will be replaced by an inferior Chinese system of rules looks overdone. 对于先进的美国模式将被落后的中国规则体系取代的担忧,看来有点过头。Beijing does not have an extensive rival set of laws to propagate. 北京方面拿不出一整套与美国构成竞争的法律来推广。Its favoured trade pact, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, is known to negotiators as the stapler. 中国持的《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定RCEP)被谈判代表们称为订书机。It does little more than gather together existing bilateral and regional agreements and has little content beyond cuts in goods tariffs.它只不过是汇集现有的双边和地区协定,除了削减商品关税之外,几乎没有什么内容。The China model is not a disturbing diversion from a move towards deeper economic integration: it is essentially the status quo. 中国模式并没有令人不安地偏离深化经济一体化的努力:它其实就是现状。If TPP fails, the US will have fumbled a chance to liberalise some trade in services and restrain state-owned enterprises from distorting markets. 如果TPP夭折了,美国将错过一个推动一部分务贸易自由化、阻止国有企业扭曲市场的机会。But that is a missed opportunity, not a catastrophe.但这毕竟将是一个错失的机会,而不是一场大灾难。More generally, eliding the difference between official agreements and real cross-border commerce in goods and services leads to overestimating the importance of what officials say as opposed to what business people do.在更为普遍的意义上,忽略官方协定与实际的跨境商品务贸易之间的差别,导致人们高估官员言论(而不是商人的实际行为)的重要性。The rapid integration of Asian markets over the past 25 years, often to join US-oriented supply chains, was driven mainly by technical improvements in communication and digitisation, not formal reciprocal bilateral or regional trade pacts. 过去25年里亚洲市场的快速一体化(往往是为了加入面向美国的供应链)的主要推动力是通信与数字化方面的技术进步,而不是互惠平等的正式双边和地区贸易协定。The US has signed no large trade deal in Asia since the Uruguay Round of multilateral talks was completed in 1994, apart from bilaterals with South Korea and Singapore. 994年乌拉圭回合多边谈判结束后,除了与韩国和新加坡签署双边协定,美国并未在亚洲签署大型贸易协议。Its influence has come from American businesses and consumers, not bureaucrats.美国的影响力来自美国企业和消费者,并非美国官员。Instead, the most important liberalisation was a wave of unilateral tariff-cutting by emerging economies in the early 1990s, followed by a voluntary open agreement on information technology goods, not a conventional trade deal. 相反,最重要的自由化是新兴经济体990年代初发起的一波单边削减关税行动,以及后来围绕IT产品达成的自愿开放协议,而不是常规的贸易协定。Governments that want to open their markets will continue to do so, even without the TPP to coerce them.想要放开本国市场的政府将继续这么做,即使没有TPP强迫它们也是如此。As for the geopolitical role of trade deals, they may act as symbolic consummations of a foreign policy relationship, but do not necessarily deepen ties by themselves. 至于贸易协议的地缘政治角色,它们或许象征着外交政策关系达到圆满境界,但本身未必能深化双边关系。For example, Washington showed solidarity with market-oriented Mexican governments in the late 1980s and early 1990s by including Mexico in the North American Free Trade Agreement. 比如,在1980年代末和1990年代初,华盛顿方面为了同以市场为导向的墨西哥政府展现团结,把墨西哥纳入了北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)。Two decades later, Nafta is not visibly bolstering ties. 20年后,看不出NAFTA对两国关系有撑作用。Instead, it has, perhaps unfairly, become a reviled symbol of American deindustrialisation.相反,(这一点也许不公平)NAFTA成了饱受诟病的美国去工业化象征。This is not to play down concerns about the US’s future in the Asia Pacific. 这不是要淡化美国在亚太未来的担忧。If the US decides to draw back from its security role in the region, it would undermine the country’s prestige as the indispensable nation. 如果美国决定不再在亚太发挥安全保障角色,那将破坏美国作为不可或缺的国家的威望。But that is almost entirely unconnected with whether a particular trade deal succeeds or not. 但是,这跟某项特定的贸易协议成功与否几乎毫无关系。There are many other worries about Mr Trump’s trade policies, notably his calls for tariffs that could set off destructive trade wars. 特朗普的贸易政策还引起其他方面的担忧——尤其是他的关税呼吁可能引发毁灭性的贸易战。But the history of trade pacts as an instrument of foreign policy suggests the US role in Asia, and Chinese ambitions to replace it, will be determined by far more than just TPP.但是,贸易协定作为一种外交政策工具的历史似乎表明,美国在亚洲的角色、以及中国在亚洲取代美国的雄心,都将远远不是一个TPP所能决定的。来 /201612/481327Those calls came as APEC ministers on Friday instructed officials to develop a work plan to pursue a Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific, which Beijing has been pushing as an alternative to the TPP. 这些呼呼正值上周五APEC部长会议上各部长命令官员制定工作计划,推动建立亚太自贸区(Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific,北京方面一直在推动让它成为TPP之外的另一个选择)。A growing number of countries have also said in recent days that they are examining joining another Chinese-led TPP rival, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, or RCEP. 近日,还有越来越多的国家表示,正在考虑加入另一个中国主导的、与TPP竞争的协定——《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定RCEP)。APEC officials said that Mr Trump’s election and what was being as a signal that the US would pull back from its current leadership role in the region had created a new atmosphere ahead of this weekend’s leaders summit. APEC成员国官员称,特朗普当选美国总统以及外界将这解读为美国将放弃目前在该地区领导角色的信号,改变了上周末APEC领导人会议前的气氛。There is a different dynamic around the table. 会议桌上是不一样的状态。People are hedging their bets, said one senior official from an APEC country. 人们在为自己下的赌注对冲风险,APEC某成员国的一位高级官员表示。Mike Froman, the US trade representative, said at a meeting of TPP ministers on Friday that other countries had discussed moving ahead without the US 美国贸易代表迈克.弗罗Mike Froman)上周五在与TPP国家的部长们举行的会议上表示,其他国家讨论了在没有美国的情况下继续推进TPP的可胀?Republican leaders in Congress have said since Mr Trump’s victory that they would not allow its ratification to go forward. 自从特朗普获胜以来,美国国会的共和党领袖一直称,他们不会允许再推进批准TPP的进程。Mr Trump put his opposition to the TPP at the heart of his campaign, which used an antitrade message to cater to disgruntled blue-collar voters in rust belt swing states such as Ohio and Michigan. 特朗普把反对TPP放在了其竞选的核心位置,在俄亥俄和密歇根等铁锈地带的摇摆州,他的竞选造势利用了反对贸易的信息来迎合不满的蓝领选民。But other APEC countries were also making clear to the US that they were looking to China for leadership now, he said. 但是,弗罗曼称,APEC其他成员国也向美国明确表示,他们现在正期望中国担任领导角色。This is playing out in real time, Mr Froman told reporters. 这眼下就在上演,弗罗曼向记者表示,We see people around the table here that are now saying that if the TPP doesn’t move forward they are going to have to put their eggs in an RCEP basket. 我们看到来这里参加会议的人说,如果TPP无法推进,他们将不得不把自己的鸡蛋放进RCEP的篮子里。Eduardo Ferreyros, Peru’s trade minister, said APEC ministers meeting on Friday had agreed that we are not going back to protectionism. 秘鲁外贸部长爱德华多.费雷罗斯(Eduardo Ferreyros)表示,上周五的APEC部长会议已经达成一致,我们不会退回贸易保护主义。We understand that the challenges ahead are great, but we strongly believe that if we continue working on trade liberalisation and facilitation, we will contribute to greater efficiency and competitiveness, he said. 我们清楚未来的挑战巨大,但我们坚信,如果我们继续致力于贸易自由化和便利化,我们将大大提高效率和竞争力,他说。But other leaders warned that governments needed to do a better job of helping to address the gripes of those who felt left behind by globalisation. 但其他领导人警告称,各国政府需要更妥善地帮助化解那些感觉被全球化抛在后面的群体的不满。It is not just a matter of education. 这不仅仅是教育问题。It is also a matter of making sure the [economic] reality matches the rhetoric [about free trade and globalisation], said Lee Hsien Loong, Singapore’s prime minister. 也是一个确保(经济)现实与(关于自由贸易和全球化的)宣传之词相匹配的问题,新加坡总理李显Lee Hsien Loong)说,People have to feel that they have a brighter future and that this is the way forward. 人们必须感觉到自己拥有一个光明的未来,感觉到这是前进的途径。All this was profoundly in US interests, but only when viewed from a most enlightened perspective. 这一切都极大地符合美国的利益,但必须有大智慧才能看出这一点。Americans came to that enlightenment only after a world war, followed by the rise of Soviet communism, which persuaded them to define their interests broadly and accept responsibility for a liberal world order that benefited others as much as, sometimes more than, it benefited them.美国人在经历一场世界大战、接着又经历了苏联共产主义的崛起后才拥有了这样的大智慧,那段历史说美国人开始用开阔的眼光定义本国利益,承担起维护自由世界秩序的责任,这一秩序造福美国,也造福其他国家,后者的获益有时还会超过美国自身获益。Enlightenment doesn’t last for ever, however, and with Mr Trump’s election Americans have chosen, as in 1920, a return to normalcy. 但大智慧不会一直保持,随着特朗普当选,920年一样,美国人选择了回归正常。So what does the normal solipsistic superpower do? It looks for immediate threats to the homeland and finds only one: radical Islamist terrorism. 那么,正常的唯我论超级大国会做什么?它会寻找对美国国土的直接威胁,然后发现威胁只有一个:激进的伊斯兰恐怖主义。Its foreign policy becomes primarily a counterterrorism strategy. 其外交政策基本变成反恐战略。Nations are judged not by whether they are allies or nominal adversaries, democracies or autocracies, only by their willingness to fight Islamists. 对一个国家的判断不再依据是盟友还是名义上的对手,是民主国家还是专制国家,而只依据它们打击伊斯兰恐怖主义的意愿。Mr Putin’s Russia, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s Egypt, Bashar al-Assad’s Syria, Israel: all are equal partners in the fight and all are rewarded with control, spheres of influence and defence against critics within and without. 普京的俄罗斯、阿卜杜法塔塞西(Abdel Fattah al-Sisi)的埃及、巴沙尔.阿萨Bashar al-Assad)的叙利亚,还有以色列——在反恐斗争中都是平等的伙伴,它们得到的回报是对本国的控制、势力范围以及面对国内外批评者的自我防卫权。Most countries, by this calculus, are irrelevant.按照这种标准来看,大多数国家都无关紧要。The rest is a matter of money. 剩下的就是钱的问题。Foreign policy should serve US economic interests, and where it doesn’t should be changed. 外交政策应为美国的经济利益务,不为这个目的务的政策就应修改。Trade deals should be about making money, not strengthening the global order or providing reassurance to allies living in the shadows of great powers. 签订贸易协议的目的应该是赚钱,而非强化全球秩序或是向生活在大国阴影下的盟友提供保。The US is no longer in the reassurance business. 美国将不再负责为别国提供保障。For decades an abnormal US foreign policy has aimed at denying Russia and China spheres of interest. 几十年来,美国的非正常外交政策,一直以阻止俄罗斯和中国获得利益范围为目标。That made sense when upholding an order to avoid a breakdown like that of the first half of the 20th century. 这种做法是合理的——它撑起一种秩序,避免再次出现20世纪上半叶那种崩溃。But a narrower ing of US interests does not require it. 但这种做法对狭隘意义上的美国利益而言是多余的。What interest is it of the US who exercises hegemony in east Asia and in eastern and central Europe? Existing alliances need not be re#172;nounced that would be messy but, if allies have to adjust to new realities, that is to be welcomed rather than resisted.谁是东亚和中东欧地区的霸主,与美国的利益何干?无需声明抛弃现有的联盟(那将造成混乱),但如果美国的盟友不得不适应新的现实,美国应欢迎、而非反对。As for the projection of US military power abroad, there should be no need. 至于在海外使用美国的军事力量,应该没有必要。No foreign army threatens the homeland. 没有任何外国军队可以威胁美国国土。Nuclear powers can be deterred by America’s nuclear arsenal. 美国的核武库能够威慑住几个核大国Note to US hawks: there will be no bombing of Iran under a Trump administration.) (美国鹰派请注意:特朗普政府不会对伊朗进行轰炸。)Almost every intervention of the past 70 years was primarily to defend someone else or to uphold some principle of global order. 过去70年间,美国的几乎每一次干预主要都是为了防卫别的国家,或是维护全球秩序的一些原则。They were wars of choice, not required by a narrow definition of US interests. 这些都是非必选的战争,而非维护狭义意义上的美国利益所必需的。The war against radical Islamist terror can be fought by drone strikes a few special forces and by our partners on the ground.打击伊斯兰极端恐怖势力的战争,可以利用无人机、少量特种部队以及我们在地面的合作伙伴。None of this should sound far-fetched. 这一切听上去应该都不牵强。This narrow, interest-based approach to foreign policy was dominant in the 1920s and 1930s. 这种狭隘、基于利益的外交政策路径在上世纪二、三十年代曾占主导地位。It is the preferred strategy of many American academics today. 它仍是如今许多美国学者偏爱的策略。More importantly, it plays well with an American public that has come to believe the US has been taken to the cleaners. 更重要的是,它迎合了美国公众的心理——他们渐渐相信美国被外国人占尽了便宜。Mr Trump promises they will not be taken for suckers any more.特朗普承诺,不会再让他们被人当成傻子。How long can this new era last? Who knows? 这样一个新时代能持续多久?天晓得。Americans after 1920 managed to avoid global responsibility for two decades. 1920年后,美国人曾成功地逃避了全球责0年。As the world collapsed around them, they told themselves it was not their problem. 当周围的世界崩塌时,他们告诉自己,这不关他们的事。Americans will probably do the same today. 如今,美国人很可能重走旧路。And for a while they will be right. 短期来看,他们没有错。Because of their wealth, power and geography they will be the last to suffer the consequences of their own failures. 得益于自身的财富、力量和地理位置,美国人将最后一个尝到自己种下的苦果。Eventually they will discover, again, that there is no escape. 但最终,他们会再次发现自己无路可逃。The question is how much damage is done in the meantime and whether, unlike in the past, it will be too late to recover.问题在于这期间会造成多大破坏,以及(与以往不同)是否还来得及挽回。来 /201611/479672

I have just been to Buckingham Palace, where Her Majesty the Queen has asked me to form a new government, and I accepted.我刚刚去了白金汉宫,女王陛下请我组建一个新政府,而我答应了。In David Cameron, I follow in the footsteps of a great, modern Prime Minister. Under David’s leadership, the government stabilized the economy, reduced the budget deficit, and helped more people into work than ever before.作为大卫·卡梅伦的继任者,我追随的是一个伟大而开明的首相的脚步。在大卫的领导下,政府稳定了经济,削减了财政赤字,而且以前所未有的幅度增加了就业量。But David’s true legacy is not about the economy but about social justice. From the introduction of same-sex marriage, to taking people on low wages out of income tax altogether; David Cameron has led a one-nation government, and it is in that spirit that I also plan to lead.不过大卫真正的政治遗产并不是经济方面的而是社会正义方面的。无论是引入同性婚姻还是全面免除低收入人群的个人所得税,大卫·卡梅伦领导的政府让整个国家团结起来,而这也是我领导时打算秉持的精神。Because not everybody knows this, but the full title of my party is the Conservative and Unionist Party, and that word ‘unionistis very important to me.并不是所有人都知道,但我的政党全名是保守与统一党,而其中的“统一”二字对我来说非常重要。It means we believe in the Union: the precious, precious bond between England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. But it means something else that is just as important; it means we believe in a union not just between the nations of the ed Kingdom but between all of our citizens, every one of us, whoever we are and wherever we’re from.这两个字代表我们对“统一”的信念——英格兰、苏格兰、威尔士、北爱尔兰之间极其珍贵的统一。不过除此之外它还有更深一层的意思,而这层意思同样重要,那就是不仅在国家之间取得统一,还要在整个联合王国的所有人民之间取得统一,不管我们是谁、从哪来。That means fighting against the burning injustice that, if you’re born poor, you will die on average 9 years earlier than others.这也意味着我们要与社会上的不公做斗争,这些不公就是:如果你生而贫穷,你的平均寿命就比其他人少9年;If you’re black, you’re treated more harshly by the criminal justice system than if you’re white.如果你是黑人,那么你在刑事司法体系中收到的待遇会比白人严厉;If you’re a white, working-class boy, you’re less likely than anybody else in Britain to go to university.如果你个白人男孩,而且出自工薪阶层接听,那你上大学的几率就比别人少;If you’re at a state school, you’re less likely to reach the top professions than if you’re educated privately.如果你上的是公立学校,那你从事高端职业的几率就比上私立学校的人小。If you’re a woman, you will earn less than a man. If you suffer from mental health problems, there’s not enough help to hand.如果你是女人,你受的教育会比男人少;如果你受心理健康问题所苦,你将得不到足够的帮助;If you’re young, you’ll find it harder than ever before to own your own home.如果你是年轻人,你获得自己房产的难度将比以往都大。But the mission to make Britain a country that works for everyone means more than fighting these injustices. If you’re from an ordinary working class family, life is much harder than many people in Westminster realise. You have a job but you don’t always have job security. You have your own home, but you worry about paying a mortgage. You can just about manage but you worry about the cost of living and getting your kids into a good school.不过,我们的任务是将英国建立为一个适合所有人的国家,这远远不止包括与这些不公做斗争。如果你来自一个工薪家庭,你的生活会比威斯敏斯特的许多人意识到的要艰难。你有工作,但你的工作并不稳定。你有自己的房产,但是你会被住房贷款所困扰。你能勉强收平衡,但是你很担忧自己能否将孩子送进一所好学校。If you’re one of those families, if you’re just managing, I want to address you directly.如果你属于一个这样的家庭,你的生活会捉襟见肘,而我的话正是对你们讲的。I know you’re working around the clock, I know you’re doing your best, and I know that sometimes life can be a struggle. The government I lead will be driven not by the interests of the privileged few, but by yours.我知道你们全天无休地工作,我知道你们已经尽了全力,而且我也知道有时候生活非常艰难。我所领导的政府,将不是被特权人士的利益所驱动的,而是被你们的利益所驱动的。We will do everything we can to give you more control over your lives. When we take the big calls, we’ll think not of the powerful, but you. When we pass new laws, we’ll listen not to the mighty but to you. When it comes to taxes, we’ll prioritise not the wealthy, but you. When it comes to opportunity, we won’t entrench the advantages of the fortunate few. We will do everything we can to help anybody, whatever your background, to go as far as your talents will take you.我们将尽一切所能让你们能对自己的生活掌握更大的控制权。当我们考虑重大问题的时候,我们所想的不会是权贵,而是你们。当我们通过新法案的时候,我们所听取的不是豪强的声音,而是你们的。当我们探讨税收问题的时候,我们将把你们而不是富人作为第一考虑对象。当我们处理机会问题的时候,我们不会为那极少数的巨富挖壕沟。我们将尽自己所能来帮助所有人,无论这个人的背景为何,我们都会帮他达到他的才能所能触及的极限。We are living through an important moment in our country’s history. Following the referendum, we face a time of great national change.我们正在经历这个国家历史上一个重要的时刻。在全民公投之后,我们的国家正在面临重大的变革。And I know because we’re Great Britain, that we will rise to the challenge. As we leave the European Union, we will forge a bold new positive role for ourselves in the world, and we will make Britain a country that works not for a privileged few, but for every one of us.而且我知道,因为我们是伟大的不列颠,所以我们定会直面挑战。在离开欧盟之后,我们会为自己在世界上塑造一个崭新而勇敢的积极形象,而且我们会将英国建立为一个所有人的国家(而非少数特权阶层的国家)。That will be the mission of the government I lead, and together we will build a better Britain.这将是我所领导的政府的人物,而我们将同心协力建设一个更好的英国。来 /201607/454543

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