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2019年02月18日 00:40:53|来源:国际在线|编辑:度排名三甲医院
The news for the watch industry is bad. “The headwinds are very strong — especially for watches,” warns Richard Lepeu, chief executive of Richemont, the Swiss luxury goods group whose brands include Cartier and Montblanc. The group’s sales in April 2016 were 15 per cent lower than the year before, in constant currencies.来自钟表行业的消息不容乐观。历峰集团(Richemont)首席执行官里夏尔#8226;勒珀(Richard Lepeu)警告称:“阻力很大,对于钟表行业来说尤其如此。”这家瑞士奢侈品集团旗下品牌包括卡地亚(Cartier)和万宝龙(Montblanc)。历峰集团2016年4月按固定货币计算的销售额较上年同期下降了15%。Statistics on foreign sales of Swiss watches show trouble across the industry: in the first quarter of 2016, exports were 8.9 per cent lower than in the previous year, according to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry. The trouble has been blamed on a range of factors, from China’s economic slowdown to a strong Swiss franc.瑞士钟表产品海外销售额的统计数据显示,整个钟表行业都表现疲软:根据瑞士钟表协会(Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry)的数据,2016年第一季度的出口额较上年同期下降了8.9%。这一局面被归咎于多方面的因素,包括中国经济增长放缓以及瑞士法郎走强。The industry’s hope is that this year will bring an improvement, particularly in the US. “The global environment is tough mainly because of the significance of Hong Kong as a market. There is an overhang of inventories, but I think the more affordable watches are aly selling better,” says Scilla Huang Sun, a luxury sector specialist at GAM Investment Management in Zurich.瑞士钟表行业寄望于今年的状况能有一定起色,特别是在美国市场。总部位于苏黎世的GAM投资管理公司(GAM Investment Management)奢侈品行业专家黄意芝(Scilla Huang Sun)表示:“全球市场环境较为严峻,主要原因在于香港作为一个市场,地位很重要。目前奢侈手表存在库存积压的情况,但我认为价位更加亲民的手表,销售情况已经开始好转。”Even as Hong Kong has suffered, sales in Japan have been lifted by a weaker yen, which has lost 12 per cent of its value against the dollar since its 2015 low. The US this year could also offer grounds for optimism, sector experts reckon. Last year, a stronger dollar led to European purchases displacing US sales, but those effects may start to weaken.即便香港市场形势不利,日本市场的销售额在日元走软的推动下已经有所上升,日元兑美元汇率较2015年的低点已经贬值了12%。行业专家认为,对美国市场今年也有理由保持乐观。去年美元走强导致销售额从美国向欧洲市场转移,但这些影响或已开始弱化。“We can see that the American continent is showing great potential and positive growth,” says Fran#231;ois Thiébaud, president of Tissot, the Swiss watch brand.瑞士钟表品牌天梭(Tissot)的总裁弗朗索瓦#8226;蒂埃(Fran#231;ois Thiébaud)表示:“我们看到,美国市场正展现出巨大潜力和正向增长趋势。”A recovery in the US would strengthen the case for those who expect traditional luxury timepieces to ride out the challenge from smartwatches. Mr Thiébaud argues that, contrary to the watch industry’s gloomy view, the arrival of the Apple Watch has not changed US attitudes. “A traditional watch is not just about giving time, but it is also about conveying emotions related to a gift or a certain time in life,” he says. “There is nothing emotional about an electronic device.”美国市场回暖能够持那些认为传统奢侈手表能够顶住来自智能手表的挑战的观点。蒂埃认为,不同于手表行业的悲观预期,苹果手表(Apple Watch)的出现并没有改变美国消费者的态度。“一块传统手表的价值并不仅仅在于提示时间,还能传递与一份礼物或者生命中某一时期相连的特定情感。而电子产品则不具备任何情感价值。”Nobody is rushing to predict a rebound, however. “The global economy is going to be very slow this year. It may take a couple of years for the industry to pick up,” says May Ling Tham, an analyst at Euromonitor International. In April, the International Monetary Fund warned the global economic recovery had “weakened further amid increasing financial turbulence”. It expected the global economy to grow by a modest 3.2 per cent in 2016 — roughly the same as last year but less than it had expected as recently as January.但目前还没有人急着做出钟表行业将会触底反弹的预测。欧睿国际(Euromonitor International)分析师May Ling Tham表示:“今年全球经济增长将会非常疲软,钟表行业或许需要好几年的时间才能有所回升。”国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)今年4月警告称,“全球经济复苏进一步放缓,受金融动荡加剧影响。”该组织预计2016年全球经济增速将仅为3.2%——与去年基本持平,但低于其在今年1月份发布的预测值。In emerging markets — previously bright spots for luxury brands — “prospects across countries remain uneven and generally weaker than over the past two decades”, the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reported.在曾是奢侈品牌业绩亮点的新兴市场,国际货币基金组织在《世界经济展望》(World Economic Outlook)中指出,“各个新兴市场国家的经济增长前景仍然参差不齐,增长势头总体而言弱于过去二十年。”Watch and jewellery industry revenues are likely to follow such trends closely. “The health of luxury watch sales largely depends on GDP growth prospects and consumer sentiment,” says Thomas Chauvet, luxury sector analyst at Citigroup.手表和珠宝行业的销售收入很可能将紧跟上述趋势。花旗集团(Citigroup)奢侈品行业分析师托马斯#8226;肖维(Thomas Chauvet)表示:“奢侈品手表销售的景气程度主要取决于国内生产总值的增长前景以及消费者情绪。”But it is not a simple correlation. Watch sales have been buffeted by currency movements. The slide in Swiss watch exports has been exacerbated by the strength of the franc (1.20 to the euro before it was unpegged in January 2015, now 1.10), which has increased manufacturing and employment costs in Switzerland. A strong dollar and weak euro have offered “greater price arbitrage opportunities for tourists and facilitated the emergence of well-organised parallel markets, particularly in Europe”, notes Mr Chauvet.但这并不是一种简单的正相关关系。手表销售一直受汇率波动左右。瑞士手表出口额的下滑在瑞士法郎走强的影响下进一步恶化(瑞士法郎在2015年1月取消盯住欧元时的汇率为1.2瑞士法郎兑换1欧元,现在已经升值至1.1法郎兑换1欧元),后者导致瑞士境内的生产成本和雇佣成本上升。肖维指出,美元走强和欧元疲软为游客提供了“更大的价格套利空间,并有助于推动组织完善的平行市场的出现,特别是在欧洲地区”。Sales to the Chinese, meanwhile, are still being hit by the crackdown on offering gifts to authorities as part of the country’s anti-corruption drive.与此同时,中国市场的销售额仍然受到政府严厉打击向官员送礼的不利影响,这是中国反腐败运动的一个组成部分。The industry’s difficulties remain particularly acute in Hong Kong, where the effects have been worsened by excessive stock levels in an overcrowded market. Swiss watch exports to Hong Kong were almost a third lower in the first quarter of 2016 than a year earlier.手表行业所面临的困境在香港市场上依然表现得尤为突出,在过度拥挤的香港市场上,过高的存货水平进一步强化了这些不利因素的影响。2016年第一季度,瑞士对香港的手表出口额较上年同期近乎减少了三分之一。Richemont revealed recently it was helping dealers in Hong Kong with excessive inventories by buying back products — and either reallocating them to other markets or dismantling and recycling them.历峰集团近期宣布,正在通过回购产品的方式帮助香港境内库存过多的经销商——回购的手表要么被调转到其他市场销售,要么被拆解以后循环利用。In a report published in April, Euromonitor forecast that in the next five years the US would cede the title of the world’s biggest spender on watches to China. “The transfer of power from west to east had seemed on course to happen earlier, but was derailed by the Chinese government’s crackdown on ostentation and extravagant gifts, and by a depreciation of the Chinese currency since 2015,” the report noted.在4月份发布的一篇报告中,欧睿国际预计在未来五年内,美国将把全球第一大手表消费国的地位让给中国。这份报告写到:“从西方向东方的影响力转移似乎注定会在更短的时间内发生,但这一进程被中国政府严查铺张浪费和奢侈送礼的运动打乱,同时也受到了自2015年以来人民币贬值的影响。” /201607/457196China#39;s population of emerging social class, who have emerged since the reform and opening-up policy launched in 1978, stands at 72 million people, according to a report.一份报告称,我国新社会阶层人口规模已达7200万,这一阶层自1978年推行改革开放政策以来涌现。48 million of them are managers or technicians at private and foreign-funded companies, 14 million from intermediary organizations and social organizations, 11 million are freelance, and 10 million work at new media. Some people have two or more occupations.其中,4800万人是民营企业和外商投资企业管理技术人员;1400万人为中介组织和社会组织从业人员;1100万人是自由职业人员;1000万人为新媒体从业人员。部分人员从事两种或以上职业。In Beijing, high-income earners account for 8.4% of the city#39;s population. The number is 14.8 percent in Shanghai, and 13.6% in Guangzhou, according to a blue book published by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.中国社会科学院出版的一本蓝皮书中称,北京高收入人口占城市总人口的8.4%,而上海的这一数字是14.8%,广州则是13.6%。The average annual income of the high-income earners in 2016 is 166,403 yuan, or double the amount of the national average.2016年这一高收入人群的平均年收入达166403元,是全国平均水平的两倍。Average spending among these earners in last year was over 131,459 yuan, or 1.7 times the national average.而消费平均数达131459元,是全国平均水平的1.7倍。But the majority of the new class doesn#39;t believe their family or themselves belong to the mid-income class.不过大多数新社会阶层人士不认为其所在家庭或本人属于中产阶层。The blue book analyzed that since the new class is mainly living in large cities, high housing prices and work pressure made them not believe that they belong to the mid-income class.该蓝皮书分析称,由于新社会阶层主要居住在大城市,高企的房价和巨大的工作压力使他们认为自己不属于中产阶层。 /201701/489306In his first live “Late Show” broadcast since the start of the Republican National Convention, Stephen Colbert promised the return of an old friend from his basic-cable days, but instead, viewers got to see two familiar faces: first, Jon Stewart, the longtime host of “The Daily Show,” and then “Stephen Colbert,” the unctuous conservative commentator that Mr. Colbert portrayed for nearly a decade on his Comedy Central program, “The Colbert Report.”在共和党全国大会揭幕后主持的首次直播《深夜秀》(Late Show)中,斯蒂芬·科尔伯特(Stephen Colbert)承诺会有自己在有线电视基础套餐岁月里的一位老朋友回归。然而,观众们却看到了两张熟悉的面孔:一是长期主持《每日秀》(The Daily Show)的乔恩·斯图尔特(Jon Stewart,网络昵称为“囧司徒”——编注);二是科尔伯特在喜剧中心频道(Comedy Central)主持《科尔伯特报告》(The Colbert Report,网络昵称为“扣扣熊报告”——编注)期间塑造了近十年的一个角色:油腔滑调的保守派人“斯蒂芬·科尔伯特”。The guest appearances from Mr. Stewart and that other Mr. Colbert appear to have paid off for “The Late Show.” According to preliminary ratings information on Tuesday, “The Late Show” was the No. 1 broadcast late-night show in overall viewership on Monday night, the first time the program has surpassed all its competitors (including Jimmy Fallon’s “Tonight” show on N and “Jimmy Kimmel Live” on A) since Feb. 15.斯图尔特和另一位科尔伯特的客串让《深夜秀》受益匪浅。根据周二公布的初步收视数据,《深夜秀》是周一晚间总体收视人数最高的深夜脱口秀,令其自2月15日以来首次傲视所有竞争者(包括N播出的吉米·法伦[Jimmy Fallon]主持的《今夜秀》[Tonight] 和A播出的《吉米·凱莫直播秀》[Jimmy Kimmel Live])。“The Late Show” announced in June that it would present two weeks of live broadcasts, Monday through Thursday, to air after each night of the Republican and Democratic conventions. Though the current iteration of the program made its debut to considerable fanfare in September, it has had trouble finding a consistent voice under Mr. Colbert, who succeeded David Letterman as host and who has tried to expand his horizons beyond the irreverent political comedy he performed on “The Colbert Report.”今年6月,《深夜秀》宣布将进行两周直播,从周一到周四,在共和与民主两党全国大会召开期间的每个晚上播出。尽管这档节目去年9月改版首播时激起了不小的水花,但此后在科尔伯特的主持下却一直苦于寻找连贯的声音。科尔伯特当时是从大卫·莱特曼(David Letterman)手中接过的话筒,一直试图突破他在《科尔伯特报告》中表演的那种肆无忌惮的政治搞笑。Monday’s installment of “The Late Show” on CBS began with an elaborate, pretaped musical number performed by Mr. Colbert, paying satirical tribute to the Republican convention in Cleveland and the party’s presumptive presidential nominee, Donald J. Trump. (As Mr. Colbert sang: “This week, you and me, we will witness history / As the R.N.C. crowns their orange manatee.”)周一晚间CBS播放的《深夜秀》一上来是预先录制的科尔伯特表演的音乐剧片段。这段经过精心编排的节目对在克利夫兰召开的共和党大会及锁定该党总统提名的唐纳德·J·特朗普(Donald J. Trump)进行了冷嘲热讽。(科尔伯特唱到:“这星期,我和你,要见历史。共和党全国大会要给他们的橙色海牛加冕。”)The host followed with a live monologue in which he riffed on moments from the first night of convention and Mr. Trump’s “60 Minutes” interview with his running mate, Gov. Mike Pence of Indiana.接下来,科尔伯特进行了一段现场独白,重现了大会开幕当晚及特朗普与竞选搭档——印第安纳州州长迈克·彭斯(Mike Pence)——共同接受《60分钟》(60 Minutes)节目采访时的精片段。Later, a taped comedy sketch followed Mr. Colbert to what appeared to be an isolated cabin in the woods, where he knocked on its door and was greeted by a bearded, bathrobe-clad Mr. Stewart, who was Mr. Colbert’s boss for many years at “The Daily Show” and is now an executive producer of “The Late Show.” Alerting Mr. Stewart that it was once again time for a Republican convention, an animated Mr. Colbert told him, “You will not believe who the nominee is.” He paused to let Mr. Stewart take a sizable drink of water from a mug, then told him, “It’s Donald Trump,” at which point Mr. Stewart doused him in a sizable spit take.这之后是一段预先录制的小品。科尔伯特似乎来到了深山老林中一栋孤零零的木屋前,他敲开了门,眼前出现了胡子拉碴、裹着睡袍的斯图尔特。他曾是科尔伯特在《每日秀》期间多年的上司,如今还是《深夜秀》的执行制片人。科尔伯特激动地告诉斯图尔特,又到了共和党召开大会的日子了,“你怎么也不会相信提名人是谁。”他停下来等待斯图尔特从杯子里喝了一大口水,然后告诉他,“是唐纳德·特朗普呀!”于是斯图尔特一口水全喷到了他脸上。The sketch revealed that Mr. Stewart had been sharing his cabin with the Colbert character (brandishing a sword and a Captain America shield). And then “Stephen Colbert” (still holding the sword and shield) returned to the Ed Sullivan Theater and performed a new edition of “The Word,” a recurring segment from “The Colbert Report,” which ran from 2005 to 2014.小品演到后来,观众发现斯图尔特的木屋里还有一个“科尔伯特”(挥舞着一把剑和美国队长的盾牌)。这位“斯蒂芬·科尔伯特”(依然拿着长剑和盾牌)随后回到了埃德·沙利文剧场,表演了新版的“说文解字”(The Word)。这是2005到2014年播出的《科尔伯特报告》中反复出现的一个环节。Just as “The Colbert Report” helped introduce audiences to the word “truthiness,” Mr. Colbert used this latest installment to contemplate the condition of “Trumpiness”: “Remember, elections aren’t about what voters think, it’s about what voters feel. And right now, at least half of Americans feel their voices aren’t being heard.” (An onscreen graphic delivered the punch line: “Especially Mike Pence.”)正如《科尔伯特报告》向观众介绍了“感实性”(truthiness)的概念,科尔伯特在最新这期《深夜秀》中思考了“特朗普感实性”(Trumpiness)的用法:“请记住,选举的关键不是选民的想法,而是选民的感受。今时今日,至少有一半美国人感到自己的声音没有得到倾听。”(此时屏幕上打出了点睛之笔:“尤其是迈克·彭斯”。)After a commercial break, Mr. Colbert returned as — presumably — himself. “It was really great to see Jon Stewart again,” he said. With a knowing smile, he added: “You know what would be nice? To have that happen again some time this week.”广告过后,科尔伯特意料之中地以本尊回归。“又一次看到乔恩·斯图尔特真是太好了,”他说。带着意味深长的微笑,他又开了口:“你们知道什么会很棒吗?那就是,本周什么时候再这么来一回。” /201607/455634

Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Ex-President of Iran, Dies at 82伊朗前总统拉夫桑贾尼逝世,享年82岁Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former president of Iran and a founder of the Islamic Republic, who navigated the opaque shoals of his country’s theocracy as one of its most enduring and wealthiest leaders, died Sunday in Tehran. He was 82.伊朗前总统、这个伊斯兰共和国开国元勋阿亚图拉阿里·阿克巴尔·哈什米·拉夫桑贾尼(Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani)周日在德黑兰去世,享年82岁。作为伊朗影响力最持久、最富有的领导人之一,他领导该国度过了神权政治的诸多险滩。His death was announced by Iran’s state television.伊朗官方电视台宣布了他离世的消息。As his career seesawed through periods of revolutionary zeal and confrontation with powerful conservative rivals, he was portrayed as a Machiavellian and often ruthless player in the power struggles among Iran’s elite factions, protected by his close association with Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the revolutionary leader who overthrew the shah in 1979.他的职业生涯随着革命热情的不同时期和强大保守派对手的挑战而起伏不定。在这个过程中,他被描绘成伊朗精英派中一个在权力斗争上不择手段,而且往往冷酷无情的角色。他因为与1979年推翻伊朗国王的革命领袖阿亚图拉鲁霍拉·霍梅尼(Ruhollah Khomeini)关系密切,而受到保护。Known as a pragmatist and centrist inclined toward economic liberalism and political authoritarianism, Rafsanjani was accused by critics of corruption in amassing his fortune and of a iness for harsh tactics to deal with dissent.拉夫桑贾尼被认为是一名实用主义者和中间派,在经济上倾向自由主义,在政治上倾向威权主义。批评人士指控他腐败,积聚大量财富,对待异见者经常采取严酷手段。Argentina has accused Rafsanjani and other senior Iranian figures of complicity in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, in which 85 people died. In 1997, a German court concluded that the highest levels of Iran’s political leadership had ordered the killing five years earlier of four exiled Iranian Kurdish dissidents in Berlin. Rafsanjani was president from 1989 to 1997.阿根廷指控拉夫桑贾尼及其他伊朗高层领导人是1994年布宜诺斯艾利斯一个犹太人社区中心爆炸案的幕后主使,那起事件导致85人丧生。1997年,一座德国法院得出结论,称伊朗最高政治领导层在五年前下令杀害了五名流亡柏林的伊朗库尔德异见者。拉夫桑贾尼于1989年至1997年间担任伊朗总统。Yet many Western analysts believed that he sought a less confrontational relationship with the ed States than other powerful figures in the Iranian hierarchy. Rafsanjani, for instance, was credited with suggesting that “Death to America” be dropped from the litany of slogans at Tehran’s Friday prayers.但是,许多西方分析人士认为,相比伊朗统治集团的其他权势人物,他寻求与美国达成少一些对抗的关系。比如,外界认为是拉夫桑贾尼提议将“美国灭亡”的口号从德黑兰周五的祈祷文中去除。In the closing stages of the Iran-Iraq war, which lasted from 1980 to 1988, Rafsanjani was appointed acting commander in chief of Iranian forces and was widely credited with persuading the leadership in Tehran to accept a U.N. resolution that ended the fighting.在1980年至1988年进行的两伊战争的最后阶段,拉夫桑贾尼被任命为伊朗部队代理总司令。外界普遍认为,是他劝说德黑兰领导层接受了联合国一项结束战斗的决议。For much of his career, he maintained roles in parliament and on influential clerical panels.在职业生涯的大部分时间里,他一直在议会和有影响力的神职人员专家会议里担任职位。Rafsanjani’s clout declined sharply during the presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, from 2005 to 2013. A populist conservative, Ahmadinejad had a strong following among poor Iranians, many of whom resented the affluence that endeared Rafsanjani to his wealthier compatriots.在马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪-内贾德(Mahmoud Ahmadinejad)于2005年至2013年担任伊朗总统期间,拉夫桑贾尼的影响力急剧下降。作为一名民粹主义保守派,艾哈迈迪-内贾德在伊朗穷人中有很强的号召力,其中不少人憎恨财富,但恰恰是财富让拉夫桑贾尼深受他那些有钱同胞的喜爱。In 2013, Rafsanjani was disqualified from standing in presidential elections and swung his political weight behind a moderate, longtime associate, Hassan Rouhani, who won the vote and went on to bring many of Rafsanjani’s supporters into his Cabinet and to negotiate the nuclear agreement with the ed States in 2015.2013年,拉夫桑贾尼被取消了总统竞选资格,他将自己的政治影响力转移到老朋友、温和派的哈桑·鲁哈尼(Hassan Rouhani)身上,后者赢得了大选,继而将拉夫桑贾尼的许多持者召入自己的内阁,并在2015年与美国达成了核协议。 /201701/487664

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