上饶市第五人民医院治疗痘痘多少钱
时间:2018年12月13日 13:45:31

Is it science or is it art? Californian company Yonder biology says its both. For several hundred dollars depending on your chosen design, former biotech scientists Stein Sarah and Andy Bess would take your DNA, and turn it into a portrait.这是科技还是艺术?加利福尼亚的一家公司Yonder biology说,两者都是。根据你选择的不同设计,花费几百美元。前生物技术学家Stein Sarah和Andy Bess将分析你的DNA图谱,并将它制成画像。A lot of people, they dont even know what DNA looks like or you know, its just, its just an idea. This we can actually give them something tangible that they can hold them in their hands,and say Oh, this is me. This is what my DNA is. 许多人并不知道DNA是什么样子的,因此这只是个创意。我们能给大家一个有形的物体,让大家可以拿着它说,这就是我,这就是我DNA的样子。DNA makes for intriguing art given its complicated scientific funtion. The genes within DNA are passed down from each parent and determine such characteristics as hair colour and skin tone. And because each customer is unique, so is the portrait. The artistic process begins with a cheek swab. The cells collected on the swab contain the DNA which Yonder biology extracts and processes to the point where it can be imaged on the computer. Dean Sauer says scientists have been using similar methods for decades.DNA的艺术画像体现着深远的科学原理。人类基因中的DNA来自父母双方,决定着人的身体特征,如发色和肤色。因为每一个人的DNA都是独一无二的,因此DNA也可作为人类画像。DNA艺术的加工从接触过口腔的棉签开始。棉签上沾上人类细胞,细胞中含有DNA,Yonder bieology公司对DNA进行提取加工,在电脑上画出DNA图谱。Dean Sauer表示,科学家们使用这种技术已有几十年历史。Its not a cutting-edge technology, I mean, this technology has been around since the 1980s. So, its nothing really new, but its definitely new to the average everday consumer. Consumers like Charlie Bishop whose best friend passed away 2 years ago. Charlie ended up marrying his late friends widow, and adopting their daugher Lauren whos 7 months old at the time. For his wifes birthday, Bishop ordered a Yonder biology artwork mixing a photograph of Lauren with her DNA, a pictorial link to her late father.这不是尖端技术,这种技术自从20世纪80年代就存在了。它并不新鲜,但将它务于普通人却是头一次。客人们如Charlie Bishop,他最好的朋友两年前去世了,他后来和好友的遗孀结婚并抚养朋友当时7个月大的女儿Lauren。在他妻子的生日时,他来到Bishop ordered定制了Lauren的DNA画像送给妻子。同时也是纪念孩子已故的父亲。Its not just a piece of art, its, its a connection with the past, its the connection to Lauren dad, to my best friend.这不仅仅是一幅画,这还是我们与过去的连接。它纪念了Lauren已故的父亲,我最好的朋友。And for Andy Bess and Dean Sourer its a product of the growing business that they say has become a part of their DNA.而对于Andy Bess和Dean Sourer来说,公司蒸蒸日上的DNA画像业务已经融入到他们身体的DNA中了。Robert Muir Reuters.Robert Muir报道,路透社消息。注:本篇文章英文来自普特论坛,译文属原创,,。201208/194965

Many aspects, like its geological past, are a mystery. But some things we do know, this lonely planet has strange science of keeping time. Once you arrive, you have to reset your watch for a time zone like no other. It has such unusual orbit and rotation period. The days and nights are, are very strange. A mercurial year is just 88 earth days long, thanks to its quick sprint around the sun. But it rotates so slowly a single day takes much longer.许多方面,就像它的过去地质,是一个谜。但是有些事情我们知道,这个孤独星球有着奇怪的科学时间。一旦你到达时,你不像其他地方因为一个时区而重置你的表。它有着非比寻常的轨道和旋转的时期。日日夜夜非常奇怪。水星的一年只相当于地球的88天,这都是由于其快速围绕着太阳转所致。但它转动得如此之慢,所以一天需要更长时间。The day on mercury is more than half a year, eh, earth terms. Although known to us since ancient times for thousands of years, we had little idea what the planet really looked like. Then in 1974, NASAs Mariner 10 sent us back the first ever glimpses of its surface. Pictures can be transmit to tracking stations and onto Jeffery Portion Laboratory in California. Due to mercurys slower rotation and its ellipse orbit on the sun, when it flew by three times, it saw the same half of the planet. So weve really only seen something like 45% of the planet relatively low resolution.在水星的一天相当于半年多时间,呃,这是按照地球的术语。虽然我们知道自古以来,几千年来,我们根本不知道这个星球的实际样子。接着在1974年,美国宇航局的水手10号给我们带回有史以来第一次它的表面掠影。照片被传送到追踪站之后到达加州杰弗瑞;波顿实验室。由于水星慢轨道旋转和它在太阳上的椭圆轨道,它以3倍速度旋转。它看到了同样的一半的星球。所以我们真的只看到类似的45%的相对低分辨率的这个星球。Hidden in these fuzzy black and white postcards for over 30 years are clues that point to one of mercurys biggest puzzles. Its been shrinking. Mercury doesnt have plate tectonics like here does. So we know that mercurys crust is under a lot of compressure. Mere way can really do that is if the planet shrank. You can take as this incredible, shrinking planet. As Mariner 10 flies past, the mystery deepens. This spacecraft detects a vast iron core hidden inside.隐藏在这些模糊黑白明信片后30多年来的是一个指向水星最大的困惑的线索。它正在缩小。水星没有板块构造。所以我们知道水星的地壳承受很大的压力。如果这个星球缩小,我们无能为力。你可以当这难以置信,萎缩的星球。作为水手10号已经探秘过的星球,这加深了神秘。太空船侦测到其中隐藏着一个巨大的铁核心。注:听力文本来源于普特201202/172862

Sitting alone on the city bus, Einstein believes he has glimpsed the secret of the Universe. 独自一人坐在公交车上,爱因斯坦相信他已经窥探到了宇宙的奥秘。For Einstein , space was this place where stuff walls and didnt do anything, they have stuff in it. 对于爱因斯坦来说,空间是个四周有墙的地方,而且有东西在里面。This space combined with time to become spacetime is a more dynamic understanding of this arena that everything takes place in becoming more alive in a way . 这个空间与时间结合成为宇宙时间,成为一个更为活跃的时空,这一领域一切都以一种更有活力的方式发生着。Things very outlandish very very strange things.事情非常古怪,已经到了稀奇古怪的程度。Rarely had anything so radical been submitted to Europes most prestigous scientific journals .欧洲最权威的科学期刊上几乎没有刊登过如此深入的研究。It was a complete outside to the physical phase to date as he was being in Switzerland being a patent clerk and yet he was abmicious enough to think that he could chanllenge the whole of established physics at the time .他在瑞士专利局的职员身份对于物理领域来说简直是外行,但他仍然有信心足挑战整个物理学。注:听力文本来源于普特201203/175154

Science and technology.科技。Mining asteroids.小行星采矿。Going platinum.小行星采矿——淘铂去。Mining metals from asteroids seems a bonkers idea. But could it work?小行星采矿这想法听似疯狂,但行得通吗?CAN reality trump art? That was the question hovering over the launch on April 24th, at the Museum of Flight in Seattle, of a plan by a firm called Planetary Resources to mine metals from asteroids and bring them back to Earth.4月24日,行星资源公司(Planetary Resources)在西雅图的航天物馆(Museum of Flight)启动了一项计划——在小行星上采矿并将矿物带回地球。对这项计划,人们一直都在疑惑:现实能否战胜艺术?It sounds like the plot of a film by James Cameron-and, appropriately, Mr Cameron is indeed one of the companys backers. The team behind the firm, however, claim they are not joking. The companys founders are Peter Diamandis, instigator of the X Prize, awarded in 2004 to Paul Allen and Burt Rutan for the first private space flight, and Eric Anderson, another of whose companies, Space Adventures, has aly shot seven tourists into orbit. Larry Page and Eric Schmidt, respectively the chief executive and the chairman of Google, are also involved. So, too, is Charles Symonyi, the engineer who oversaw the creation of Microsofts Office software (and who has been into space twice courtesy of Mr Andersons firm). With a cast-list like that, it is at least polite to take them seriously.这听着就像詹姆斯?卡梅隆的电影中的情节——恰好,詹姆斯?卡梅隆实际上就是这家公司的赞助人之一。但是公司背后的团队宣称小行星采矿这事可不是在开玩笑。行星资源公司的创始人是X奖(2004年Paul Alle和Burt Rutan因首次实现私人太空飞行而获颁此奖)发起者Peter Diamandis和拥有太空探险公司(Space Adventures)(已将七位游客送上太空)的Eric Anderson。GOOGLE的总经理Larry Page和董事长 Eric Schmidt也参与其中,曾负责监督开发微软办公软件的工程师Charles Symonyi同样是其中一分子(通过Eric Anderson的公司,他也上过太空两次)。阵容如此强大,出于礼貌至少也该重视这个想法。As pies in the sky go, some asteroids do look pretty tasty. A lot are unconsolidated piles of rubble left over from the beginning of the solar system. Many, though, are pieces of small planets that bashed into each other over the past few billion years. These, in particular, will be high on Planetary Resources shopping list because the planet-forming processes of mineral-melting and subsequent stratification into core, mantle and crust will have sorted their contents in ways that can concentrate valuable materials into exploitable ores. On Earth, for example, platinum and its allied elements, though rare at the surface, are reckoned more common in the planets metal-rich core. The same was probably true of the planets shattered to make asteroids. Indeed, the discovery of a layer of iridium-rich rock (iridium being one of platinums relatives) was the first sign geologists found of the asteroid impact that is believed to have killed the dinosaurs.这想法虽不切实际,但有些小行星看来确实很诱人。它们许多是由太阳系诞生时遗留下来的碎石堆成的,结构松散;但仍有很多是过去几十亿年里小行星相互碰撞产生的碎片。特别是后者将被行星资源公司优先列在其采矿清单上。因为在行星诞生时,矿物熔化之后会层化为地核、地幔、地壳;这个过程将使其中物质分门别类,令有价值的矿物浓缩成可供开采的矿石。例如在地球上,铂和铂系元素在地表上虽然罕见,但人们认为在富含金属的地核里却是较为常见的。对于那些相互碰撞后其碎片形成小行星的行星而言,情况可能同样如此。实际上,地质学家们提出小行星曾撞击地球的第一个据就是发现了富含铱的岩层(铱是铂的同族元素之一)。人们认为恐龙就是因小行星撞击地球而灭绝的。Most asteroids dwell between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter. But enough of them, known as near-Earth asteroids, or NEAs, come within interplanetary spitting distance of humanity for it to be worth investigating them as sources of minerals—if, of course, that can be done economically.大部分的小行星都位于火星和木星的轨道之间。但近地小行星(即NEAS)也不少,它们距离地球很近,值得勘探。当然,费用要划得来才行。First catch your hare.勿谋之过早。The first thing is to locate a likely prospect. At the moment, about 9,000 NEAs are known, most of them courtesy of ground-based programmes looking for bodies that might one day hit Earth. That catalogue is a good start, but Planetary Resources plans to go further. In 2014 it intends to launch, at a cost of a few million dollars, a set of small space telescopes whose purpose will be to seek out asteroids which are easy to get to and whose orbits return them to the vicinity of Earth often enough for the accumulated spoils of a mining operation to be downloaded at frequent intervals.首先,要找到一个可能有矿藏的小行星。目前已探明的近地小行星约有9000颗,其中大部分是地面计划在寻找可能撞击地球的天体时探测到的。从这个范围开始寻找是很好,但行星资源公司却有更远大的计划。该公司打算在2014年耗资数百万美元发射一组小型太空望远镜,用于寻找容易到达的、能经常回到地球附近的小行星,以便常将所采矿物送回地球。That bit should not be too difficult. But the next phase will be tougher. In just over a decade, when a set of suitable targets has been identified, the firm plans to send a second wave of spacecraft out to take a closer look at what has been found. This is a significantly bigger challenge than getting a few telescopes into orbit. It is still, though, conceivable using existing technology. It is after this that the handwaving really starts.这一步应该不会太难,但下一步就难度更大了。当该公司发现了一组适合采矿的小行星时,便计划要在短短十年多一点的时间内发送第二批宇宙飞船仔细研究一下这些小行星。这个挑战可比向太空中发射几个望远镜要艰巨得多。不过,利用现有的技术仍是可以实现的。在这之后,纸上谈兵才真正开始。Broadly, there are two ways to get the goodies back to Earth. The first is to attempt to mine a large NEA in its existing orbit, dropping off a payload every time it passes by. That is the reason for the search for asteroids with appropriate orbits. This approach will, however, require intelligent robots which can work by themselves for years, digging and processing the desirable material. The other way of doing things is for the company to retrieve smaller asteroids, put them into orbit around Earth or the moon, and then dissect them at its leisure. But that limits the value of the haul and risks a catastrophic impact if something goes wrong while the asteroid is being manoeuvred.要将所采矿物运回地球大致有两种方法。其一是在不改变其轨道的情况下于一颗较大的小行星上采矿,在这颗小行星每次接近地球时卸下所采矿物。这就是为何要寻找轨道合适的小行星的原因。不过,此法需要能独立工作数年的智能机器人来开采并加工有价值的矿物。其二是行星资源公司改变较小的小行星的运行轨道,将其安置在环绕地球或月球的轨道上,再在有空时仔细研究之。但那将减少每次采矿的量,且要承担移动小行星时出现问题而带来灾难性后果的风险。Either way, the expense involved promises to be out of this world. A recent feasibility study for the Keck Institute for Space Studies reckoned that the retrieval of a single 500-tonne asteroid to the moon would cost more than .5 billion. Earlier research suggested that, to have any chance of success, an asteroid-mining venture would need to be capitalised to the tune of 0 billion. Moreover, a host of new technologies will be required, including more-powerful solar panels, electric-ion engines, extraterrestrial mining equipment and robotic refineries.不论哪种方法,所需费用都一定是天价。最近,克柯太空研究所(Keck Institute for Space Studies)进行的一项可行性分析认为,将一颗重量为500公吨的小行星移到月球附近所耗资金将超过二十五亿美元。较早前的研究指出,必须投资一千亿美元才有可能实现小行星采矿。而且,还需要大量新技术,包括功率更大的太阳能电池板、电子离子引擎、太空采矿设备和自动冶炼厂。All of which can, no doubt, be done if enough money and ingenuity are applied to the project. But the real doubt over this sort of enterprise is not the supply, but the demand. Platinum, iridium and the rest are expensive precisely because they are rare. Make them common, by digging them out of the heart of a shattered planet, and they will become cheap. The most important members of the team, then, may not be the entrepreneurs and venture capitalists who put up the drive and the money, nor the engineers who build the hardware that makes it all possible, but the economists who try to work out the effect on the price of platinum when a mountain of the stuff arrives from outer space.当然,若为这个项目投入足够的资金和人才,以上种种都能实现。但对于这种工程浩大的项目,人们真正质疑的并非是否有人能提供这种务,而是有没有这种需求。正因为稀有,铂、铱等矿物才价格不菲。若这些矿物能在一个由碎片构成的行星的地核中被开采到,它们就成了普通金属,价格也会变得便宜。所以,这个团队里最重要的成员可能不是推动这项事业并参与投资的企业家和风险投资人,也不是设计实现这一目的的硬件工程师;而是当大量的铂从天外而来时,那些试图算出其对铂价冲击的经济学家。201208/195548

Science and technology.科技。Geoengineering.地理工程学。Implicit promises.包含着承诺。A geoengineering experiment has come unstuck. But there will be more.地理工程试验取得突破。可期待更多。FOR the past few years, a European collaboration called IMPLICC (Implications and Risks of Novel Options to Limit Climate Change) has been looking at what it might mean to engineer the climate, by reducing the amount of sunshine that reaches the Earths surface. A lot of IMPLICCs work, like much else in climate science, has taken the form of computer modelling. In its case the models try to mimic the effects of things like putting veils of reflective particles into the stratosphere, or brightening the clouds over the oceans.近几年在欧洲合作平台上,简称IMPLICC(控制气候变化--新颖选项的含义及风险)的组织,持续对减少阳光直射地球为目的研究做探讨。探讨是为了解该项气候工程的含义。IMPLICC和其他气候科学研究相似,较多采用电脑模拟程序。在这里,创造出的气候模型设法模拟出两种情况,其一是将层层的反光微粒放入平流层中,其二是增加海洋上空云朵对光线的反射度。This week the IMPLICC team and other interested parties met in Mainz, Germany, to discuss the results-for the various models have turned out to agree far better than many of their creators expected. In particular, they suggest that particles in the stratosphere can indeed stop rising levels of greenhouse gases raising the overall global temperature, though in doing so they slightly cool the tropics while the poles warm a bit. Other things being equal, the models also agree that geoengineering tends to suppress the hydrologic cycle, with less evaporation and less rainfall.IMPLICC团队与其他相关组织,这个星期在德国--迈因茨举行讨论。多个模型结果的相符程度还比模型创造人所预计的更相似, 加强了预测结果的可信度。尽管温室气体在持续的增加中,研究显示反光微粒能防止温室气体,造成全球气温的升高。 与此同时,预计到热带地区气温会微降, 南北极的气温则会微升。 所有其他因素不变,各模型一致显示;水文循环;会遭压制,代表将有较少的蒸发及降雨量。Some researchers, however, want to go beyond modelling. They wish to experiment in the real world. The highest-profile of these schemes has been part of a programme called SPICE (Stratospheric Particle Injection for Climate Engineering), which is paid for mainly by Britains Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC). Much of SPICE takes place in computers and laboratories, but one part was to be an actual experiment-a tethered balloon with a kilometre-long hosepipe attached to it. The idea was to pump a small amount of water up to the balloon and thence out into the air, so as to assess the possibility of spraying out other substances at far greater heights.然而,有些科研人员则选择进行真正的实验。最受瞩目的是简称SPICE(平流层中注入反光微粒气候工程)的组织。SPICE主要是由EPSRC(英国工程与物理科学研究理事会)助资,大部分研究仍在使用电脑程序及实验室研究,一部分研究则在使用真实实验。 实验采用一公里长的输送管拴住气球。气球升空后,实验性地通过输送管在空气中喷洒水,为估计在更高气层中喷洒其他物质的可能性。This move to a practical project has proved controversial. Some people worry that tinkering deliberately with the atmosphere may cause more harm than good. Others fear that if geoengineering is shown to work it will, by offering a palliative for the problem of global warming, let politicians put off difficult decisions that might lead to a permanent solution. As Clive Hamilton, a philosopher critical of much of the thinking behind geoengineering research, pointed out to the meeting, though the environmental effects of such experiments may be nugatory, their effects on the way people think could be more profound, and much less easily contained.转向这类真实实验模式是有它的争议点。有人担心,以粗浅的方法任意操纵大气层,弊会大于利。此外,地理工程即使奏效,功效也不会持久。则学家--克利韦?汉密尔顿在会议中对地理工程研究背后的理念提出批评,指政治家可能借暂缓措施,推迟制定有难度的持久性对策。认为地理工程或对环境影响微不足道,但对人们的思考模式却有更深层及无法控制的影响。Cloud cover云盖In light of such thinking, in September 2011, a ;stakeholder committee; consisting of a geographer, a sociologist, an atmospheric scientist, an engineer and an adviser to Friends of the Earth (an environmental lobby group) who had been appointed by the EPSRC told the SPICE merchants they needed to be more convincing about how the experiment would be explained, how it would fit into ideas about the future, and how its safety and wisdom could be vouched for publicly.这类思考方向的浮现,促使;利益相关者委员会;于9月2011年成立。EPSRC任命,由地理学家,社会学家,大气层科学家,工程师及;地球的朋友;(环境行动组--该组织顾问)各一位所组成。委员会要求SPICE商家,对实验目的,未来环境展望的合适性,如何对公众提供研究操作上的安全及知识担保,向这几个方面做出更有说力的解释及持。A further complication was a patent application covering some relevant technology by Peter Davidson, a consultant engineer whom the EPSRC had asked to play a role in choosing what geoengineering work it should pay for. Though this application had been filed before SPICE was proposed, and Mr Davidson both declared his interest and recused himself from discussions on SPICE team when advising EPSRC, Matt Watson of Bristol university, SPICEs principle investigator, was sufficiently concerned about both the application and wider issues of the sort considered by the stakeholder committee that, this week, he cancelled the balloon experiment.实验的执行更因工程顾问--彼得?戴维森对相关技术做出专利权申请,而有所复杂化。戴维森同时受EPSRC委托,负责挑选可获资助的地理工程项目。戴维森先生在SPICE组成之前以提交专利申请,也呈报有关利益冲突并对EPSRC提供专业指导时,刻意回避针对SPICE团队的讨论。尽管如此,身为SPICE主要调查员的布里斯托尔大学人员-- 马特·沃森,对专利权申请及受;趣益相关者委员会;关注的广泛问题持有所顾忌,以取消这星期的;气球实验;。The meeting in Mainz also learned, though, of another experiment that has met with better fortune. Last September a team led by researchers from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, in La Jolla, California, looked at whether clouds could be whitened artificially (and thus caused to reflect more sunlight back into space) using particles emitted from a boat. Such brightening has been observed in the exhaust plumes of cargo ships for some time, but Lynn Russell, who ran the experiment, was still surprised by how much brightening the team saw. Though Dr Russells experiment had been designed mainly to look at how clouds form naturally, it paves the way for future work on geoengineering. How that will affect attitudes to global warming remains to be seen.迈因茨会议仍从另个实验有所获得。实验团队来至加利福尼亚—拉奥拉,斯克里普斯海洋学公共机构,探讨的是,利用船只排出的微粒体将云朵;人工白化;的可行性。云朵若经白化,就能把更多阳光反射回太空。尽管货船排放出的废气羽状物以被观察出能使云朵变白,实验人员--琳?拉塞尔仍对实验成果,云朵的白化程度感到惊讶。拉塞尔的实验是为观察云朵的自然形成而设计,在此也为更多地理工程研究铺路。该实验会如何影响对全球变暖的态度,却仍无法预计。201208/195413

NOW almost five years old, the economic crisis rumbles on. In order to assess how much economic progress it has undone, The Economist has constructed a measure of lost time for hard-hit countries. It shows that Greecersquo;s economic clock has been turned back furthest: it has been rewound by over 12 years. Elsewhere in the euro area, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain have lost seven years or more. Britain, the first country forced to rescue a credit-crunched bank, has lost eight years. America, where the trouble started, has lost ten (see left-hand chart).经济危机与我们的如影相伴已经有5年时间了。为了了解它对经济发展造成的损失有多大,《经济学人》建立了一个衡量标准来显示那些经济危机严重的国家浪费了多少时间。我们可以看到希腊的经济退步最多:倒退了12年。欧洲的其他国家,爱尔兰、意大利、比利时和西班牙倒退了至少7年。英国,这第一个被迫向丧失偿还贷款信誉的伸援手的国家,经济也倒退了8年。美国,这一危机的始作俑者,倒退了10年(可见左边图表)。Our clock uses seven indicators of economic health, which fall into three broad categories. Household wealth and its main components, financial-asset prices and property prices, are in the first group. Measures of annual output and private consumption are in the second category. Real wages and unemployment make up the third. A simple average of how much time has been lost in each of these categories produces our overall measure.我们的这个度量表用到了经济健康发展的7个指标,可以分成三大类。家庭财富和其重要组成部分,金融资产和房产价格作为家庭财富的主要组成部分,算在第一组里。年产出和私人消费的分配时第二类。工资和失业人数是第三类。对三类损失的时间之和进行简单平均,就得出了我们总体的结论。Stockmarkets give some of the starkest results. American equities lost a quarter of their value in the month after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. Shares are an important component of householdsrsquo; pension-fund wealth, and in that month alone five years of gains were eradicated. The main indices have improved markedly since then: the Samp;P 500 is back to around 90% of its peak value. But they were at these levels back in the late 1990s, too, so some investors will have made no capital gains in 13 years. Greek stocks were higher in 1992 than today: 20 years have been wiped away.股市更是将一些结果裸地摆在我们面前。美国股票市值在雷曼兄弟2008年9月垮台之后的一个月下降了25%。股票是当时家庭养老基金的重要组成部分,而在那一个月里,近五年的积蓄毁于一旦。从那以后,各大主要指数得到明显提高:标准普尔指数回到了其峰值的90%,但也只是达到了20世纪90年代末的水平,所以一些投资商将在未来13年内将没有资本收益。希腊股票1992年的市值要远比现在高:20年的时间就这么白白被抹去了。Recent performance is actually quite good from a historical perspective: five years on from both Wall Streetrsquo;s 1929 crash and Japanrsquo;s 1989 asset bust, equities were at just 50% of their peak values in real terms. But history also offers a warning: it took 25 years for American stocks to regain their 1929 highs and Japanese stocks have never made it back to their peak.从历史角度看最近的市场表现其实已经算不错了:在1929年华尔街危机和1989年日本的资产泡沫破裂后的5年,股票实值都只能达到峰值的一半。但是历史也发出警告:美国股市花了25年才重返1929年的高点,而日本股市却永远回不去了。House prices have gone backwards, too. The average American homeowner is living in 2001, judging by inflation-adjusted property values. Britain has suffered less dramatic drops in house prices, but has still lost seven years. The costs of this lost time are huge: British householdsrsquo; property wealth, in todayrsquo;s prices, is around pound;500 billion (5 billion) short of its peak; American households have lost a whopping .2 trillion.房价也走下坡路了。扣除通胀因素,一般的美国房主还像是生活在2001年。英国的房价下滑倒没有那么严重,不过也倒退了7年。倒退这几年的代价是惨重的:英国有房居民的房产价值,以现如今的价格来看,比峰值时少了5000亿英镑(7850亿美元);美国则丧失了庞大的92000亿美元。How quickly economies make up lost time will depend on where they have ceded ground. Some indicators may bounce back quickly: share prices are forward-looking measures of expected returns that are constantly being reassessed. Just as they can crash down they can jump back up, boosting wealth.经济恢复的快慢取决于它们在哪里反弹。一些指标可能会迅速反弹:股票价值就是对期望回报率不断地重新评估的前瞻性标尺。它们可以摔倒,也就能爬起来,继续向前。Other indicators are more sluggish. Measures of output tend to crawl, not jump. One such measure, nominal GDP, is a vital metric of governmentsrsquo; debt sustainability. Since debts are set at past values, growth and inflation tend to make the burden of borrowing more manageable; a shrinking economy makes the problem worse. There are 14 countries that have gone back in time, according to the nominal GDP indicator. This group includes eight members of the European Union, all of which have to repay their debts from an eroded tax base. Portugal and Spain have been sucked back to 2008 on this measure; Ireland was richer in 2006.另外一些指数就有些迟滞了。产出的走势是爬行的,而不是跳跃的。名义国民生产总值,这个指数就是对国家债务可持续性的重要度量工具。由于债务是以过去的值作为基准,借贷增加和通货膨胀会使借款的负担更容易得到控制;不过经济的下滑会使问题更严重。根据名义国民生产总值来看,有14个国家经济出现倒退,其中包括欧盟的8个成员国,这些国家需要靠不健全的计税基数来偿还贷款。葡萄牙和西班牙退回到2008年;爱尔兰则稍好于2006年。A different measure of GDP is needed to see how well consumers are doing. Inflation needs to be stripped out since it is higher output, not higher prices, that make people better off. Population growth also needs to be taken into account, since living standards are best measured on a per-person basis. Measured by real GDP per person a third of the 184 countries the IMF collects data for are poorer than they were in 2007. These 61 countries have each lost at least five years.我们需要用GDP的另一种衡量方式来评判消费者的生活水平。因为是高产出,而不是高物价才让百姓生活更好,所以我们应该剔除通货膨胀因素。人口增长也需要放入考虑范围之内,因为生活水平在个人基础上才能得到很好的体现。实际人均国民生产总值显示,世界货币基金组织在184个国家采集的数据中有三分之一都比在2007年的情况要差。这61个国家每个都退后了至少5年。The type and location of the economies still underwater on this measure are striking (see right chart). The EU has done very badly: 22 of its 27 members have lost time. Of the G7 group of large economies, only Germany has not gone backwards. The Caribbean and eastern Europe also have their fair share of submerged countries. Asia has performed much more strongly.以这一标准衡量所显现出经济体们的不同表现和地域差别是惊人的(可见右边图表)。欧盟的表现极其差劲:27个成员国中的22个经济都有倒退现象。经济大国组成的七国集团中,只有德国经济没有退步。加勒比海地区和东欧也在退步国家之列。只有亚洲的表现很优异。Our labour-market indicators provide more estimates of lost time. The OECD, a think-tank, publishes wage data for 25 rich countries. In ten of them real wages were lower in 2010 than previously, with four years lost on average by those that went backwards. Workers in Greece and Hungary had lost six years, with pay below its 2004 level.我们的劳动力市场指标提供了更多表现经济倒退的数据。智囊团;;经济合作与发展组织公布了25个发达国家的工资数据。其中的十个国家2010年的实际工资要比之前低,相当于平均倒退了4年。希腊和匈牙利的工人的工资倒退了6年,低于2004年的水平。Unlike income and GDP, there is no reason why unemployment statistics should improve year on year. But many advanced countries had managed to reduce joblessness to new lows in the years before 2007. The crisis blew all those gains away. In America the unemployment rate stands at 8.3% of the labour force, its 1983 level. In Britain it is at its worst for 17 years. In the euro area job prospects diverge hugely: unemployment is falling in Germany but Greece, Ireland and Portugal have joblessness rates not seen since the early 1990s (see bottom chart).收入和国民生产总值是逐年攀升,而失业率却没有得到改善的理由。虽然许多发达国家设法将失业率降低到2007年之前的新低,但经济危机让这些努力前功尽弃。在美国,失业率占到了劳动力的8.3%,相当于1983年的水平。在英国,则是17年最差劲水平。在欧元区,就业前景差距很大:德国的失业率下降,但在希腊、爱尔兰和葡萄牙,失业率都创下了20世纪90年代以来的新高(可见底部图表)。These measures are the most worrying of all. Growth will reset the economic clock, providing new jobs and the resources to pay down debts. The IMF predicts that in three years Italy will be the only G7 country with real GDP lower than in 2007. Within this group, America, which is aly growing again, is in a better position than Britain, which is not. But periods of unemployment scar workers even after economies have crawled back to health. For some, the time lost to the crisis will never be recovered.这些度量标准是最让人担忧的。发展将会通过提供工作岗位和资源还清债务,来重置经济周期。世界货币基金组织预计三年后,意大利将是七国集团中唯一一个实际国民生产总值低于2007年水平的国家。在这个集团中,经济已经重返发展轨道的美国会比英国更占优势。但是失业的时间即使在经济恢复后仍会给工人们造成损失。对于一些国家来说,经济危机给经济倒退带来的创伤将永远不会抚平。201203/173667


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