时间:2019年04月21日 06:10:20

The Spring Festival Travel Rush, also known as Chunyun in Chinese, or Spring Festival Travel Season / Transportation Peak is considered to be the largest annual migration.It is the special period when China faces an extremely high traffic load, which results in great transportation problems, especially on the railway services.春运是中国在农历春节前后发生的一种大规模的高交通运输压力的现象,尤其是火车运输方面的压力。Millions of people working or studying out of their hometowns will be hurrying home to reunite with families as the Chinese Spring Festival approaches. This long-held tradition is the main reason for the rush. The other is that the holiday is one of the two week-long holidays of the year, a perfect travel time for many people. The rush usually begins 15 days ahead of the Chinese Lunar New Year and 25 days after that. 成千上万在外求学的人或者在外工作的人都会在春节临近时回家团圆。这个传统是造成春运压力的主要原因。另外一个原因就是春节正好是中国两大黄金周之一,是许多人旅游的好时机。春运一般从节前15天开始到节后25天结束。During the 40 days of Chunyun period, the inter-city transportation faces great challenges. The demand for tickets far exceeds the supply. Various measures are adopted to alleviate the problem by opening many temporary trains (numbers starting with letter L), extending the working hours of booking office and opening up more booths.在春运期间,国内的交通运输将面临极大的挑战,车票供小于求。铁路局会采取多种措施来应对春运压力,比如开设临客(L字头的列车)、延长售票时间以及开设更多的售票点。 /201312/269263

One in three homeowners admit they regularly #39;spy#39; on their neighbours, it emerged yesterday.And nearly half say they peek from behind the curtains whenever they hear #39;goings-on#39; in their street。Almost 50 per cent of people surveyed said they could recite the times their neighbours leave and return from work and spot a new car immediately, with a fifth noticing if a stranger visits。Noticing parcels being delivered, if a couple argue more than normal or even when the online shopping comes, were other common aspects people knew about those living close by。But one in ten admit they had been caught peering through the windows by their neighbour。The study of 2,000 adults – commissioned by Yale as part of National Home Security Month – found that the most common reason given for keeping tabs on the neighbours was #39;to check they are all right#39;。For neighbours even the intimacy of a relationship is common knowledge - over a quarter knew a neighbouring couple were having real troubles and one in ten even know a neighbour currently having an affair。Nigel Fisher, from Yale, lead sponsor of National Home Security Month, said: #39;This shows just how closely the people who live next to us are watching and the things that don#39;t go unnoticed。#39;However, the results show that where people did admit to keeping tabs on a neighbour it was usually with good intentions of making sure everything#39;s alright.#39;The study also saw a quarter of people confess to spying on the neighbours at least once a week。据英国《每日邮报》报道,有1/3的屋主都承认自己会定期“监视”邻居。更有近半数的人说自己只要听到街上有“骚动”就会躲在窗帘后面偷窥外面的情况。受访的人中几乎一半表示他们能背出邻居出门和回家的时间并能一眼看出来邻居是否换了新车,有1/5的受访者表示能察觉到邻居家有陌生人来访。这还不算什么,谁签收了包裹,隔壁夫妻俩是不是吵得更厉害了,甚至于别人网上买的东西什么时候到这种邻居家的琐事,我们都一清二楚。但是,有1/10的受访者承认自己曾被邻居抓到过在窗户边儿偷看。这项对2000名成人的调查由耶鲁大学委托进行,是美国全国家庭安全月(National Home Security Month)的活动项目之一。调查发现,当被问到为什么要密切关注邻居的动向时,大家说得最多的理由就是“只是为了看看他们是不是一切都好”。了解邻居的婚恋关系甚至也是小菜一碟儿——超过1/4的受访者称自己知道隔壁夫妻俩出现了感情危机,1/10的人甚至还知道邻居有外遇。耶鲁大学的尼格·费希尔(Nigel Fisher)是全国家庭安全月的主要赞助商,他说:“由此可见邻居把我们看得有多紧,几乎没有什么能逃过他们的眼睛。”“然而,调查结果显示,大家承认会密切关注邻居,但通常都是出于好心想确认对方一切都好。”调查中一半人坦言自己会“监视”邻居且至少一周一次。

China’s labour force is shrinking and the “migrant miracle” that powered its industrial rise is mostly exhausted, removing the key drivers of the country’s meteoric growth, according to leading economists.一些著名经济学家表示,中国的劳动力队伍正在萎缩,驱动工业腾飞的“移民奇迹”几近枯竭,这使中国失去了推动经济飞速发展的关键驱动力。The transformation will lead to slower growth, reduced investment and a loss of competitiveness, increasing the urgency of reforms to fuel new sources of expansion, they warn.他们警告称,这一转变将导致增长放缓、投资减少和竞争力的损失,使实施改革以发掘新的增长源变得更为紧迫。Today the Financial Times begins a series on the end of the miracle — the three decades of rapid growth fuelled by unprecedented migration of labour from the unproductive farm sector to work in factories and construction.30年来,推动中国飞速发展的,是从生产力低下的农业部门转移到工厂和建设工地、规模前所未有的劳动力迁徙。FT中文网近期将发表一系列关于中国劳动力迁徙潮及其起伏兴衰之趋势的报道。Consensus has emerged that China has reached the point at which the once-inexhaustible pool of surplus rural labour dries up and wages rise rapidly.经济学家们形成的共识是,中国已经到达一个拐点,曾经取之不尽的农村富余劳动力正慢慢干涸,工资水平迅速上升。“Now we are at the so-called Lewis inflection point,” said Ha Jiming, chief investment strategist for private wealth management at Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong. “The working-age share of China’s population peaks this year at 72 per cent, then it will start to fall even more rapidly than what we saw in Japan in the 1990s.”“我们现在正处于所谓的刘易斯拐点,”高盛(Goldman Sachs)香港私人财富管理首席投资策略师哈继铭说,“今年中国工龄人口在总人口中的比例达到了72%的峰值,此后这一比例将加快下降,降速比上世纪90年代的日本还要快。”Cai Fang, director of the Institute of Population and Labour Economics, estimates China’s potential gross domestic product growth will fall to 6.1 per cent from 2016-20.人口与劳动经济研究所所长蔡昉估计,中国的潜在国内生产总值(GDP)增长率将在2016到2020年间跌至6.1%。Since Deng Xiaoping launched market reforms in 1978, 278m migrant workers from rural villages have moved to the cities. But the process is now mostly complete. Mr Cai said: “From 2005 to 2010, the growth rate of migrant workers was 4 per cent. Last year it was only 1.3 per cent. Maybe this year it will contract.”自1978年邓小平推出市场改革后,已有2.78亿农民工从农村迁移到城市。但这一进程现在已经几近完成。蔡昉说:“从2005年到2010年,农民工人数的增长率是4%。去年这一增长率仅为1.3%。今年这个数字可能出现缩减。” /201505/373425

Smokers in the developed world are out in the cold. Regulators have moved smoking from bars into streets; advertising has moved from screens to, at best, still pictures. Two years ago, Australia introduced “plain” packaging – adorned with such gruesome warnings that the adjective hardly fits.发达世界的烟民受到了冷落。监管机构已迫使吸烟者从酒吧转战街头,烟草广告也从屏幕上转移到至多是静止的图片上。两年前,澳大利亚还推出了香烟的“平装”包装,但包装上印制的可怕警示可一点儿也不“平淡”。Yet the stocks have done well. Since late 2008, the top five names in the sector have returned between 144 per cent (Imperial) and 347 per cent (Altria). Most tobacco companies have beaten the 130 per cent return of the MSCI World index. Such resilience may be ending.然而,烟草公司的股票表现不错。自2008年末以来,5大烟草公司的股价回升幅度在144%(帝国烟草(Imperial))至347%(奥驰亚(Altria))之间。大多数烟草公司的股价超过了根士丹利资本国际全球指数(MSCI World Index) 130%的涨幅。这样的强韧表现可能要结束了。This week China, home to 300m smokers and accounting for a third of the world’s tobacco use, according to Euromonitor, announced a ban in Beijing’s indoor public spaces, to commence in June.本周,北京市政府宣布,从明年6月起,北京室内公共场所将全面禁止吸烟。欧睿信息咨询公司(Euromonitor)的数据显示,中国有3亿烟民,贡献了全球三分之一的烟草消费量。The Chinese market is dominated by state-owned enterprises and counterfeit goods, so the direct impact on multinationals will be small. But the message is clear. Growth will become harder to find, even in the emerging world.中国市场由国有企业和假冒伪劣产品主导,因此控烟令对跨国公司的直接影响将会很小。但它传递的信息是明确的。烟草行业将更难找到增长机会,即便在新兴世界。Last year, tougher regulations hit developed-market volumes and even pricing – often hidden behind tax rises – is softening a bit.去年,更为严厉的监管打击了发达市场的销售量,甚至定价(通常隐藏在加税背后)也有所松动。So far this year, both Japan Tobacco and Philip Morris International have seen sales declines accelerate in previously reliable markets such as eastern Europe.今年迄今以来,日本烟草(Japan Tobacco)和菲利普莫里斯国际公司(Philip Morris International)在东欧等之前可靠市场的销售全都加速下滑。Forecasts are faltering: expected earnings per share have fallen about one-tenth as the year has progressed. Typical is Philip Morris, with 70 per cent of sales in emerging markets. Since its 2008 spin-off from US-focused parent Altria, the company has achieved annual earnings per share growth of one-tenth. This year, growth will fall 6 per cent.预期也很惨淡:随着时间的推移,预期每股收益下降了十分之一左右。70%的销售来自新兴市场的菲利普莫里斯国际公司尤为典型。自2008年从其专注于美国市场的母公司奥驰亚拆分出来之后,该公司的每股收益每年增长10%。今年其每股收益将同比下降6%。Japan Tobacco and British American have a similar tale of woe. And yet the stocks are not cheap, on mid-teens multiples of 2015 EPS.日本烟草和英美烟草公司(British American)同病相怜。然而,它们的股价并不便宜,2015年的预期市盈率达到15倍左右。These companies generate lots of cash. Their dividends look safe. But weaker profits could cut into share buybacks. These have long been a key reason to invest in Philip Morris shares.这些公司产生了大量的现金。它们的股息发放看起来没有问题。但利润下降可能影响到股票回购。股票回购长期以来一直是投资者买入菲利普莫里斯股票的关键原因。British American had been ramping up buybacks, until its recent investment in Reynolds American. Quitting will be hard.英美烟草公司在最近投资于雷诺烟草(Reynolds American)之前一直在加大股票回购力度。退出将很艰难。 /201412/346753

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