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Finance and Economics;Global house prices;Downdraft;财经;全球房价; 全球房价日渐衰落;European house prices are finding it harder to defy gravity;欧洲房价难以扭转乾坤;From the late 1990s home prices across the rich world soared relentlessly upward, borne aloft on a gale of cheap capital. In 2006 some overvalued markets began crashing to earth. Until recently, however, the correction seemed remarkably contained. American and Irish home prices plunged, giving up all the gains of the previous decade, but others have fallen far less steeply. Some markets faltered and then stabilised. The latest update of The Economists global house-price indicators hints that this period of post-crisis calm may be coming to an end.上世纪90年代起,发达国家的房价借廉价资本之风冲上云霄,高居不下。2006年部分被高估的楼市开始回落。然而直至近日,回落势头似乎才得以控制。 美国、爱尔兰的住房房价急遽下滑,前十年积攒的楼市盈余全部打了水漂。较前两国而言,其他国家的房价下滑则较为平缓。一些楼市虽起伏不定,随后却能趋于稳定。本刊最新更新的全球房价指数暗示,暴风雨前的宁静期或将告终。Europes gravity-defying act has been the most striking. Most of its largest housing markets—Germany is the big exception—boomed in the early 2000s and stumbled during the crisis. But fortunes have diverged since then. Irish prices plunged and continue to sink. House prices in most other markets are still well above “fair value”, which we define as the long-run average of two measures: the price-to-income ratio, a gauge of affordability, and the price-to-rents ratio, an analogue of the price-to-earnings ratio used to judge the equity value of listed firms. Spanish markets are still overvalued by a quarter on these measures, although prices are falling. In Belgium and France, prices are well above fair value and they continue to rise.欧洲房价跌幅格外惹人注目。除德国之外,多数欧洲大型住房市场无一例外的在21世纪初繁荣,而后受金融危机拖累。各国命运自此分岔。爱尔兰房价急转直下,至今未能刹车。而其余楼市的住房价格却依旧维持在“公平价格”之上。所谓公平价格,即房价对收比和租售比两项指标的长期平均值。其中,房价对收比用于评估评估付能力,而租售比则模拟市盈率以鉴定上市公司股权价值。西班牙房价虽呈下滑趋势,但楼市仍被高估25%。 比利时和法国的房价则远超公平价格,并继续高飞猛涨。Such buoyancy can largely be attributed to a combination of low interest rates and a preponderance of variable-rate mortgages. But from the third quarter of 2011 to the fourth, as recession bit and bond markets wobbled, European house prices came under downward pressure. The pace of depreciation quickened around the periphery of the euro zone. Appreciation slowed in Germany and France. The euro areas downturn probably continued into the first quarter of 2012 and may persist beyond that. Unemployment is rising across the continent and banks are under pressure to shore up balance-sheets (see article). Prices will struggle to rise in such conditions, in over- and undervalued markets alike.楼市呈现如此繁荣景象,很大程度上应归功于低利率和浮息按揭的优势。而在2011年第三季度至第四季度间,经济衰退来袭,债券市场暴跌,欧洲房价不负重压开始跌落。欧元区边缘国家跌幅加速,德法两国涨幅放缓。预计2012年第一季度欧元区将持续萎靡,低迷之势抑或加剧。欧洲大陆失业之风蔓延,肩负平衡资产负债表之压。此般情形之下,无论在楼市被高估与否,房价势必难以反弹。Housing markets have also cooled in far healthier economies. Chinas government spent much of 2011 reining in its scorching housing sector by limiting multiple home purchases, raising interest rates and hiking banks reserve requirements. Soaring prices now look a thing of the past: values were essentially flat in the year to the fourth quarter of 2011. A fragile Europe and a cooling China have taken the wind out of other Asian housing markets. Values continue to rise in Singapore but more slowly than in the third quarter of last year. Australian home values fell faster in the fourth quarter than in the third.一些健康经济体的楼市热浪也已消退。2011年中国政府耗费大量精力通过限制个人购房数,提高利率以及提高准备金标准来压制过热的房价。 如今看来,飙升的房价已呈回落之势:2011年第三季度房价走势基本平缓。 萎靡脆弱的欧洲和日益冷静的中国也削弱了其他亚洲楼市的锐气。新加坡房价持续走高,但涨幅较去年第三季度相比明显放缓。澳大利亚住房价格第四季度的跌幅则大于第三季度。Americas housing-market correction has gone further than most. On our gauge, prices nationally are 19% below fair value. Economic conditions are improving, and the unemployment rate is down sharply from a year ago. Home sales and construction are depressed relative to normal levels but rose substantially in early 2012 from the prior year. Prices keep falling, however. According to the latest release of the Samp;P/Case-Shiller index of home prices, home values in large markets were down by 3.8% in the year to January. That was better than a 4.1% drop in December but still horribly disappointing.美国楼市回落之势最大。本刊指数表显示,全美房价低于公平价格19%。而美国的经济状况日渐转好,失业率也较去年急剧锐减。去年至今年年初住房销量和建筑量虽大幅上升,但与正常水平相对略显萧条。然而房价持续下滑。最新公布的标普住房价格指数显示,今年一月大型楼市房价下降了3.8%。虽比12月下跌4.1%要好,但依旧令人极其失望。Better times are in sight. Buying a house looks like an increasingly good bet compared with renting, according to The Economists calculations. Indeed, rising rents are helping to cut into a backlog of unsold homes; in February, 23% of home sales were to investors, many of whom will switch the properties into rentals.好日子指日可待。本刊预计,买房看上去越来越比租房划算。飙升的租金确实有助于抛售积压房产。今年二月住房销售量中,23%由投资者购买,而其中大部分房产将转用于出租。Canadians have reason to quake at the wrenching correction going on south of the border. House prices in Canada are above their 2007 mark, and appreciation accelerated from the third quarter of 2011 to the fourth. The price-to-rent ratio now indicates that Canadian properties are 76% overvalued, though things look less bubbly on the income measure and Canadian lenders are a far more disciplined bunch than pre-crisis American lenders were. The government hopes to prod markets into a slowdown by toughening financing rules.加拿大人绝对有理由为美国骤然回落的房价担忧。加拿大房价远超2007年水平,2011年第三季度到第四季度间增幅加速。 尽管单用收入衡量,加拿大楼市看似则不那么泡沫,而且加拿大的贷方远比金融危机前的美国贷方有教养,但目前租售比显示加拿大房产被高估了76%。加拿大政府则希望通过强化融资规来刺激楼市放缓。In large, global cities there is another dimension to house-price movements. Where foreign demand is an important part of the local property market, exchange rates matter for affordability, as our analysis of prices adjusted for trade-weighted exchange rates indicates (see chart). Consider London. Homes there may feel as expensive as ever to Britons, but a large sterling depreciation means houses look some 15% cheaper to foreigners now than they did five years ago. Dollar weakness has left New York homes some 30% cheaper for international buyers than in 2006. By contrast, a dearer loonie has driven up Toronto home values by nearly 90% since 2006, compared with a rise of 32% in local-currency terms. The yuans slow but steady rise has magnified appreciation in Shanghai. Small wonder Chinese buyers are so visible in London and Manhattan.国际大都市的房价波动还有一个特点。本刊对房价随贸易加权汇率的变动的分析显示(见上图),若当地房地产市场以国外需求为主,购买力必受外汇汇率的影响。举伦敦为例,在英国人眼中的房价也许与往常持平,但对外国买家而言,英镑的大幅贬值使得英国住房比5年前便宜约15%。美元疲软拖累纽约房价,使其比2006年便宜了近30%,国际买家坐收渔利。 反之,2006年起不断升值的路尼则将多伦多的房价抬升近90%,按本币计算相对上涨32%。受缓慢稳健升值的人民币影响,上海房价涨幅扩大。难怪来伦敦和曼哈顿买房的中国人越来越多。 /201305/239010。

Science and technology科学技术Entomology昆虫学Bad beehaviour有失蜂度The strange case of the bandit bumblebees熊蜂:不可思议的土匪TO MOST people, bumblebees are charming, slightly absurd creatures that blunder through garden and meadow with neither the steely determination of the honeybee nor the malevolent intention of the wasp.在人们的印象里,熊蜂可爱、友好而又有些令人可笑。它们跌跌撞撞地穿过花园和草场,既不像蜜蜂,有钢铁般的决心;也不似黄蜂,具备恶意的企图。If you are a plant, though, things look rather different—for from the point of view of some flowering plants many bumblebees are nothing more than thieves.不过,如果你是一株植物,你就会从新定义它们。从一些有花植物角度来看,熊蜂是彻头彻尾的贼:They rob them of their nectar and give nothing in return.它们掠夺花蜜,却未予回报。Nectar robbery, in which a bumblebee carves a hole in the side of a flower as a bank robber might cut his way into a vault, was discovered by Charles Darwin.某些花的形状发生了演化,以促进具有长舌的昆虫为其授粉。昆虫的长舌能探到狭小管道状花的深处。This technique lets bees get at the nectar of flowers whose shapes have evolved to encourage their pollination by insects with long tongues, which can reach down narrow tubes.达尔文最先发现熊蜂抢劫花蜜的行为。熊蜂在花的一侧切开一个口,行径无异于强盗杀进金库。它们凭借这种本领获取狭小管道状花的花蜜。Some bumblebees do have such tongues. But some do not.有的熊蜂的确有长舌,不过有些确实没有。Short-tongued bees are, however, unwilling to deny themselves the bounty of nectar inside these flowers. Hence the hole-cutting.短舌熊蜂难以抵御丰厚花蜜的诱惑,于是就有了切口打孔。By breaking in in this way, though, a bumblebee nullifies the 100m-year-old pact between flowering plants and insects: that the plant feeds the insect in exchange for the insect pollinating the plant.然而这种暴力获取的方式却撕毁了有花植物和昆虫间一亿万年的古老契约:植物为昆虫提供食物,昆虫履行为其授粉的义务。The question about nectar robbery that has intrigued biologists from Darwin onwards is whether the behaviour is innate or learnt.熊蜂抢劫花蜜的行为到底是先天性还是后天性,自达尔文起,生物学家们一直对此感到困惑。Darwin, though he originated the idea that many behaviour patterns are products of evolution by natural selection, suspected that it is learnt.达尔文推测这是后天性的。Insects, in other words, can copy what other insects get up to.换言之,他推测昆虫有能力模仿其他昆虫的行为习惯。Only now, though, has somebody proved that this is true.直到现在,这种推测才被明是正确的。The observations were made by David Goulson, and his colleagues.做出观测的是David Goulson以及他的同事。To test his ideas he had to go from Britain to Switzerland, for only there could he find a flower of the correct shape to conduct the study.为了检验他的想法,他必须远离英国前往瑞士。因为只有那里才能找到形状合适的花以进行研究。His crucial observation was that when the flowers of an alpine plant called the yellow rattle are robbed, the entry holes—because of the structure of the flower—tend to be unambiguously on either the right-hand side or the left-hand side.决定性的观测在于yellow rattle被熊蜂造访后留下的孔。由于这种花的特殊结构,人们可以明确地区分出孔在花的左侧还是右侧。Moreover, preliminary observation suggested that the holes in flowers in a single meadow are often all made on the same side.加之初步观测结果表明,同一块草场中这种花上的孔常常在同一侧。This led him to speculate that bumblebees in a particular area do indeed learn the art of nectar robbery from one another, and then copy the technique with such fidelity that they always attack a flower from the same side.他认为,对于生活在所研究的特定草场中的熊蜂,它们确确实实从其他个体那里学习了抢劫花蜜的技术。并且它们模仿的相当精准,以至于总是从同一侧侵袭花朵。Crime and nourishment罪与馐His team monitored 13 alpine meadows during the summers of and 2011.他的研究组于年和2011年的夏天监测阿尔卑斯山13块草场。They painstakingly recorded the sites of robbery holes in yellow-rattle flowers, and studied the behaviour of 168 bumblebees.他们煞费苦心地记录yellow rattle上抢劫孔的位置,并且研究了168只熊蜂的行为。They tried to follow each bee until it had visited 20 flowers, though they lost sight of some insects before they had reached this score.研究组尽力追踪每只熊蜂,直到它光顾的花达到20朵为止。If they could, they then captured the insect so as not to follow it again on another occasion.尽管有些熊蜂没有达到这个数量就不见了,但若够数,他们旋即捉捕那只熊蜂,以防止二次追踪。Dr Goulson found, as he reports in Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology, that two short-tongued bumblebee species which live in the area, Bombus lucorum and Bombus wurflenii, demonstrated handedness when they robbed flowers.士发现,生活在该地区的两种短舌熊蜂在打劫花时表现出利手行为。Moreover, if one species was behaving in a left-handed manner in a particular meadow, the other was likely to do the same.更有甚者,如果针对特定的草场,一种熊蜂是左撇子,那么另一种熊蜂通常也是左撇子。This suggests that one species can learn from another—a trick previously thought to be confined to vertebrates.这暗示一物种可以向另一物种学习—过去人们认为只有脊椎动物才有这种本领。Handedness in any given meadow, Dr Goulson found, increased as the season progressed.他还发现,在任何指定的草场中,利手性随着季节的更替而强化,But each summer appeared to start as a blank slate.但每到夏天则似乎从新形成。The handedness that developed in a meadow in did not predict its handedness in 2011.某块草场中09年利手性并没有预测出11年的利手性。Goulson士将以上发现发表在《生态学与社会生物学》上。The most reasonable explanation, Dr Goulson argues, is that each year a few bumblebees which have learnt the trick of nectar robbery in the previous season come out of hibernation and start robbing flowers again.Goulson士认为最合理的解释是:每一年,一些熊蜂在过去季节里掌握了抢劫花蜜本领,它们冬眠后再次出来抢劫。By chance, they make more holes on one side of the flowers than the other, and as the habit is picked up by other, newly hatched bees, a preference for left or right sps by a process of positive feedback.它们偶然间在花的一侧制造出更多的抢劫孔。由于其他新孵化出的熊蜂效仿了这种习惯,左利手或右利手作为一种正反馈进行传播。The bees have, in other words, created a simple culture.或者说,熊蜂创造出一种简单的文化。It is a criminal culture, admittedly.诚然,这是一种罪恶的文化,But no one ever said that nature was pretty.但没有人曾说,自然界原本是优雅的。 /201312/266849。

Yael:My grandmother.雅艾尔:我的祖母。Shes Miss Sunshine; always looking on the bright side of things, even now that shes ninety-eight years old.她总是很阳光,总是看事情的光明面,即使现在她已经98岁高龄。Its rather extraordinary.这的确难能可贵。Seems to me there couldnt be much to be happy about at that age, except that youre still alive I suppose.我想要是除了你还活着,否则对我来说活到那个岁数也不可能会快乐。Don:Thats exactly what Im talking about.唐:那正是我接下来想谈论的话题。Research shows that whether a person is an optimist or a pessimist is related to their quality of life, including their physical health.研究表明,无论一个人是乐观主义者还是悲观主义者都和他们的生活质量息息相关,也括他们的身体健康。The subjects involved first took personality tests in the 1960s and then thirty years later they completed a follow-up self-assessment of their health status.受试者在20世纪60年代参与第一次性格测试,而30年后他们又完成了一次接下来的自我健康状况的评估。Researchers found that not only did the optimists from the 1960s report better physical and mental functioning thirty years later, but that optimists also lived longer on average than pessimists.研究人员发现30年后不仅当年报告的乐观主义者具有更好的生理和心理功能,而且比悲观主义者的平均寿命要长。Its hardly clear that there is a causal relationship between optimism and health;乐观的生活态度与健康之间的因果关系并不明显;it could be that they are related to the same underlying gene complex or set of mechanisms.有可能是相同的潜在复杂基因或机制所致。Still, it sure is tempting to surmise that its partly your grandmothers positive attitude that has kept her alive this long.不过,当然很容易推测部分是你祖母的积极态度使她这么长寿。It may actually be possible that a lot of what my parents have been telling me for years is true.实际上可能多年来父母一直千咛万嘱我的是正确的。If you think positively, good things may happen to you.如果你态度积极乐观,好运终会降临到你身上。If you think negatively, then you may doom yourself.如果你自身消极,那么你可能会毁灭自己。Yael:They also say that a positive or negative attitude can be contagious.雅艾尔:他们也认为积极或消极的态度可以传染。If thats true then I guess I ought to spend more time with my grandmother.如果这是真的,那么我想我应该花更多的时间陪陪祖母。Im not getting any younger.我已经不再年轻。Don:Can I come too?唐:我可以一起去吗? 201310/260340。

Business商业报道Ad space for equity为股票做广告Air for shares股票时间Could an unusual venture-capital model be taking off?一项不同寻常的风险投资模式能够起飞吗?IN AMERICA, venture capital is plentiful.美国风险资金十分丰富,Not so elsewhere.但是并非所有地方都是这样。In Europe, a handful of companies are helping struggling start-ups with an unusual model:在欧洲,一些公司正以非同寻常的模式帮助那些挣扎的新成立的公司:investing advertising space in them instead of money.投资广告版面而非直接投钱。Start-ups usually get their initial seed funding—a few tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars—from family or friends.新成立的公司通常从家人或朋友那里获得初始的种子资金,通常是数万或数十万美元。A venture-capital firm wont step in until the firm is y to raise maybe ten times that amount.只有公司筹集到了数百万的资金时,风险投资才会介入。In America, intermediate sums tend to come from informal angel investors,在美国,过渡的资金通常来自于非正式的天使投资者,typically entrepreneurs who have made a decent bit of money from their own start-ups and want to invest some in projects they like.特别是由新成立的公司发家且希望投资一些中意项目的企业家。But outside Americas technology hubs, such people are rare.但是在美国科技中心之外,这样的人少之又少。However, start-ups of that size are often making their first baby steps into the market and need publicity.然而,这样规模的新成立的公司通常会迈着婴儿步进入市场并需要广告宣传。Aggregate Media Funds, a Swedish firm started in 2002,2002年成立的瑞典媒体公司媒体公基金集合了15家瑞典媒体提供的广告版面,pools excess advertising space provided by 15 Swedish media companies that are shareholders in the fund,并且以交换股权的形式给予新成立的公司。and gives it to start-ups in return for an equity stake.这15家媒体都是该基金的股东。If the firms do well, they buy back the equity in cash, which goes to the shareholders, with a cut for the fund.如果公司运作良好,他们就会用现金买回股权给予股东,并给基金一份利润。Patrik Rosen, Aggregates boss, says it has made some 120 investments—in both start-ups and established firms that want to advertise a new product or a stock offering—and completed around 80 exits,公基金的老板帕特里克·罗森表示给公司已经做大约120笔投资,都是投在需要为新产品或发行股票的新成立的公司或已成型的公司,并完成了大概80个公司的退市,though he wont disclose how much money has been made.但是他并不会透露赚了多少钱。Similar models have taken hold in Germany.德国也兴起了同样的模式。ProSiebenSat.1, a television company, has been offering other firms advertising in return for equity or revenue shares since , and reported making more than 40m in the past year.德国卫星电视频道ProSieben卫星一台在年就开始以交换股权或股份的形式为公司提供广告,去年盈利超过4千万欧元。A newer fund, German Media Pool, founded a year ago, combines a range of shareholders,成立于一年前的德国媒体基金像媒体公基金一样联合了一批股东。as Aggregate does, so it can offer its start-ups ads anywhere from billboards to TV.从广告牌到电视的任何地方,它都能够为新成立的公司投放广告。基金创始人尼科·华思车的目标是使投资者的钱翻倍。So why is the model not more widesp?为什么这个模式并没有更广泛的应用呢?It may have a bad reputation.可能是这个模式名声不好。Media firms that negotiate barter deals directly dont always do well:协商直接易货交易的媒体公司通常盈利状况不佳:they tend to lack the expertise to invest in start-ups, and the deals may not be transparent.他们通常缺乏投资新成立的公司的专业知识,并且协议可能不透明。Indias largest media firm, the Times Group, which publishes papers such as the Times of India, also owns a media-for-equity firm called Brand Capital, with stakes in around 400 companies.印度最大媒体公司时代集团在发行诸如印度时报之类的报纸的同时也拥有一家媒体换股权的公司,名叫品牌资金,该公司拥有大概400家公司的股份。In , under the name Times Private Treatie s, it got embroiled in controversy after Indias stockmarket regulator censured a group of people for conspiring to bump up the share price of one of its portfolio companies, and a Times Group journalist for midwifing media coverage.年,该公司以时代财产转让契约的名义卷入了一场争议。这场争议源于印度股票市场管理机构严厉指责一帮人串通抬高其中一家成员企业的股价和一位时代集团记者为媒体报道推波助澜。Critics say it is still hard to tell when Indian papers have financial links to firms they write about.批评者称目前仍然很难确定事情根底,因为印度报纸和其报道的公司有经济联系。Hence, Mr Rosen argues, the need for independent, diversified media funds to act as middlemen.所以罗森先生主张独立多样的媒体基金作为中间人。Even then, not all start-ups need ads—some are happy with social media—and many others would rather have cash instead.即使是那是也不是所有新成立的公司都需要广告,有些公司乐意使用社交媒体,而许多公司宁愿获得资金。Still, for some it is just what they need.然而对于一些公司来说这正是他们所需要的。And for the media firms, since the ads would otherwise go unfilled, any return is pure profit.对于一些媒体公司来说,若不投给新成立的公司,一些广告版面也会空白,所以一切收益都是纯利润。 /201306/243323。

At the box office电影票房My generation自我时代A new film divides public opinion关于新电影,观众的观点褒贬不一Champagnesocialists①香槟社会主义者A FILM about the hedonism of Chinas urban youth has laid bare the generation gap in Chinese society. ;Tiny Times;, which has taken 77m dollars in its first three weeks, follows the fortunes of four female friends at university in Shanghai,one of whom lands a job at a luxury fashion magazine. Equal parts ;The Devil Wears Prada; and ;Sex and the City; (minus the sex) it has resonated with the;me; generation aspiring to the lives of its protagonists, who totter around campus in expensive stilettos and buy each other fancy designer gifts.《小时代》,这部刻画了中国城市青年人享乐主义的电影暴露出了中国社会的巨大代沟,上映仅三周就狂揽7700万美金票房。影片描绘了四个上海女大学生的命运故事,其中一名女大学生还获得了一份豪华时尚杂志社的工作,相似的影片还有《穿Prada的女魔头》和《欲望都市》(直译为《性与都市》,而《小时代》就是去掉了性的《欲望都市》。)《小时代》很好的引起了生活在唯我时代人们的共鸣,他们所追求的便是影片主角的生活——在校园里脚踩细高跟摇来晃去,互相送一些高档名牌礼物。People who came of age in the turbulent but self-sacrificial Maoist era say the film embodies the moral bankruptcy of the moment. One famous older film critic scolded the films ;sick; parade of beauty and wealth, only to be attacked himself in microblogs. ;We have enthusiasm and dreams,; came one retort. ;We can fight for what we want.;成长于动荡却具有自我牺牲精神的毛主席时代的人们表示这部电影正好折射出了当前社会道德沦丧的一面。一位从事影评多年的知名影评人士批判这部电影表达出了对美貌与财富的病态炫耀,而他却在微中遭到网民的攻击。有人反驳说:;我们就是有这样的热情和梦想,我们有权为之奋斗。;Peoples Daily, the mouthpiece of the Communist Party, hinted that the release of such films should be controlled more tightly, prompting even some of the films detractors to defend it. Undaunted, its director, 30-year-old Guo Jingming, whose book of the same name sold 24m copies, announced that the sequel, ;Tiny Times 2;, would be released in August, four months early.《人民日报》,作为中国共产党的喉舌,也发文表示有关诸如此类电影上映的监管力度也应该再严一些,这样的做法甚至激起了一些原本反对这部电影的人站出来持它。卖出了2400万本同名小说作品的30岁的作家郭敬明,同时也是《小时代》的导演,非常无所畏惧地站出来宣布,续集《小时代2》也将比原计划提前四个月,在八月上映。①香槟社会主义者:[贬义阔佬社会主义者,声称持社会主义的高收入者 (指富有的左翼政治家,其生活方式与其所鼓吹的社会主义相悖)Champagne socialist is a pejorative political termoriginating in the ed Kingdom. The phrase is used to describe self-identified socialists whosecomfortable upper middle class lifestyles are perceived to be incompatible with their professed politicalconvictions. The term is used by opposing politicians to portray and ridiculetheir opponents as hypocritical. 201307/249419。