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Paris remains eerily quiet. Straight after the terrorist attacks, on November 13, the tourists disappeared. Now, in grey January, the world’s formerly most visited city still feels empty. In the silence, Parisians can gauge where the attacks have left us.巴黎依然安静得出奇。去年11月13日的恐怖袭击之后,游客消失了。如今,在灰色的1月,这个以前全球游客最多的城市仍然感觉空荡荡的。在沉默中,掂量着恐袭给自己造成的影响。My office is in the eastern 11th arrondissement, focal point of both sets of 2015 attacks. The little local post office now has a full-time guard to check customers’ bags. A few doors down, the Belle Equipe café — where 19 people were murdered in November — is boarded up, to reopen God knows when. My favourite local restaurant is offering an unchanging daily all week, presumably because with almost no customers there’s little point buying food every day. But you can get a table any time, and eating is still much of the point of Paris, so you sit there instinctively calculating where you’d run if gunmen walked in.我的办公室位于巴黎东部第11大区,是2015年两次恐怖袭击的发生地。当地的小邮局现在配备了一位全职保安,检查客户的包包。走过几个门,就到了11月有19人遇难的Belle Equipe咖啡馆,这里现在被木板封住,天知道何时才恢复营业。我最喜爱的一家当地餐厅菜单整周不变,大概是因为几乎没有客人,每天买菜已没有意义。但任何时候你都能找到空桌,饮食仍然是巴黎生活的一件重要事情,因此你坐在那里,本能地思忖如果有手走进来,你要往哪跑。Perversely, the horrors have helped give Paris’s east side an identity. The historically poorer east, even after gentrification, was always the neglected Paris. It ranked below les beaux quartiers (“the beautiful neighbourhoods” in the west and on the Left Bank), just as Brooklyn ranked below Manhattan. The local Place de la République, for decades a big roundabout with a dirty old statue of Marianne, symbol of the republic, was Paris’s drabbest square.变态的是,恐怖事件帮助巴黎东部获得了一种身份认同。自古以来,东部地区较为贫困,即便在中产阶级化之后也是巴黎受到忽视的部分。它的地位低于几个美丽的邻近地区(包括位于西部和左岸的“美丽地段”),就像布鲁克林的地位低于曼哈顿那样。几十年来,当地的共和国广场(Place de la République)是一个大型环岛,矗立着脏脏的法兰西共和国象征玛丽安娜(Marianne)的旧雕像,是巴黎最没有生气的广场。But last year’s attacks targeted the east’s nightlife, its partially Jewish heritage and its bohemian classes as represented by Charlie Hebdo magazine. The evening of the Charlie attacks last January, thousands of people filled République — which, by chance, had recently been redesigned. The crowd chanted, “Liberty of expression!” (only in Paris) and honoured the murdered cartoonists. Days later, western heads of government shuffled east together from République down the unlovely Boulevard Voltaire, looking terrified.但去年的恐袭瞄准了东部地区的夜生活、其一定程度上的犹太传统以及以《查理周刊》(Charlie Hebdo)为代表的放荡不羁的阶层。去年1月《查理周刊》恐袭当晚,数千人涌入共和国广场,碰巧的是,那个广场刚被重新设计。人群高唱“言论自由!”(只是在巴黎),向遇难的漫画家致敬。几天后,西方政府首脑手挽手从共和国广场向东走上伏尔泰大道(Boulevard Voltaire),神色恐惧。République is now again a site of pilgrimage. In the evenings you see people lighting candles around the statue, scrawling the strangest messages, or singing John Lennon’s “Imagine”. The poet Jacques Prévert said of late 1940s Saint-Germain, “Perhaps it takes a war to launch a quartier.” Now terrorism has launched République.共和国广场现在再次变成了一个朝圣之地。晚上,你会看到人们在玛丽安娜雕像周围点燃蜡烛,写下最奇怪的留言或者唱起约翰列侬(John Lennon)的《想象》(Imagine)。诗人雅克渠莱维尔(Jacques Prévert)在谈到上世纪40年代末的圣日耳曼时表示:“或许这需要一场战争来创建一个地区。”如今,恐怖主义创建了共和国广场。But eastern Paris is scared. Two days after the November attacks, the ringleader Abdelhamid Abaaoud boasted (according to a witness) that “there will be other [attacks]”. These “would do even worse in the neighbourhoods near the Jews”, including “diversions on transport and in the schools”. Perhaps this was just a terrorist pipe dream but it’s stressful if you have kids in local schools. Parents and the headmaster of our school are currently debating whether or not we need an armed policeman in front.但巴黎东部感到恐慌。在11月恐袭两天后,主谋阿卜杜勒哈米德阿巴伍德(Abdelhamid Abaaoud)曾夸耀称(据一位目击者称)“还会有别的‘袭击’”。“在邻近犹太人的地区会更严重”,包括“对交通和学校的佯攻”。或许这只是恐怖分子的白日梦,但如果你的孩子在当地学校上学的话,你会感到紧张力了。我们家孩子学校的家长们和校长正在辩论是否需要申请在校门口安排一名佩的警察。The new fear overlies the longstanding French morosité: national discontent with the country’s path (or lack of path). Over lunch recently, I listened to a high-status Parisian deliver the ritual rant about the government that ends with, “C’est n’importe quoi” (roughly, “It’s a mess”). I’ve been hearing this speech since moving to Paris in 2002 but, for the first time, I thought: “Yes, it really is that bad.”新的担忧叠加在法国的长期愁云上:对国家道路(或者说没有道路)的全国性不满。在最近的一次午餐中,我听到一位身份很高的针对法国政府发泄老一套的抱怨,最后说“这是个烂摊子”。自2002年我搬到巴黎以来,我一直在听这种演讲,但这一次我终于认为:“没错,真的有那么糟糕。”I had previously believed French morosité was exaggerated. True, France was struggling, but so were all western nations after the crisis of 2008. Now, though, France is doing worse than others. Before, it could look at Italy and think, “There’s a country that really hasn’t adjusted to modernity.” But, lately, Italy has reformed its rigid labour market, cutting unemployment. So has Spain. France has done much less, so far at least.我曾认为法国的愁云被夸大了。没错,法国苦撑了几年,但2008年金融危机后的西方国家都是如此。然而,法国当下的表现比其他国家更糟糕。以前,它可以看着意大利,心里想:“还有一个国家真的没有适应现代性。”但意大利近来改革了本国僵化的劳动力市场,降低了失业率。西班牙也是如此。法国在这方面做得少很多——至少迄今如此。The brainy people who run this country mostly know what needs changing. In the office of one senior government aide, I saw a whiteboard on which someone had written a sort of national mea culpa, in English: “If it moves, tax it. If it still moves, regulate it. If it doesn’t move, subsidise it.”统治这个国家的聪明人士基本上了解什么方面需要改变。在一位政府高级助理的办公室,我看到一块白板,有人在上面用英文写了一段类似国民自嘲的话:“如果动,就对它收税。如果还动,就进行监管。如果不动了,就给它补贴。”...……But French governments dare not reform. They presume (perhaps rightly) that most French voters think that the status quo is terrible but must never be changed. And so unemployment keeps rising, recently reaching a new record of 3.59 million. Now President Hollande has come up with a brilliant scheme to cut joblessness: shift 500,000 unemployed people into training programmes.但法国政府不敢改革。他们假定(或许是正确的)大多数法国选民认为,虽然现状很糟糕,但绝不能改变。因此,失业率持续上升,最近达到了创纪录的359万。如今,总统弗朗索瓦攠朗德( Hollande)想出了一个减少失业的妙计:将50万失业人士转移至培训项目。Another brilliant Hollande scheme (soon backtracked from, like most Hollande schemes) was to strip convicted dual-national terrorists of French citizenship. This fantastically pointless gesture has aly spawned weeks of furious debate. Meanwhile, the land of liberty lives under a state of emergency expected to continue (according to prime minister Manuel Valls) until Isis is defeated. Even George W Bush didn’t go that far after the attacks of 9/11.奥朗德的另一项妙计(像他的多数计划那样,很快就被放弃)是剥夺被判有罪的、拥有双重国籍的恐怖分子的法国国籍。这一几乎毫无意义的举动已经引发了数周的激烈辩论。与此同时,总理曼努埃尔瓦尔斯(Manuel Valls)表示,这块自由之地上的紧急状态还将持续,直至“伊斯兰国”(ISIS)被击溃。即使美国前总统乔治圠布什(George W Bush)在9/11恐怖袭击之后也没有做得这么极端。Add on the damage from terror to race relations, plus the first fall in French life expectancy since 1969, and no wonder France’s far right is at a postwar high. Next year’s election may pit Hollande and former president Nicolas Sarkozy — two bad films we’ve aly seen — against the far right’s Marine Le Pen, a horror movie that surely won’t get made.恐怖袭击破坏了种族关系,加上法国人的预期寿命出现了自1969年以来的首次下降,这也难怪法国极右势力达到了战后的高点。明年大选,我们或许将看到奥朗德、前总统尼古拉萨科齐(Nicolas Sarkozy)——我们已经看过的两场糟糕电影——对垒极右翼的马琳勒庞(Marine Le Pen)——令人不堪设想的恐怖电影。For now we sit in cafés, enjoying what is still the best daily life in human history, and hope that one day we will look back and think: and just at that moment of maximum bleakness, France turned itself around.现在,我们坐在咖啡馆里,享受人类历史上最美好的日常生活,并希望有一天我们可以回顾并思考:正是在最黯淡的时刻,法国实现了转变。 /201602/425872。

Calm down dear my fellow interviewee instructed me on B Newsnight when. 平静些,亲爱的,和我一起在B《新闻之夜》(Newsnight)中接受采访的女士开导我。A day after the US election I dialled the vehemence up to 11. 那是在美国大选的次日,我情绪激昂。I paid her no heed.我没有听她的建议。Calming down is always the medicine prescribed to the losers by the winners lest their self-congratulation be inconvenienced by opposition. 平静下来一直是赢家开给输家的处方,以免自己的沾沾自喜被反对者搅乱。But bowing to the judgment of the polls does not entail a suspension of dissent, especially, when, as in this case, the election involves shameless suppression of votes, the politicisation of the FBI and the cyber-interference of the Russians. 但是从投票结果并不意味着压制异见,特别是像这次,选举涉及无耻的抑制选票、美国联邦调查局(FBI)政治化以及俄罗斯网络干预。If cherishing democracy mandates acceptance of the poll, it also presupposes the right to opposition. 如果说珍惜民主体制意味着接受投票结果,那么这一点也预设了反对的权利。And when that opposition is demonised as disloyal it needs to raise its voice.而当反对方被妖魔化为不忠时,它需要更大声地发表意见。There is, after all, much to get noisy about. 毕竟,当今有很多值得争辩的地方。Weirdly, the American public that has awarded the outgoing president a popularity rating of 56 per cent has also elected someone who intends to delete the entirety of the Obama presidency. 吊诡的是,美国民众赋予了即将离任的总统56%的持率,却选出了一位打算删掉奥巴马总统任期全部政治遗产的人。Now that Republicans control the White House and both houses of Congress, Mr Trump will have a free hand to repeal the Affordable Care Act (depriving millions of Americans of insurance), 由于共和党控制了白宫和参众两院,特朗普将可以放手废除《平价医疗法》(Affordable Care Act)(剥夺成百上千万美国人的医保)、fashion a Supreme Court to overthrow the Roe v Wade ruling on abortion, repudiate the Paris climate change accord, abandon the Iran nuclear agreement and get rid of the Dodd-Frank bank regulation designed to prevent a repeat of the conduct that brought on the Great Recession.改组最高法院(Supreme Court)以推翻罗伊诉韦德案(Roe v. Wade)中对堕胎合法化的裁决、退出巴黎气候变化协定、抛弃伊朗核协议、并且废止旨在防止大衰退重演的监管规则——《多德-弗兰克法》(Dodd-Frank Act)。It is said that Mr Trump’s slash-and-burn instincts will be moderated by experienced counsellors — they won’t. 有人说,特朗普的任性本能将被经验丰富的顾问们调和——这不可能。He did it His Way and the doubters and fence-sitters will all be replaced by dependable sycophants. 特朗普靠着我行我素入主白宫,怀疑者和观望者将被可信赖的奉承者取代。Knowing that his appeal to the voters was all about big-boy attitude, Mr Trump will make this a presidency of I Alone Can Fix It.知道了他对选民的吸引力就在于老大态度后,特朗普将使只有我自己可以搞定成为他的总统任期的标志。Doubtless the speechwriters are even now penning an inaugural address featuring the usual bromides about overcoming division. 毫无疑问,演讲稿撰写人现在就在撰写一份克分歧之类的就职演说。Coming from someone who knows perfectly well that the way he separated himself from the pack was to throw the red meat of abuse to the crowd, turning Hillary Clinton into a felon, this will be a bad joke. 这样的套话出自一个深知让自己脱颖而出的手段就是把辱骂的红肉扔给众人,把希拉里#8226;克林顿(Hillary Clinton)说成重罪犯的人,简直是一个蹩脚的笑话。The lingering effects of his malignant, incendiary rhetoric will not be dispelled by a sudden show of Kumbaya. 特朗普恶毒、煽动性言论的遗留影响,不会因其突然演唱《康巴亚》(Kumbaya,美国的传统宗教歌曲——译者注)而消除。They will hang in the political climate like toxic fog, not least because he knows that should he fail to deliver on his countless undeliverable promises, he can always fire up the zealots with another round of scapegoating against the usual suspects: the international conspiracy of banks and media and the city elites accused of talking down to regular folk and sneering at the American dream.它们将像毒雾一样漂浮在政治气氛中,特别是因为他知道,一旦他作出的无数没法兑现的承诺落空了,他总可以再迁怒于通常的嫌疑人——和媒体的国际阴谋,以及被指责贬低普通民众并嘲讽美国梦的城市精英,从而煽动狂热者。These have been the bugbears of American nativist populism for almost as long as there has been an America. 差不多自美国诞生以来,这些一直是美国本土民粹主义的妖怪。One of the great paradoxes of American nationality is that it has been built simultaneously around both the embrace and the rejection of immigrant identity. 美国人身份认同的一大矛盾是,它同时围绕接受和反对移民身份而建立。To a degree inconceivable anywhere else, American patriotism was indifferent to origins (though not, of course, to race). 在某种程度上对其他地方不可思议的是,美国的爱国主义不在乎原籍(尽管不能说不在乎种族)。But the very success of the immigrant republic also generated spasms of violent nativism. 但是这个移民共和国的成功本身也催生了一波波的暴力本土主义。In the 1850s, the targets were Irish and Italian Catholics; in the 1880s, the Chinese; in the 1900s, Jews from eastern Europe.19世纪50年代,本土主义的目标是爱尔兰和意大利天主教徒;19世纪80年代,目标是华人;到了20世纪头十年,目标又成了来自东欧的犹太人。Mr Trump’s populism is just the latest edition of this sweaty agitation. 特朗普的民粹主义只是这种亢奋鼓动的最新版本。Unlike the tin ear of the Clinton campaign, he has had perfect pitch, channelling the rage of the left behind and the nostalgic yearning to get back an unsullied homeland as imaginary as the village-green idyll of the British Brexiters.和不接地气的希拉里竞选团队不同,他祭出了完美的竞选说辞,引导被遗忘之人的愤怒,以及选民对于恢复纯净国土的怀旧渴望,尽管这样的愿景就像英国退欧派吹嘘的充满诗情画意的绿色田园景象一样,纯属臆想。Such feverish dreams of purification and restoration are the contagion of our times. 此类对纯净化和恢复的狂热梦想成了我们时代的瘟疫。Two unrelated phenomena — a socially unequal recovery from recession and the wash of desperate migrations across the world — have been connected, the latter made to explain the former. 两个毫不相关的现象——从衰退复苏过程中的社会不平等、以及绝望的移民涌向世界各地——被联系在一起,后者被用来解释前者。The blame for the contraction of low-skill jobs is laid at the door of wily foreigners and low-wage labour. 低技能工作岗位减少的罪魁祸首,成了狡猾的外国人和低收入劳工。The fuse of resentment, lit by the demagogue, blooms into poisonous flame.煽动者点燃的愤怒的导火索,演变成了有毒的火焰。The manner of Mr Trump’s victory will persuade other nativists and crypto-fascists that success in their own elections next year will best be served by ramping up the paranoia. 特朗普胜利的方式将说其他本土主义者和隐藏的法西斯主义者相信,要在明年的选举中获胜,他们最好升高偏执言论的分贝。Internationalism and cosmopolitanism will be represented as the realm of the devilish establishment. 国际主义和世界主义将被描述成邪恶体制的一部分。The walls of protection and the watchtowers of the security state will rise over the citadel nation. 保护的高墙和警察国家的城楼将在城堡之国建起。Freedom will be sacrificed to safety.自由将沦为安全的牺牲品。All this will assuredly come to pass, unless heterogeneous city culture — with all its disorderly creativity, its flowing tides of newcomers and outgoers — finds unapologetic champions. 这一切必定会成为现实——除非多姿多的城市文化(伴随所有无序的创造力、源源不断的新移民和离开者)找到坚定的倡导者。It was the fatal error of the Clinton campaign to suppose that an arid of policy proposals was the same thing as a full-throated defence of modernity.希拉里阵营的致命错误是以为一份干巴巴的政策提议等同于为现代社会有力辩护。Whatever rises from the rubble of liberalism’s debacle must never repeat that mistake. 无论从自由主义惨败的废墟中诞生出什么,都必须确保永远不重复这一错误。The decencies of modern life need to be argued with militant passion and broadcast to places where it can be heard by people who don’t broadsheets. 现代生活的体面需要用激昂的热情来捍卫,并且传播到不读大报的人也能听到的角落。What neither America nor the rest of world can afford right now is to keep calm and carry on.眼下,无论美国还是世界其他地方都承担不起的就是保持冷静和继续前进。 /201611/479508。