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明星资讯腾讯娱乐2019年01月23日 17:25:19
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Science and technology科学技术Climate change气候变化Bell weather呈钟形曲线变化的天气A statistical analysis shows how things really are heating up一项统计分析显示出天气究竟是如何变热的ARE heatwaves more common than they used to be?热浪来袭真的比以前更加频繁了吗?That is the question addressed by James Hansen and his colleagues in a paper just published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.詹姆斯汉森与他的同事试图在《美国国家科学院院报》上发表的一篇新文章中回答这一问题。Their conclusion is that they are—and the data they draw on do not even include the current scorcher that is drying up much of North America and threatening its harvest.他们得出的结论是,情况的确如此,而且得出这一结论的依据这还不包括最近北美的酷热天气。现在那里的大部分地区已经干旱无比,当地农作物的收成也因此受到了威胁。The teams method of presentation, however, has caused a stir among those who feel that scientific papers should be dispassionate in their delivery of the evidence.然而,詹姆斯汉森与他的同事所采用的展示方案却在一群人中引起了骚动。这些人认为科技论文在表述据时应客观公正,For the paper, interesting though the evidence it delivers is, is far from dispassionate.但有意思的是,该文章在表述据时却远未做到不偏不倚。Dr Hansen, who is head of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, a branch of NASA that is based in New York, is a polemicist of the risks of man-made global warming.总部在纽约的戈达德太空研究所是美国国家航空航天局的一个分部门,该研究所的负责人汉森士能言善辩,他声称人为因素导致的全球变暖将给人类带来危害。Despite his job running a government laboratory, he has managed to get himself arrested on three occasions for protesting against those he thinks are causing such climate change.尽管汉森士主管政府实验室,他却参加过抗议活动,以此来反对那些他认为将造成此类气候变化的行为,而他也因此如愿被警察逮捕过三次。He clearly states in the papers introduction that he was looking for a way of conveying his fears to a sceptical public.汉森士在他的文章序言中明确指出,他正在寻找一种方法,以此让那些对他的观点持怀疑态度的公众体会到他的焦虑。Some of that scepticism is connected with the fact that although changes in the climate will inevitably result in changes in the weather, ascribing any given event—such as a local heatwave—to climate change is impossible.尽管气候变化将不可避免地导致天气变化,但不能将所有特定事件都归因于气候变化,而公众的怀疑态度中有一部分就与这一事实有关。Dr Hansen has therefore tried to go beyond the study of individual causes by demonstrating that what was once unusual is now common.因此,汉森士通过论过去人们眼中的异常天气如今已是十分常见,试图使他的研究不仅仅局限于个别原因。Longer, hotter summers夏天愈加漫长炎热了To do so, he and his colleagues took 60 years worth of data from the Goddard Institutes surface air-temperature analysis.为此,汉森士与其同事从戈达德研究所收集了60年地表气温分析数据。This analysis divides the planets surface into cells 250km across and records the average temperature in each cell.这些分析材料将地球表面分成了一个个宽250公里的区块,并记录了每个区域内的平均温度。The researchers broke their data into six decade-long blocks and compared those blocks statistical properties.研究者将这些数据按十年一组分成了六个时间段,并对这些时间段内的统计特性进行了比较。They looked in particular at the three months which constitute summer in the northern hemisphere.研究者特别关注了北半球夏季三个月的温度。First, they created a reference value for each cell.首先,他们计算出了1951年至1980年每一个区块夏季三个月的平均温度,This was its average temperature over those three months from 1951-80.并将这些数据作为每个区块的参考值。Then they calculated how much the temperature in each cell deviated from the cells reference value in any given summer.接着,研究者又计算在任意指定的夏季内每个区块内的温度分别与各自的参考值存在多少偏差。That done, they plotted a series of curves, one for each decade, that showed how frequently each deviant value occurred.这一步完成后,他们以十年为单位绘制了六条曲线,这些曲线显示出了每一个偏差值发生的频率。Since small deviations are common and large ones are rare, the result of plotting data in this way is a curve shaped somewhat like the cross-section of a bell.由于小的偏差时有发生,而大的偏差则较为少见,因此用这一方法对数据进行描绘,得出的曲线形状就像一个钟的横截面。Such distributions can be modelled by a mathematical function known as the normal distribution—or bell curve.这样的分布状态可以用数学上的一个函数来表示,即正态分布,又称钟形曲线。Whether based on data or a mathematical ideal, such a curve always has two parameters.无论是基于数据还是理想数学模型,钟形曲线都有两个参数。These are its mean and its standard deviation, which measures how wide the bell is.一个是平均值,另一个是它的标准差。The standard deviation is calculated from all of the individual deviations of the data points.标准差可以通过计算所有数值的方差(再开方)得到。To see what was going on, Dr Hansen superimposed the actual curves for each decade from the fifties to the noughties on a normal distribution, which acted as a reference curve.为了弄清气候变化,汉森士以正态分布曲线为参照曲线,将其与六十年中每十年一条的实际曲线相叠加。To make all the curves comparable, he expressed the values of the actual deviations as fractions of a standard deviation, and their frequencies as proportions of their total number.为了使所有这些曲线具有可比性,汉森士将实际偏差值用其与所属样本标准差的比例来衡量,用数据发生偏差数与数据总数的比例表述其频率。As the chart shows, there are two trends.如图所示,钟形曲线表现出了两种趋势。First, the peaks of the data-based curves move right, over time, with respect to the reference curve. In other words, the average temperature is rising.第一,对照参考曲线,随着时间的推移,这种数据型曲线的峰值会向右移,也就是说地球上的平均温度在上升。Second, more recent curves are flatter.第二,时间距离现在越近,曲线越矮胖,A flatter curve means a bigger standard deviation and a wider sp of results.这也就意味着标准差越大,温度数据分布越广。If the mean of each curve were the same, such flattening would imply both more cold periods and more hot ones.如果每一条曲线的平均值相同,那么这种平滑过程也就意味着地球上的寒冷期和炎热期的出现次数都会增加。But because the mean is rising, the effect at the cold end of the curves is diminished, while that at the hot end is enhanced.但由于这些曲线的平均值在增加,因此地球上寒冷期的出现次数会减少,而炎热期的出现次数则会增加。The upshot is more hot periods of local weather.最终导致的结果就是各地出现炎热天气的次数越来越多。Moreover, the bell-curve method makes it possible to say just how much more hot weather there is.此外,有了钟形曲线,人们还能判断炎热天气的出现频率比过去增加了多少。Dr Hansen defined extreme conditions as those occurring more than three standard deviations from the mean of his reference curve.汉森士下了定义:如果在他的参考曲线中某一数值偏离其平均值达到或超过三个标准差,那么这就是极端天气。In that curve, this would be an eighth of a percent at each end, which is more or less the value in the curve for 1951-61.在参考曲线中,左右两端数据中偏离均值超过三个标准差的极端数据应该恰好分别为0.125%,而1951至1961年这一时间段的极端数据分布情况大致上也符合这一特征。Nowadays, though, extreme conditions can be found at any given time in about 8% of the world.但现在世界上约有8%的地区在特定时间内都有极端天气的出现。Local weather patterns do, of course, have local causes. To that extent, they are accidental.当然,各地天气模式的出现的确包含着地方性的原因。在这种程度上说,它们的发生是具有偶然性的。But Dr Hansens analysis suggests that claims there is more hot weather around than there used to be have substance, too.但汉森士的分析表明,各地的炎热天气的确比以往多这种说法也是有依据的。Nothing in his analysis speaks of the cause of that substance. That is deliberate.但他的分析并没有涉及到这种依据的来源,而这也是汉森士有意为之。As he says in the paper, he wants the data to speak for themselves—though he is personally convinced that the cause is human-generated emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide.正如他在文章中所说,他希望数据能说明问题—尽管他本人相信气候变暖是因为人类排放二氧化碳等温室气体造成的。But as the ed States bakes in what may turn out to be a record heatwave, he hopes he might now persuade those for whom global warming is, as it were, on the back burner, to agree that it is real, and to think about the consequences.但现在,一股或许是有史以来最猛烈的热浪正在炙烤着美国。他希望他现在能够说那些跟过去一样搁置考虑全球变暖问题的人,使他们认同全球变暖现象的确存在并考虑其后果。 /201402/276030

The two children slept on the bed, 两个孩子睡在床上,and Michael and I slept on the floor.而迈克尔和我睡在地板上。My heart just bled for him all the time.我的心一直只为他而跳动。I love the fact that everything he sang, he sang from his heart.我深爱着他唱歌的一切事实,他从自己的心中而唱。Joe was a tyrant to them.乔对他们而言是一位暴君。This anesthetic that ultimately killed Michael Jackson was something he had been doing for a number of years.多年来迈克尔?杰克逊一直沉迷的这种麻醉剂最终杀死了他。They were willing to almost throw anything at the jury, hoping something would stick. 他们几乎愿意将所有事情抛给陪审团,希望会坚持下去。He was my favorite singer, my favorite entertainer. 他是我最喜欢的歌手,我最喜欢的艺人。There will never be another Michael Jackson. 永远都不会有另一个迈克尔?杰克逊。I grew up in East Chicago, Indiana. 我在印第安纳州东芝加哥长大。My mother and father divorced when I was at a young age about six years old. 当我大约6岁的时候我的母亲和父亲离婚。My mother was Baptist and my sister and I sang in the Baptist choir. 我的母亲是浸礼会教友,而我和在唱诗班唱歌。It made us have a love for music. 这段经历使我们对音乐产生了热爱。My father used to listen.我的父亲过去也经常听。201306/244801

Mobile phones手机The rise of the cheap smartphone廉价智能手机的崛起As smartphones reach the masses, a host of vendors are eager to serve them智能手机普及化,大小手机厂商开始在低端市场兵戎相向NEXT month Britons will have yet more smartphones to choose from, when devices from Wiko, a two-year-old French company, go on sale. Wiko will be hoping that its phones, which in France start at around 70, prove as popular across the Channel as at home. In 2013 nearly 7% of French first-time smartphone-buyers plumped for a Wiko, says Carolina Milanesi of Kantar Worldpanel, a research firm. In early 2014 the firm claims to have been the second-biggest vendor in France.下个月,英国人民将有更多的智能手机可供选择,因为下个月Wiko的产品就要在英国上市销售了。Wiko是法国的一家成立仅两年的公司,它的产品在法国的最低售价只有70欧元。Wiko希望能够在英国可以复制它在本土的成功。据市场调研公司Kantar Worldpanel的卡罗琳娜·米兰内塞称,在2013年,在法国首次购买的智能手机的人群中,7%选择了Wiko。今年年初,Wiko宣称其已成为法国第二大的手机厂商。Wiko is not alone. In both rich countries and poor ones, cheaper smartphone brands are making inroads. Demand for pricey phones, mainly in developed economies, is slowing, but that for less expensive devices is booming. People buying their first smartphones today, perhaps to replace a basic handset, care less about the brand and more about price than the richer, keener types of a few years ago.Wiko并不是个例。无论是在发达国家还是发展中国家,廉价手机品牌正在大举进军。对高价位手机的需求正在减缓,而对中低价位手机的需求正在急剧增长。现在才开始购买智能手机的人们,可能原来使用的也只是简单的功能机,所以比起前几年富人、极客们关注的品牌,他们更关注的是价格。They are likely to pay less for a nice new smartphone than they did for their shabby old device, because the cost of making smartphones has tumbled. Vendors can buy standardised processors which chip designers such as Americas Qualcomm, the market leader, and competitors such as Taiwans MediaTek or Chinas Sptrum are scrapping furiously to provide in ever-rising quality at ever-lower prices. They choose cameras, screens and so forth to wrap around the innards, and have phones churned out in Chinese factories. Last year, says Francisco Jeronimo of IDC, another research firm, shipments of smartphones priced below 80 more than quintupled. Devices at under 100 made up one-sixth of the total.因为制造智能机的成本猛跌的缘故,人们可以以很低的价格买到优秀的新型智能机,甚至比他们那些简陋的旧手机的价格更低。手机产商可以从芯片制造商那里买到标准化的处理器,现在这一行业的竞争极其激烈,行业老大高通和中国的联发科和展讯正竞相以史无前例的低价格提供高质量的产品。接着,他们再选购摄像头、屏幕,然后和连同内部零件一起打包给中国的工厂批量生产。 互联网数据中心的弗朗西斯科·杰洛尼称,去年,价格低于80美元的智能机的出货量是上一年的五倍还多;100美元以下的手机占总量的六分之一。At a global level, the market has fragmented: in 2013, says IDC, the share of smartphone shipments by vendors outside the top five was 40%, twice as much as in . In national markets, local names unfamiliar elsewhere, like Wiko, are prominent. Micromax and Karbonn rank second and third in India, according to IDC. Symphony is thought to have more than half the market in Bangladesh; and Walton, an electronics firm, has branched successfully into smartphones, notes Holger Hussmann of Telenor, a Norwegian mobile operator with interests in Asia and eastern Europe.从全球的角度来看,智能机市场一家独大的局面正在改变:IDC称,2013年,排名前五之外的智能手机的出货量在总量的40%,是年的两倍。而在国内市场,像Wiko这样在国际上不知名的品牌处于主导地位。 IDC的数据显示,Micromax和Karbonn*在印度的销量分居第二、三名。挪威电信的霍尔格·胡斯曼指出,Symphony已占领孟加拉国超过一半的市场;生产电子元器件的Walton也已成功把业务扩展到了职能手机领域。挪威电信是挪威的一家移动运营商,正有意开发亚洲和东欧的市场。The declining cost of making phones means that buyers are getting more for their money. In 2012, says Mr Jeronimo, 42% of phones priced at less than 80 had a processor faster than 1 gigahertz; by last year 87% did. The proportion of cheap phones with screens more than four inches across went up from less than 8% to 38%. Two years ago the median price of a smartphone was 325. Last year it was 250. This year it may be 200.智能机成本的降低意味着消费者得到了实惠。据IDC的杰洛尼称,2012年市场上处理器速度高于1G且价格低于80美元的职能机占总数的42%,而去年这一数据达到了87%。屏幕大于四英寸的廉价智能机的比例由8%升到了38%。两年前,智能手机的中间价为325美元,今年为250美元,今年可能降至200美元。The cheapest phones will become cheaper still. At Mobile World Congress, an industry jamboree in Barcelona at the end of February, Mozilla, a non-profit company best known for Firefox, its web browser, announced that smartphones running its operating system, Firefox OS, on Sptrum chips would go on sale with a target price of only 25. Mr Hussmann reports that the bill of materials is less than that.这一降价的趋势还会持续下去。在今年二月末举行的MWC大会上,因火狐浏览器而著称于世的非营利机构Mozilla宣布将发售定价仅为25美元的手机。该手机搭载展讯的芯片,运行Mozilla自己的系统Firefox OS。胡斯曼称手机的制造成本并没有超过25美元。It is not only at the bottom that competition is intensifying. In China, points out C.K. Lu of Gartner, another research company, OPPO and Vivo, two local brands, both increased their market shares last year despite focusing on phones priced at 2,000 yuan or more. Fancy phones can also polish a brand. Huawei, another Chinese company, has been trying just that; Wikos top-of-the-range smartphone costs 349.竞争日趋激烈的地方不仅是低端市场。信息研究公司高德纳的C.K.Lu指出,中国的本地品牌OPPO和Vivo去年着重发展价格高于2000元的智能机,其市场份额依然都得到了提升。高端手机可以提高企业的品牌价值。另一家中国公司,华为也做了这方面的尝试。Wiko最顶级的产品的价格达到了349美元。All this is great for smartphone-buyers everywhere. It is less good news for the market leaders, Apple and Samsung—the only vendors making much money. Apple may be insulated by its operating system and apparently impregnable brand, although it has lately been selling cheaper iPhones. Samsung, which dominates the market for phones running on Googles Android operating system, may be more vulnerable.上述一切对于全球的智能机消费者来说都是好消息,但是智能机市场的大佬苹果和三星——为数不多的会因此发愁。此发也许苹果可以依靠其独立的操作系统和固若金汤的品牌来免受影响。但是安卓智能机的主导者三星可能就显得比较脆弱了。The South Korean company suffered a decline in profits late last year. Granted, it makes cheaper devices as well as dearer ones, and it can afford some slimming of its margins. People in poor countries also covet global brands: it has taken share from locals in India. But its problem, Mr Jeronimo says, is that it carries lots of costs, in research and development and in marketing, that cheaper rivals do not. “They are able to provide much better devices, in terms of specs, for a much lower price,” he says. “And this is particularly worrying in developed markets.”去年年底,三星的利润出现了下降。的确,三星可以同时经营各个价位的智能机,而且也可以承受一定程度的利润下降。但是三星的真正的问题,正如杰诺尼所说的一样,在于其研发和营销方面的巨额开,而它那些提供廉价手机的对手们则没有这样的困扰。“它们可以以更低的价格提供—至少在配置方面来说—更好的设备,”他说道,“这个问题发达国家市场尤为使人担忧。“Samsung is doubtless wise to this. Hence its attempt to push beyond the smartphone, into smart watches and wristbands, connected domestic appliances and the business market. Mobile-phone brands have been brittle before: ask Ericsson, HTC, Motorola and Nokia. Samsung has spent bucketloads building its name. It will not want to be usurped by the Wikos of the world.很显然,三星对此做出了明智的应对。它正试图把经营范围从智能手机扩展到智能手表,智能手环和物联网领域。智能手机市场风雨莫测:爱立信,HTC,托罗拉和诺基亚就是前车之鉴。三星费尽心血打造自己的帝国,它可不会让Wiko这样的廉价手机品牌轻易地篡位夺权。 /201405/296631

  We come up with new products all the time,and...and the store, youll see,we sell a lot of different things,and some things were successful.not all of them are successful.我们一直在推出新产品 大家可以看到我们的店里有各种各样的产品 一些卖得很好 但并不是所有都受欢迎We have a few were still working on.有些产品还需要改进Uh,this one,last year...Of course, Sophia Grace and Rosie are very popular.这本书 去年...大家都知道 sophia grace和rosie现在很红And they wrote a book called Tea Time with Sophia Grace and Rosie.And that was popular.她两写了一本书叫做《和sophia,roise喝下午茶》 这本书很火And I thought,well,if this is gonna to be a best seller,which it ws,I should publish a sequel and I couldnt get them.我当时就想 如果这本书很畅销 我就出续集 事实明我想的是对的 但是我联系不到她两so I have Tea Time with Tommy Lee Jones and Mel Gibson, and...So,uh,you know the hottest new craze,所以我印了《和tommy,mel喝下午茶》 还有 还有 你们应该知道最近很火的一股舞蹈热the dance craze everybodys talking about,twerking,right?人人都在说的抖臀舞吧Alright,not everybody knows how to twerk properly.并不是所有人都知道如何正确的抖So...I am always thinking of you.所以 我向来是想民之所想And I came up with something called Ellen Auto Twerk.就发明了一个东西 叫做艾伦自动抖臀器And let me show you how it works.让我来示范一下Im telling you.跟你们说I get three drinks all night with this thing on.昨晚我带着这东西 连续喝了三杯酒呢Alright,well be right back.我们马上回来注:EllenShow中英字幕来源于:艾伦秀字幕组 /201310/261707

  Finance and economics财经商业Monetary policy in America美国的货币政策Taper tiger逐渐变弱的老虎The Federal Reserve surprises everyone by changing nothing美国联邦储备委员保持政策不变让人们感到惊奇SHORTLY after the Federal Reserve hinted in May that it might start to ease its monetary stimulus, rich-country bond yields shot up; emerging-market currencies and stockmarkets cratered.在美联储5月暗示可能会退出货币刺激政策后不久,富裕国家的债券收益率飙升,新兴市场货币和股市出现震荡。Was it all for nothing?难道这没有原因吗?On September 18th, at the end of a closely watched meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee, the Feds policy-setting body, chose not to taper.9月18日,在一个被密切关注的会议结束时,美联储的政策制定机构联邦公开市场委员会没有选择退出。Instead, it said it would keep buying 85 billion a month of Treasury and mortgage bonds with newly created money.相反,表示将用新创造的货币继续每月购买85亿的国债和抵押债券。Although the Fed had never actually promised to act in September, all the signals pointed in that direction.虽然美联储从来没有承诺在9月份采取行动,但是所有的信号都指向这个方向。QE would stop, it had said when the latest bout of bond-buying began last September,when the labour-market outlook had improved substantially.去年9月开始的新一轮购买债券时表示,当劳动力市场的前景已经大幅改善时QE会停下来。Since then, the unemployment rate has dropped to 7.3% from 8.1% and private employment has risen by 2.3m, or 2%.从那时起,失业率从8.1%下降至7.3%,私营部门就业增加了2.3或2%。In June Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, said the Fed would probably start to taper by year-end, and stop QE when unemployment hit 7%, which it expected by mid-2014.在6月,美联储主席本?伯南克表示,美联储可能会开始在今年年底如果失业率达到7%就停止量化宽松政策,预计是在2014年中期。So what has now held it back?那么是什么原因导致倒退?First, the pace of job growth has recently flagged; the drop in unemployment has been flattered by the number of people no longer looking for work.首先,就业增长速度最近开始减弱,失业人数的下降是被不再找工作的人数粉饰过的。The labour-market participation rate sank to 63.2% in August, a 35-year low.劳动力市场参与率8月下跌至63.2%,是35年来的新低。Second, fiscal policy continues to work at cross-purposes to monetary policy.其次,财政政策将继续为多个货币政策目的起作用。Higher taxes and spending cuts have subtracted at least a full percentage point from growth this year.更高的税收和削减开至少降低了今年经济增长整整一个百分点。The prospect that spending caps may be lifted when the new fiscal year begins on October 1st has melted away.在10月1日新的财政年度开始时可能会取消出上限的预期已经没有了。With Republicans in Congress and Barack Obama unable to agree on how to fund the government or raise the Treasurys statutory debt ceiling, the risk of a government shutdown loomed large in the minds of Fed officials.随着共和党在国会和奥巴马政府在如何资助或提高财政部的法定债务上限上谈不拢,在美联储的官员看来政府有很大的关闭风险。But the third and most important restraint on the Fed was the unexpected effect on financial markets of a prospective change in monetary stance.但是,对美联储的第三个也是最重要的约束是变动的货币政策对金融市场的意想不到的影响。The central bank had always emphasised that tapering did not mean tightening.央行此前一直强调退出并不意味着紧缩。Provided asset purchases remained above zero, the Feds balance-sheet would keep growing and monetary policy would still be loosening.倘若资产购买仍高于零,美联储的资产负债表将保持增长和货币政策仍然会松动。Separately, the Fed never wavered from its pledge to keep the federal-funds rate near zero at least until unemployment had fallen to 6.5%.另外,美联储从来没有动摇其承诺保持联邦基金利率接近零直到到失业率下降至6.5%。Nonetheless, investors radically repriced their expectations of Fed policy and fled positions predicated on a policy of QE ever after.尽管如此,投资者从根本上重新定价他们对美联储政策的预期,并从量化宽松的政策以后改变了定位。Bond yields have risen by slightly less than a percentage point since May, mortgage rates by slightly more.从五月以来债券收益率上升了约一个百分点,住房抵押贷款利率上涨更高一些。Mr Bernanke fretted that this rapid tightening of financial conditions in recent months could have the effect of slowing growth, a problem that would be exacerbated if conditions tighten further.伯南克担忧最近几个月这种快速紧缩财政的情况会使经济增长放缓问题是继续紧缩会使情况更糟。The euphoric market response to the FOMCs decision this week would seem to vindicate that judgment.这周市场对联邦公开市场委员会决定的积极反应明了这个判断。But it leaves wide open the question of when the Fed will taper.但它留下宽泛的问题,美联储什么时候开始紧缩。The FOMC trimmed its projections for growth this year and next by about a quarter of a percentage point from its June forecast, to 2.2% in 2013 and 3% in 2014.联邦公开市场委员会对今年和明年经济增长四分之一个百分点的6月份的预测进行了修改,2013年增长2.2%,2014年增长3%。It also changed its unemployment projections, which it now expects to hit 7% early in 2014 and 6.5% later that same year.它也改变了失业率的预测,它现在预计2014年上半年将达到7%,和下半年6.5%。Mr Bernanke was at pains this week to stress that the 7% unemployment target for ending QE and 6.5% threshold for raising rates have never been automatic triggers.伯南克本周煞费苦心的强调,达到7%的失业率时退出QE政策和6.5%时提高利率从来没有自动进行。It all depends on what else is happening in the economy.这一切都取决于经济体中发生的其他事情。It is entirely sensible for the Fed not to be slavishly bound by its guidance,对于美联储不会盲目的遵从指导是完全合理的,but that raises questions over how useful such guidance is.但对这种指导有多大用处有人提出了疑问。Most Fed officials expect to raise rates by 2015, for example,大多数美联储官员预计2015年升息,例如,but Mr Bernanke said rates are unlikely to rise if inflation is below its 2% target, which the Feds new projections suggest could be the case until 2016.但伯南克表示如果通胀率低于2%的目标利率不太可能上升,美联储新的预测显示直到2016年才会实行。The start of tapering could conceivably come at the end of October if data reassure the Fed that the economy has brushed off higher bond yields and if a fiscal train wreck has been avoided.如果经济降低债券收益率的数据和财政列车已避免脱轨能够使美联储相信,紧缩计划能够真的在10月底开始。But there are no clear signposts, which will irk investors.但目前还没有明确的标志,这将会使投资者感到恼怒。Their frustration pales next to that of the Fed itself, which has blown its balance-sheet up to 3.6 trillion and held rates at zero since 2008 but achieved underwhelming results in return.美联储本身相形见绌,资产负债表为3.6万亿美元,并从2008年开始维持利率为零,但并没有取得让人满意的回报。On September 17th the federal Census Bureau reported that real household incomes in America, which had fallen by 8% between 2007 and 2011, did not fall further in 2012.联邦人口普查局9月17日报道,在美国2007年和2011年之间家庭实际收入下降了8%,在2012年并没有进一步下跌。That this counts as good news is telling.这算作一个好消息。Income inequality, meanwhile, is worsening on some measures.同时收入不平等使一些措施恶化。Emmanuel Saez at the University of California, Berkeley, reckons the top 10% grabbed its largest share of total incomes since 1917 last year.加州大学伯克利分校的埃马纽埃尔?赛斯估计自1917年以来,去年前10%的人在总的收入份额中占有最大的部分。This is partly due to QE, which has been very good for the stockmarket and thus the wealthy.部分原因是由于量化宽松政策,有利于股市,使某些人更富裕。QE works in part by boosting household wealth and thus spending and jobs, but the effects have not yet filtered through strongly to the wider economy.QE促进家庭财富增加,消费和就业,但效果尚未渗透到更广泛的经济领域。The taps will be open a while longer yet.水龙头在未来的一段时间继续打开。 /201310/259343。

  

  Science and technology科学技术How to win at poker怎样成为扑克牌高手A handy tip诀窍之一Keeping a straight face is not enough喜怒不形于色?不太够A POKER face. It is the expressionless gaze that gives nothing away.所谓摆一张扑克脸,就是指那种不漏声色面无表情的凝视。To win at poker, the face must be mastered, and master it is what the best players try their best to do.在扑克游戏中要想成为赢家,面部表情务必要控制得滴水不漏。赌圣们也正是这么做的。But a study just published in Psychological Science by Michael Slepian of Stanford University and his colleagues suggests that even people with the best poker faces give the game away.不过,近期斯坦福大学迈克尔·斯莱皮恩与其同事在《心理科学》上发表了一份研究报告,即使一个人面容表情控制得再完美,也会泄露心机。They do so, however, not with their heads but with their hands.而出卖他们心机的并不是那张脸,而是作为赌徒的一双手。Mr Slepian made his discovery when he showed 78 undergraduate volunteers clips of players placing bets at the World Series of Poker.斯皮莱恩做了一项实验:他为78名志愿参与实验的大志愿者学生播放年世界职业扑克大赛选手下注时候的录像片段。The clips were 1.6 seconds long, on average, and featured different parts of the players anatomies.录像每段平均1.6秒,镜头截取了选手不同的身体部位。Some showed everything visible from the table up: chest, arms and head. Some showed just the face.从桌子上方看。第一种,志愿者学生能看到他们露在桌子上方的全部身形:胸部、上肢和头部;第二种,志愿者学生能看到上肢和双手;And some showed only the arms and hands.第三种,志愿者学生只能看到他们的脸。Each volunteer watched only one of the three types of , but was shown several examples.志愿者学生只会看到以上三种其中之一,不过会看到不同选手的录像片段。After each viewing, volunteers were asked to rate the quality of the players hand on a seven-point scale.每观看完一段录像,志愿者学生会给录像中选手手牌评分。Then, when they had finished watching all the clips, they were asked to rate their own experience with poker on a similar scale.之后观看完全部的录像,他们还会给自己的扑克水平打分。Mr Slepian found that students were poor at judging the quality of a players hand when shown just that players face.斯莱皮恩发现,如果只看录像中选手的面部表情,志愿者学生在给选手手牌打分时会显得捉襟见肘。Indeed, he noticed a negative correlation of 0.07. This is not huge.而他也确实从中得出一个0.07的负相关。数值并不大。But it meant there was a statistically significant tendency that the better a volunteer believed the hand to be, the worse it actually was.但是,在数据上的确显示了很明显的趋向:如果仅从面部判断,志愿者学生认为哪个人手牌好,那么实际上这个人手牌很差。When a players whole posture was considered, this misapprehension went away: if a volunteer could see everything about a player from the table up there was no correlation between his judgments of a hands value and its actual value.而选手的身姿全部纳入观察视线中时,这一负相关便会消失不见。如果志愿者学生可以观察到选手在桌面以上所有身形时,那么学生通过赌徒身形对手牌好坏的判断和手牌实际好坏之间不存在相关关系了。而When a volunteer could see only arms and hands, however, Mr Slepian found a positive correlation, of 0.07, between his guesses and reality.总结那些只能看到上肢和双手志愿者学生所观察的数据时,斯皮莱恩发现猜测与实际之间的关系呈现出0.07的正相关。To confirm his discovery, Mr Slepian re-ran the experiment with a different set of clips.为减小实验结果的误差,斯皮莱恩用不同的一套录像片段重新做了一次实验。The results were the same.结果并无二致。Students, even those who were poker novices, could judge the quality of a professional poker players cards from the behaviour of his hands.即使是那些不会玩牌的志愿者学生也能够从一位职业扑克玩家的手部动作判断出他手牌的好坏。The next question was, how?那么,他们是怎样判断的呢?Mr Slepian knew from previous studies by other people that anxiety has a tendency to disrupt smooth body movements, and he suspected this might be the explanation.斯皮莱恩从之前其他人的研究中得知,人的焦虑情绪会影响肢体动作施展的连贯性,他认为这很可能就能作为自己实验结果的解释。To find out, he showed 40 new volunteers the clips he had used in the previous experiment.为了实这一猜测,他给40名新的志愿者学生播放了之前用过的那套录像资料。Rather than asking them to judge the quality of a players cards, however, he asked them to rate either that players confidence or how smoothly the player pushed his chips into the middle of the table.之后不再问他们选手手牌好坏,而是让其判断选手是否自信,或者在选手将筹码向桌子中间推的过程中,动作够不够流畅。He found that when students rated players as being confident or having hands that moved smoothly, the cards they held were likely to be good.斯皮莱恩发现,只要是志愿者学生认为选手是自信的或者选手在向前推筹码时动作一气呵成,那么他们的手牌就会很不错。There was a positive correlation of 0.15 when the students considered confidence and of 0.29 when they looked for smooth movement, so they were actually more capable of determining hand quality from these variables than when asked to estimate it directly. 所以在判断选手手牌好坏时,相对于直接估量,志愿者学生可以从这些变量中更好地做出判断。志愿者学生认为自信的选手,猜测与实际就是0.15的正相关;志愿者学生认为动作连贯舒展的选手,呈现出的是0.29的正相关。The moral of the story for players, then, is dont look your opponent squarely in the eye if you want to know how good his cards are.本文的寓意则在于,如果想知道对方手牌好坏,选手在比赛时不要只是直勾勾地盯着对方眼睛看。The secret of his hand is in his hands.秘诀在于他们的手上动作。 /201312/267318

  

  

  

  

  As the popular slogan states, ;ing is fundamental.; 正如那句谚语说的,“阅读是基础。”But for many kids with dyslexia, learning to is a struggle. 但对于那些有阅读障碍的孩子来说,学习阅读是种挑战。Simply put, children with ing disorders have trouble recognizing words and letters on the page. 简单的说,有阅读障碍的孩子是很难识别书本上的单词和字母的。And although ing difficulty has been studied for over 100 years, scientists have never determined a specific cause. 尽管科学家们针对这个问题已经研究了100多年,但还是没能给出一个确切的原因。 Over the past twenty years, however, researchers have made significant strides. 在过去的20年中,科研人员们已经取得了重大进步。Many agree that the disorder can be best explained by understanding the mechanics of ing.他们中的很多都同意如果阅读的机制被理解的话,阅读障碍就能被解读。When a child learns to , she begins to associate the shapes of letters with sounds, and then string the sounds together to form words. 当一个孩子学着去阅读的时候,她首先会把单词的形状跟读音联系起来,然后再将这些读音拼到一起组合成新单词。When a learning er sees the letters C-A-T on the page, she begins by recognizing that the letter ;C; makes a ;kuh; sound, A makes an ;ahh; sound, and so on. 当一个初学者看到书本上的单词C-A-T时,她首先会注意到字母;C;发;kuh;的音,字母”A”发 ;ahh;的音。These basic sounds are called phonemes, and the ability to manipulate them is called phonological awareness. 这些基本的发音叫做音素,而运用音素的能力叫做语音认知。Many researches now believe that for children with ing disorders, the problem has to do with impaired phonological awareness. 现在,很多研究人员认为,对于那些有阅读障碍的孩子来说,这些问题与削弱语音意识有关。Such children may know what a cat is and be able to describe it in detail, but when it comes to sounding out the written word ;CAT; the parts of their brains responsible for processing phonemes just dont work as well as they should. 这样的孩子会知道猫长什么样儿,甚至能够很细致地去描述,但是当看到;CAT;一词读出来时,他们大脑中负责处理音素的部分反应地就没那么快了。Many ing disorders seem to have nothing to do with intelligence. 许多阅读障碍似乎与智力因素是无关的。Albert Einstein was dyslexic, and he turned out to be pretty bright. Albert Einstein就有阅读障碍,但事实明他很聪明。The good news is that with proper training, nearly all children can learn to with proficiency. 令人欣慰的是,适当的训练几乎可以让所有的孩子都能做到熟练地阅读。And that, as we know, is fundamental. 那就是,我们所说的,基础。201307/249564

  Oil and the world economy原油和世界经济The new Greece?又一个希腊?How to assess the risks of a 2012 oil shock如何评价2012石油危机的风险WITH the euro crisis in abeyance, high oil prices have become the latest source of worry for the world economy. “Oil is the new Greece” is a typical headline on a recent report by HS analysts. The fear is understandable. Oil markets are edgy; tensions with Iran are high. The price of Brent crude shot up by more than a barrel on March 1st, to 8, after an Iranian press report that explosions had destroyed a vital Saudi Arabian oil pipeline. It fell back after the Saudis denied the claim, but at 5, crude is still 16% costlier than at the start of the year.欧元危机悬而未决,高油价又令世界经济为之头痛。在汇丰分析师最近的报道中,头条便是“原油成为又一个希腊” ,这种担忧是可以理解的。国际原油市场变幻莫测,伊朗局势依然紧张。据一家伊朗媒体报道,一次爆炸损坏了沙特阿拉伯一条至关重要的石油管道。布伦特原油价格应声上扬,三月一号每桶价格暴涨到128美元,涨幅超过5美元。随后沙特当局否认了这一报道,价格出现一定回落,但依然高达125美元,原油价格较年初上涨16%。Assessing the dangers posed by dearer oil means answering four questions: What is driving up the oil price? How high could it go? What is the likely economic impact of rises so far? And what damage could plausible future increases do?要评估随之而来的风险,就得回答以下四个问题:是什么在推高油价?油价会高到什么地步?到目前为止,价格上涨可能带来的经济影响是什么?未来似乎合理的价格增长会造成怎样的损害?The origins of higher prices matter. Supply shocks, for instance, do more damage to global growth than higher prices that are the consequence of stronger demand. One frequent explanation of the current rise is that central-bank largesse has sent oil prices higher. In recent months the world’s big central banks have all either injected liquidity, expanded quantitative easing (printing money to buy bonds) or promised to keep rates low for longer. This flood of cheap money, so the argument goes, has sent investors into hard assets, especially oil. But since markets are forward-looking, the announcement rather than the enactment of QE should move oil prices; indeed, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, disappointed markets last month by not signalling another round of QE (see Buttonwood). Moreover, if rising prices are being driven by speculators you should see a rise in oil inventories—exactly the opposite of what has happened.其中较高价格的起源关系重大。举例来说,供给冲击对全球增长的危害要远大于需求增加导致的价格上涨。一种常见的解释是,中央增加货币供给推动了价格上涨。最近的几个月里,世界各大央行都向市场注入了流动性,实行量化宽松政策(印更多的钞票购买债券)或者承诺现行的低利率将维持一段时间。这样一大批廉价货币让投资者涌入了硬资产领域,特别是石油,因此争论还在继续。但由于市场具有前瞻性,所以左右油价的应该是官方声明而不是量化宽松政策的实施。实际上,美联储主席本﹒伯南克并没有签署另一轮量化宽松政策(见《梧桐》),这一举动无疑挫败了市场信心。此外,如果价格被投机者操控,那么原油存货应该增加,而事实却恰好相反。Central banks may have affected oil indirectly, by raising global growth prospects, which in turn buoy expectations for oil demand. Circumstantial evidence supports this thesis. The recent rise in oil prices has coincided with greater optimism about the world economy: a euro-zone catastrophe and a hard landing in China both appear less likely and America’s recovery seems on stronger ground.中央可以通过上调全球经济增长预期间接地影响原油价格,转而提升原油需求的增长预期。有间接据撑这一论点。最近的油价上涨与对世界经济的过分乐观是一致的:欧元区的灾难和中国的硬着陆似乎都不太可能上演,美国经济复苏的后劲十足。But slightly rosier growth prospects are only part of the story. A more important driver of dearer oil has been disruptions in supply. All told, the oil market has probably lost more than 1m barrels a day (b/d) of supply in recent months. A variety of non-Iranian troubles, from a pipeline dispute with South Sudan to mechanical problems in the North Sea, have knocked some 700,000 b/d off supply. Another 500,000 b/d or so of Iranian oil is temporarily off the market thanks both to the effects of European sanctions and a payment dispute with China.但稍微乐观了一点的增长预期只是故事的一个部分,高油价一个更重要的推动因素是供给中断。总而言之,在最近几个月里,国际原油市场大概每天要减少一百万桶的原油供给。从南苏丹石油管道纠纷到北海机械故障,各种各样的非伊朗问题每天就会减少70万桶的原油供给量,另外50万桶左右临时的伊朗石油供给减少要归因于欧盟制裁和与中国的付纠纷。The cushion of spare supply is thin. Oil stocks in rich countries are at a five-year low. The extent of OPEC’s spare capacity is uncertain. Saudi Arabia is pumping some 10m b/d, a near-record high. And there is the threat of far bigger supply disruptions if Iran were ever to carry out its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 17m barrels of oil pass every day, some 20% of global supply. Even a temporary closure would imply a disruption to dwarf any previous oil shock. The 1973 Arab oil embargo, for instance, involved less than 5m b/d.备用原油的缓冲效果已经不太显著,其中富国的原油储备处于五年来的历史低位。欧佩克的剩余产能大小无法确定,而沙特阿拉伯正在创造历史新高——以每天1000万桶的速度生产原油。如果伊朗真的关闭霍尔木兹海峡——这里每天有1700万桶原油通过,大约占世界原油供给量的20%——那么将会出现更大的供给中断威胁。即使只是暂时关闭,所带来的负面影响也将超过以前任何一次原油冲击。例如,在1973年阿拉伯石油禁运中,每天的原油供给减少多达500万桶。Separating out these various factors is not easy, but Jeffrey Currie of Goldman Sachs reckons that the fundamentals of supply and demand have pushed oil prices to around 8 a barrel. He thinks the remaining increase is down to fears about Iran. If so, should relations with Iran improve, the oil price might go down by a few dollars, but stay close to 0.分离出这些不同的因素有一定难度,但高盛公司的杰弗里#8226;柯里估计,供给和需求的基本面已经推动油价达到每桶118美元左右,余下的增长源于对伊朗问题的担忧。按照他的说法,如果改善与伊朗的关系,石油价格可能下行几美元,但仍会接近120美元。Globally, the damage from price increases to date is likely to be modest. A rule of thumb is that a sustained 10% rise in the price of oil shaves around 0.2% off global growth in the first year, largely because dearer oil shifts income from oil consumers to producers, who tend to spend less. For now any impact is almost certainly outweighed by improvements elsewhere, particularly in the easing of the euro crisis. Despite dearer oil, the prospects for global growth are still better than they were at the beginning of the year.在全球范围内,价格上涨造成的伤害到目前为止可能还是适度的。有一条经验法则是油价每持续增长10%,全球经济增长率就会下跌0.2%,很大程度上是因为高油价将收入从石油消费者转向生产者,所以生产者往往损失更小。现在几乎可以肯定地说,其他方面的改善完全可以抵消任何冲击,尤其是解决欧元危机。尽管油价高涨,全球经济增长的前景依然好于年初。But the impact on growth and inflation in individual countries will differ. In America, a net importer which taxes fuel lightly, the standard rule is that a increase in oil prices (which corresponds to a 25-cent rise in the price of petrol) knocks around 0.2% off output in the first year and 0.5% in the second year. That would slow, but hardly fell, an economy that is widely expected to grow by more than 2% this year.但是对经济增长和通胀的影响在不同的国家是有所区别的。美国作为一个石油净进口国和燃油税负较轻的国家,一个标准的规则是:石油价格增长10美元(相当于汽油价格增长25美分),会降低第一年0.2%左右的产出,第二年则会下降约0.5%。普遍预期其今年的经济增长将超过2%,看来增长会减速,但不太可能下降。There are in any case several reasons why America may be more resilient to dearer oil than in recent years. The jump in petrol prices has been far smaller than in 2011 or 2008. Rising employment gives consumers more income with which to pay for fuel. And America’s economy is becoming ever less energy-intensive, and less dependent on imports. Oil consumption has fallen in the past two years, even as GDP has risen.在任何情况下,美国都可以比近年来更有效地抵御昂贵的石油。究其原因,可以有以下几点:汽油价格的涨幅远小于2011年或2008年;逐步上升的就业给予消费者更多收入,从而用它来付燃料花销;以及美国经济正在远离能源密集型,更少地依赖进口。在过去的两年里, GDP上涨的同时石油消费却在下降。Americans are driving less, and they are buying more fuel-efficient cars. Net oil imports are well below their 2005 peak, which means more of the money Americans spend on costlier oil stays within its borders. The development of copious amounts of natural gas means gas prices have plunged. That, coupled with an unusually mild winter, has kept bills for home heating unusually low. In January the share of consumers’ spending on energy products was the second-lowest in 50 years. These factors do not imply that America is impervious to spiking oil, but they do suggest the impact of price rises to date will be modest.美国人比以前少开车了,他们在购买油耗更低的汽车。净进口的石油远低于2005年的高峰时期,也就意味着美国人把更多的钱花在昂贵的石油上面并停留在美国境内。大规模发展天然气意味着天然气价格开始大幅下降。再加上异常温和的冬季,家庭供暖开销也异常之低。今年一月份,消费者的能源产品出份额在近50年中处于第二低位。虽然这些因素并不意味着美国能够独善其身,但它们确实表明了价格上涨的影响是有限的。Europe is more exposed. European countries, which tax oil more heavily than America, have typically seen a smaller impact on growth from changes in the oil price. But this time they may be relatively more affected, because most economies are aly stagnant or shrinking. Worse, Europe’s weakest peripheral economies are also some of the biggest net importers. Greece, for instance, is highly dependent on imported energy, of which 88% is oil. Even the price rises to date will worsen the euro-zone recession; a big jump could spawn a deep downturn and fracture the confidence of markets.欧洲更明显。欧洲国家的石油税负比美国更重,通常可以看出油价的增长变化对其造成较小的影响。但这次他们可能相对更容易受影响,因为大部分经济体已经停滞或萎缩。更糟的是,欧洲最弱的边缘经济体中也有一些位于最大的石油净进口国之列。举例来说,希腊是个高度依赖能源进口的国家,而其中88%是石油。目前的价格上涨将进一步加剧欧元区衰退,一个大的跳跃就可能造成深刻的经济倒退并摧毁市场信心.Britain is relatively insulated. Although it is a net oil importer, it has significant resources in the North Sea. Any losses to the consumer from dearer fuel are partially offset by gains in the oil and gas sector itself. But even in Britain the net effect of price increases to date could be more damaging than usual, particularly since they reduce the odds of sharply falling inflation. Lower inflation, and a rise in real incomes, are one reason British policymakers hoped to see the economy improve this year.英国相对安全。尽管英国是一个石油净进口国,但它在北海有明显的资源优势,消费者在昂贵的燃料上产生的任何损失都能被石油和天然气行业增加的收益部分抵消。即便如此,油价上涨对英国的影响也比以往更为不利, 特别是因为它们减少了通货膨胀急剧下降的可能性。低通货膨胀和增加的实际收入,是英国决策者所希望看到的今年经济改善的一个方面。Barrels, no laughs百不一贷In emerging economies the picture is even more disparate. Oil exporters, from Venezuela to the Middle East, are gaining; oil importers will see worsening trade balances. In 2008 and 2011, the main effect of dearer fuel in emerging economies was on inflation. That is less of a worry now, largely because food prices, which make up a much bigger part of most emerging economies’ consumption basket, are stable.新兴经济体之间的差异更大。从委内瑞拉到中东, 石油出口国都是贸易顺差,而石油进口国将会面临不断恶化的贸易平衡。2008年和2011年,燃料价格高昂是新兴经济体通货膨胀的主要原因。但如今不同了,占多数新型经济体消费组合很大比重的食品价格较为稳定。But some countries will face problems. In the short term, some of the hardest-hit emerging economies will be in eastern Europe. They will suffer not only from more expensive oil but also from the weakening of European export markets.但是有些国家将面临一些问题。在短期内,一些受冲击最大的新兴经济体将会出现在东欧。他们将忍受的不仅仅是愈加昂贵的石油价格,还有不断疲软的欧洲出口市场。India is also a concern. Fuel is a big component of its wholesale-price index, for example, so inflation will rise as higher oil prices are passed through to domestic fuel costs. To the extent they are not, the budget will be hit. India regulates—and heavily subsidises—the price of diesel and kerosene. According to Deutsche Bank, diesel prices have risen by only 31% since January , whereas the price of crude oil in rupees is up by 180%. The difference is a result of subsidies, frustrating India’s efforts to reduce its budget deficit.印度也被波及。燃料是其批发价格指数一个很大的组成部分,因此,高油价将通过国内燃料成本导致通货膨胀率上升。印度调控并大量补贴柴油和煤油价格,这一点反映在财政预算上。据德意志统计,从年1月开始柴油价格上涨了31%,而在卢比市场原油价格已增长了180%。所不同的是补贴政策的效果——挫败印度减少预算赤字的努力。So oil is not the new Greece. More expensive oil is, for now, doing little harm to global growth. But it is not helping Europe’s more fragile economies. And if the Strait of Hormuz is threatened, the resulting surge in oil prices will spell the end of the global recovery.所以石油不是又一个神话。高企的石油价格对全球经济增长的危害会少一些,但这并不能缓解欧洲愈加脆弱的经济。如果霍尔木兹海峡的正常运营受到威胁,油价上涨将会宣告全球复苏的结束。 /201307/247190

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