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2019年05月20日 01:26:07 | 作者:飞管家养生问答 | 来源:新华社
The US and much of the world have been rudely awakened to the fact that the group formerly known as Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant is both a dangerous terrorist organisation, and considerably more than that. The deadly reality of its capabilities and ambitions is captured in the latest title by which Isis styles itself: the Islamic State. It is a de facto government with evolving borders that seeks to impose its vision of society on the millions of people over whom it rules. And, as it has dramatically shown since the capture of the Iraqi city of Mosul in June, it seeks to expand its borders and the numbers subject to its control.美国和世界大部分地区被这样一个事实粗暴地唤醒:原先被称为“伊拉克与黎凡特伊斯兰国”(Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant,简称Isis)的组织,远不止是一个危险的恐怖主义组织;它的致命实力和野心,反映在它给自己的最新封号上:伊斯兰Islamic State)。这是个事实上的政府,有着仍在变化的边界线,谋求将自己的社会愿景强加于自己统治的数百万号民众头上。此外,这个组织还谋求扩张自己的边界,扩大自己控制的民众数量。自6月攻占伊拉克苏尔以来,这一意图已表露无遗。The biggest question now facing western states is what to do about Syria. Iraq’s neighbour is where Isis established itself and from where it directs its operations. The fact is that the world cannot defeat Isis in Iraq, or limit its potential elsewhere, if it continues to enjoy sanctuary in Syria. Yet this is a country whose president, Bashar al-Assad, stands accused by the west of war crimes as part of an onslaught against his own citizens that has fuelled a conflict costing almost 200,000 lives.西方国家眼下面临的最大问题在于,该如何对待伊拉克的邻国叙利亚。Isis就是在叙利亚站稳脚跟的,至今仍从叙利亚指挥各项行动。事实是,如果Isis继续在叙利亚拥有根据地,世界就无法在伊拉克击败Isis,也无法在别的地方遏制它的潜在危害。然而,为难的是,西方谴责叙利亚总统巴沙#8226;阿萨Bashar al-Assad)在一场针对本国人民的战争中犯下战争罪,对一场导致近20万人死亡的冲突负有责任。The first thing that needs to be done, despite White House reluctance, is to make good on what General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, suggested last week. The US should attack Isis targets across the border from Iraq inside Syria. More could and should be done, too, to slow the flow of recruits, arms and dollars.当务之急是(尽管白宫不情愿这样做)尽快落实美国参谋长联席会议主席马#8226;邓普Martin Dempsey)上将上周的提议:美国应跨过伊拉克边境,打击叙利亚境内的Isis目标。我们还应该、也有能力加大努力,减慢Isis招募成员以及筹措武器和资金的速度。Yet even with support from US special forces, Kurdish peshmerga, Sunni tribesmen and Iraqi ground troops operating at home together with attempts to close borders and banks there are limits to what air power can achieve. What is needed are ground forces operating inside Syria. This is where things get complicated. Very complicated.然而,即便有美军特种部队、库尔德“自由斗士”、逊尼派部落以及本土作战的伊拉克地面部队的持,并采取措施尝试关闭边境和,空中打击的效果仍将是有限的。我们需要的是在叙利亚境内作战的地面部队。谈到这一点,事情就变得非常复杂了。In principle there are four options. The US and European governments could provide ground forces. But, with widesp hostility to renewed military involvement following wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, this is a political non-starter. An expeditionary force would be an undertaking of enormous cost and risk, with no prospect of speedy success and likely to yield at best only limited progress. Given public attitudes, it is not going to happen.基本上,我们种选择。美国和欧洲政府可以出动地面部队。但考虑到伊拉克和阿富汗战争后普遍的反战情绪,这在政治上是不可能实现的。出动远征军成本高昂、风险巨大,也不可能迅速取得胜利,至多只会取得有限的进展。考虑到民意,这是一种不可能的选择。A second option would be to create a pan-Arab expeditionary force, one with units from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the ed Arab Emirates and possibly Egypt. Organising and deploying such a force would be extremely difficult. It might also trigger intervention from other outsiders with a stake in Syria’s future, including Iran. If this were to happen, what is aly a bad situation could become worse.第二个选择是,由约旦、沙特、阿联酋、或许还有埃及,共同出兵组建一泛阿拉伯远征军。这样一军队的组织和部署将异常困难,或许还会引发其他与叙利亚未来利益相关的外部力量的干预,其中包括伊朗。若如此,已经很糟的情况可能变得更糟。The third option is to create an internal Syrian opposition, building on elements that aly exist. But this, too, would take a good deal of time, and it would be a tall order for any such force to contend successfully with both the Syrian government and Isis.第三个选择是以现有力量为基础,组建一叙利亚内部的反政府武装。但这需要花费很长时间,而且指望这样一部队能同时击败叙利亚政府和Isis是不现实的。The fourth option is to turn to the regime of Mr Assad to take the lead in defeating Isis. This would mean accepting for the foreseeable future a regime that has committed war crimes; that is supported by Iran and Russia, with which the west has considerable strategic differences; and that is opposed by countries, including Saudi Arabia, with which the US has more often than not co-operated.第四个选择是,转向阿萨德政权,让其领导对Isis的打击。这意味着在可预见的未来接受一个犯有战争罪的政权;一个得到与西方存在显著战略分歧的伊朗和俄罗斯持的政权;一个经常与美国合作的国家(包括沙特)反对的政权。Such a policy change would be costly but not as costly as a scenario in which Isis could use Syrian territory from which to mount attacks on the region and beyond. The Assad government may be evil but it is a lesser evil than Isis, and a local one. Such an accommodation would require a great deal of diplomacy if it were to succeed. Understandings would have to be reached with Damascus, with the mostly secular opposition, much depleted by three years of brutal battles against Isis and the regime; and with outside backers (mainly Iran and Saudi Arabia) about how Syria was to be run, both now and in the future, and what would happen in liberated areas.这样的政策转向代价高昂,但假如Isis以叙利亚为根据地,对中东乃至世界其他地区发动攻击,我们将付出更为高昂的代价。阿萨德政府或许邪恶,但没有Isis邪恶,而且只局限于本土。这种安排要想取得成功,需要做大量外交工作。我们必须就叙利亚现在和未来的治理方式、以及如何对待已经被反对派解放的地区,与大马士革方面、基本上世俗的反对派(与Isis和阿萨德政权的三年残酷斗争已使其被削弱)以及双方的外部持者(主要是伊朗和沙特)达成谅解。As is often the case, the more attractive options may not be feasible, while the option that could prove feasible would present distinct difficulties. The calculus argues for determining whether creating a pan-Arab force or developing a viable internal opposition are possible in the near future; if not, the US and Europe may have to live with, and even work with, a regime they have for years sought to remove. What is certain is that it should be a priority to convene a meeting of all the relevant governments which, if initial discussions with other countries show promise, should include the Assad regime to determine whether a common policy towards Syria and Isis can be forged.就像经常发生的情况一样,更诱人的选择或许不可行,而可能可行的选择面临明显的困难。从逻辑上说,应当确定在较近的未来是否有可能组建一泛阿拉伯部队,或扶植一有望成功的内部反对力量;如果不可能,那么美国和欧洲或许就必须容忍一个自己多年来寻求推翻的政权继续存在,甚至与这个政权合作。有一点是肯定的,那就是当务之急是召集所有相关政府开会,确定能否制定一套针对叙利亚和Isis的共同政策;如果与其他国家的初步讨论有眉目,那么也应邀请阿萨德政权参与讨论。来 /201409/325359The US Navy this week finally made good on its promise to challenge Beijing’s territorial claims in the South China Sea. By sending an American warship within 12 miles of an artificial island that China has constructed, Washington underscored that it does not recognise Chinese claims to territorial waters lying thousands of miles from its mainland. Beijing’s reaction to the voyage of the USS Lassen was shrill accusing the US of acting illegally and urging it to refrain from further “dangerousand “provocativeactions.美国海军本周终于兑现了其挑战中国在南中国海领土主张的诺言。通过派遣一艘军舰驶入中国建造的一个人工岛12海里范围内,美国明确表明了自己不承认中国对距中国大陆数千英里以外的水域的主权声索。中国对美国海军“拉森”号驱逐舰(USS Lassen)此次航行行动反应强烈——谴责美方此举为非法,敦促其不得采取进一步的“危险、挑衅”行为。Any hint of military conflict between the two largest economies in the world, both of them nuclear-armed, needs to be taken seriously. Both sides have a responsibility to proceed with appropriate caution. But it is the US that seems to have international law and precedent on its side, in challenging the idea that the construction of artificial islands can create new territorial waters. By contrast, as it pushes its claims in the South China Sea through an island-building programme, rather than through the international legal system, Beijing is in danger of making a strategic mistake that could disrupt the peaceful trading environment that has been so crucial to its own rise.美国和中国是全球最大的两个经济体,都拥有核武器,任何暗示这两国可能爆发军事冲突的蛛丝马迹都需要认真对待。中美双方都有责任适度谨慎前行。但在挑战建造人工岛能创造新领海这一看法方面,国际法和先例似乎站在美国这边。相比之下,随着中国通过造岛计划(而非通过国际法律体系)推动其在南中国海的领土主张,北京方面可能会犯下战略失误,可能会破坏一直以来对其自身崛起至关重要的和平贸易环境。True, some of America’s allies are worried that Washington is being needlessly provocative. One argument is that there is no evidence that China intends to use its maritime claims to disrupt freedom of navigation in the Pacific. Another is that, as an emerging superpower, China will naturally seek to establish a zone of influence in its immediate neighbourhood and that resistance is pointless and dangerous.确实,美国的一些盟友担心,美国做出的挑衅举动是没有必要的。一种观点是,没有据明中国打算利用其海上领土主张破坏太平洋的航行自由。另一种观点认为,作为一个新兴超级大国,中国自然会寻求在其临近地区建立势力范围,抵制是没有意义和危险的。Washington is nevertheless right to reject the notion of a Chinese “sphere of influencethat would allow Beijing to assert territorial or maritime claims that are rejected by its neighbours and that would probably not withstand the test of international law. If China were to get its way, it would set a dangerous precedent with global implications particularly in the aftermath of Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea.然而,美国对中国“势力范围”概念的反对是正确的:这个“势力范围”将令中国能够维护遭其邻国反对的领土或海上主张,而且中国的做法很可能经受不住国际法的考验。如果中国得手,会开创一个有全球性影响的危险先例,尤其会对俄罗斯非法吞并克里米亚的后果产生影响。Beijing, for its part, is in danger of pursuing a policy driven by national prestige but with little underlying strategic logic. As the world’s largest exporter of manufactured goods and its largest importer of oil, China has some reason to worry about the security of the sea lanes that supply its economy. But even if it could turn the whole of the South China Sea into a Chinese lake, Beijing would not secure the sea passages that fuel its economy since these stretch all the way to the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf.就中国本身而言,它有奉行一种受国家面子驱动、但缺乏战略逻辑作撑的政策的风险。作为全球最大制成品出口国和最大石油进口国,中国有理由担心为其经济带来供给的海上航道的安全。然而,即便中国能将整个南中国海变为中国的一个湖,它也无法确保为其经济提供物资的各条海上通道的安全,因为这些通道一直通向印度洋和波斯湾。Pouring money into the Chinese navy and into new missiles that potentially threaten the aircraft carriers that are the basis of American power in the Pacific could spark needless antagonism with the US. But it would not do much to solve China’s underlying security dilemma.航空母舰是美国在太平洋实力的基础,中国向海军和可能威胁航空母舰的新导弹投入资金,可能会引发美国不必要的对抗。但这对解决中国的潜在安全难题作用不大。The wiser course for China would be to stick to an alternative formula that has worked well for it over the past 40 years. It should rely on the mutual interests created by globalisation as the best guarantee that all sides will work to preserve freedom of navigation. China’s efforts to develop a new Silk Road across central Asia towards Europe and the Middle East will also provide an alternative to an over-reliance on vulnerable sea lanes.对中国而言更明智的做法应该是,坚持一种在过去40年一直行之有效的替代政策。中国应依靠全球化带来的共同利益,作为各方将努力维护航行自由的最佳保障。中国在中亚地区开发一条新的通向欧洲和中东的“丝绸之路”的努力,也会为过度依赖脆弱的海上航线提供替代选择。It was always likely that the rise of China would provoke tensions with the ed States, the world’s dominant power. The US Navy’s South China Sea mission is an important new test in the relationship. Both sides must now make an effort to defuse tensions. A deterioration in relations between the world’s two largest economies would serve no one’s interests.中国的崛起总是有可能引发它与全球霸主美国的紧张关系。美国海军在南中国海的行动是对两国关系提出的新重要考验。双方现在都必须努力缓解紧张关系。全球最大的两个经济体之间关系恶化,对任何人都没有好处。来 /201511/407146The top Republican lawmaker on trade has called for US president Barack Obama to work even harder to build support among Democrats for a crucial trade bill on the eve of what are expected to be divisive votes in Congress.分管贸易政策的共和党头号人物呼吁美国总统巴拉#8226;奥巴Barack Obama)加倍努力,争取更多民主党议员持一项关键贸易法案。预计美国国会即将举行的投票将出现势不两立的局面。“We’ve still got a lot of raindrops to run through here without getting splashed,Senator Orrin Hatch, chairman of the powerful Senate finance committee, told the Financial Times.“我们还需要跑过很多雨滴并保不被雨水溅着,”掌握实权的参议院财政委员会(Senate Finance Committee)的主席奥#8226;哈奇(Orrin Hatch)对英囀?金融时报》表示。The Utah Republican is one of the sponsors of a bill unveiled last month that would grant Mr Obama the “fast-trackauthority he needs to wrap up the Trans-Pacific Partnership with Japan and 10 other Pacific Rim economies.这名犹他州共和党参议员上月与人联合发起一项法案,该法案将授予奥巴马“快车道”权限,使其能够与日本和另外10个太平洋周边经济体达成《跨太平洋伙伴关系》(Trans-Pacific Partnership,简称TPP)。If successfully concluded, the TPP, which covers 40 per cent of the global economy, would be the biggest trade deal sealed in the world in two decades.覆盖全球经济40%的TPP若成功达成,将是20年来世界达成的最大贸易协定。The bill to grant the president what is formally known as “trade promotion authorityis expected to come to a Senate vote as soon as this week and to be presented in the lower House of Representatives before the end of May.授予总统“贸易促进权”的法案,预计最早将在本周提交参议院表决,并月底之前提交众议院。It faces stiff opposition from many Democrats who are coming under intense pressure from labour unions to resist Mr Obama’s trade agenda. But Republicans, who control both houses of Congress, insist they need Democratic support to offset defections by some Tea Party Republicans opposed to giving the president anything at all.该法案面临着许多民主党人的强烈反对,他们承受着来自工会的强大压力,要求其抵制奥巴马的贸易议程。但是,控制着国会两院的共和党方面坚称,他们需要民主党议员的持,才能抵消某些茶党派系共和党人的叛变,这些人反对在任何事项上配合奥巴马。Mr Hatch said he and fellow Republican Paul Ryan, chairman of the House ways and means committee, were having some success convincing some Tea Party Republicans. He also praised Mr Obama for taking on his critics in the Democratic party more forcefully in recent weeks.哈奇表示,他和同为共和党人的众议院筹款委员会(House Ways and Means Committee)主席保罗#8226;瑞安(Paul Ryan)在说某些茶党派系共和党议员方面取得了一些进展。他还称赞奥巴马在最近几周更有力地回应党内的批评者。But the president and his Republican allies on the issue still faced a tough fight, Mr Hatch said.但哈奇表示,总统和他的共和党盟友仍然面临一场艰苦的较量。“This is one thing where the president is right and you would think Democrats would help him to have this big victory,the senator said. “It would be the most important victory for the president in his whole eight years.”“这是总统做得对的一件事,你会认为民主党议员会帮助他取得这个大胜利,”这名共和党参议员表示。“这将是他在整整八年总统任期中最重要的胜利。”Democratic opponents “are going to throw bombs in the Senate when we bring it up he said. “[The president has] got to work to get more Democrats on board.”“当我们拿出这项法案时,(民主党对手)将在参议院里扔炸弹,”他表示。“(总统)必须花点功夫,争取更多民主党人持该法案。”Fast-track authority commits Congress to holding simple up-or-down votes on trade agreements rather than seeking to renegotiate them via amendments. It has been held out as a precondition by Japan, New Zealand and other TPP countries to concluding the deal.“快车道”授权要求美国国会就贸易协定举行简单的批准或是否决投票,而不是寻求通过修改来重启谈判。它已被日本、新西兰等国家列为完成TPP谈判的先决条件。The Obama administration wants to wrap up the TPP negotiations before the summer and bring the 12-country agreement itself back to Congress for ratification before the end of the year and the ramping up of 2016 presidential election politics. Mr Obama has been lobbying Democrats more heavily in recent weeks, in public and private. On Thursday he met with almost 30 pro-business Democrats from the House for what one representative called an “advanced graduate student seminar on trade and the politics of trade奥巴马政府希望在夏天之前完成TPP谈判,并在今年底之前(以016年总统大选的政治角力升温之前)将这份12国之间的贸易协定本身提交国会批准。奥巴马最近几周在公开和私下场合都加大了游说民主党人的力度。上周四,他和近30名亲商的民主党众议员汇聚一堂,举行了其中一名众议员所称的“有关贸易和贸易政治的高年级研究生研讨会”。At best, however, there are only 50 to 60 Democrats in the 435-member House who might support granting the president fast-track authority, said Gerry Connolly, a Virginia Democrat.不过,弗吉尼亚州民主党众议员格里#8226;康诺Gerry Connolly)表示,在最好的情况下,435个席位的众议院里也只会有500名民主党众议员可能持给予总统快车道授权。来 /201505/373174

Last month, reports that the Chinese government would reform state-owned enterprises gave shares of listed SOEs a big one-day boost. Over the weekend, guidelines for the reforms were released and, yesterday, stocks fell and rightly so.上月,有关中国政府将改革国有企业的报道曾使上市国企的股价当日大幅上涨。在刚刚过去的周末,《关于深化国有企业改革的指导意见》正式发布,周一中国股市下跌——而且跌得有道理。The impact of substantive reform would be huge. SOEs account for two-fifths of GDP, according to Goldman Sachs, and they employ one-tenth of China’s workforce. Neither capital nor workers are particularly productive, though. Reliant on state support and artificially cheap capital, SOEs tend to have far lower returns on equity than private enterprises. SOEs (excluding banks) have delivered virtually no earnings growth over the past five years, Macquarie points out. Over the same period the private sector profit growth was in the double digits.实质性改革的影响将是巨大的。根据高Goldman Sachs)的数据,国有企业占中国国内生产总GDP)的五分之二,雇用中国十分之一的劳动力。不过,无论是资本或是工人的生产率都不是特别高。依赖国家持和人为廉价资本的国企,股本回报率往往比民营企业低得多。麦格理(Macquarie)指出,剔除后,国有企业在过去5年里几乎毫无盈利增长。同期民营部门的利润增长达到两位数。Reform will not be easy to achieve. Vested interests are hard to unseat and allowing large employers to go under, or even deliver big cost savings, is politically difficult. Details of the new proposals are scant. Share sales will be encouraged, but the SOEs that trade aly prove that a public listing hardly guarantees productivity.改革将是不容易实现的。既得利益者难以请走,让大型雇主倒闭(甚至只是实现大幅成本节省)的政治难度很大。新的改革方案细节较少。发售股票将得到鼓励,但已经上市的国企明,上市并不能保提高生产率。This is not the first time SOE reform has been on the agenda, and efforts to date have hardly been radical. Last year, state refiner Sinopec sold a stake in its retail arm to domestic private investors. This year, China’s two big railway equipment manufacturers, Hong Kong and mainland-listed CSR Corp and China CNR, merged to become CRRC. The impact of these steps has so far been limited. Asset reshuffling has yet to render significant improvements in performance or meaningful capacity shrinkage.这不是国企改革第一次被提上日程,迄今的力度很难说是到位的。去年,国有炼油企业中石Sinopec)向国内私人投资者出售了零售部门的一部分股份。今年,中国的两大铁路设备制造商、在香港和内地上市的中国北车(CNR)和中国南CSR)合并成为中国中车(CRRC)。这些步骤的影响迄今有限。资产重组尚未带来显著的绩效提高或是有意义的产能缩减。What would real reform look like? Allowing SOEs to go bust or at least shut unproductive businesses outright would be a start. So would changes in the lending policies of the state-owned banks, which put private enterprise and SOEs on equal footing. Short of substantive steps such as these, talk of reform is that and nothing more.真正的改革会是什么样的?允许国企破产(或至少是关闭绩效不佳的业务部门)将是一个开始。改变国有的放贷政策、对民营企业与国有企业一视同仁,也将是真正的改革。若没有这样的实质性步骤,有关改革的言论就将仅仅是言论而已 /201509/398824

Last week, financial markets began to take seriously the possibility that Scotland might vote Yes to independence. A constitutional change would raise the possibility of three types of market risk: currency risk, government credit risk and the credit risk associated with financial institutions.上周,金融市场开始认真考虑苏格兰公投结果持独立的可能性。苏格兰身份的改变可能导致三类市场风险:货币风险,政府信用风险,与金融机构有关的信用风险。The position on currency is today a stand-off. The Scottish government has said it will negotiate a currency union and the Westminster government has said it will not enter such negotiation. But Edinburgh cannot unilaterally establish a currency union and the Westminster government cannot unilaterally determine Scotland’s currency. Plainly there must be agreement. However, might this agreement leave people who had made deposits or loans in sterling at risk of being repaid in Scots bawbees of doubtful value?货币问题目前陷入了僵局。苏格兰政府已表示,将通过谈判与英国其余地区建立货币联盟,而英国政府已放话将不会参加这样的谈判。但苏格兰政府无法单方面建立货币联盟,英国政府也无法单方面决定苏格兰采用何种货币。显然双方必须达成协议。然而,这份协议有没有可能会让以英镑存款或放贷的人面临这样的风险:交出去的是英镑,收回来的却是大把大把价值有疑问的苏格兰半便bawbee)?As the eurozone discovered, establishing a currency union is easy, operating one is hard and unwinding one is hard. You can pass legislation saying all contracts made in drachmas are now payable in euros; but legislation saying contracts made in euros are now payable in drachmas is another matter. To which contracts does the latter apply? However the question is resolved, the answer will hurt many businesses and individuals, and occupy the courts.如欧元区所发现的那样,货币联盟是建立起来容易,管理和解散难。你可以立法,宣布所有以德拉克马(drachma,希腊在加入欧元区之前使用的货币——译者注)为货币单位订立的合同如今可用欧元付;但立法宣布以欧元订立的合同现在可用德拉克马付就是另一回事了。后一种安排适用于哪些合同?无论这个问题得出何种,都将伤及不少企业和个人的利益,并导致大量法律诉讼。But there is a simple answer in the Scottish case, which is that whatever happens after a new currency is adopted, existing contracts in sterling remain in sterling. This means there is no currency risk ahead of a change. The same answer is not possible for Greece because the point of a Grexit would be to enable the country to default on its debts and effect a large devaluation, a course unnecessary and unwise for Scotland.但就苏格兰的情况而言,有一个简单的,那就是无论采用新货币后发生什么,既有的以英镑订立的合同仍将以英镑结算。这意味着,在苏格兰变更身份前不会存在货币风险。同样的不可能适用于希腊,原因是希腊退出欧元区的意义,就在于能对其债务违约和使其货币大幅贬值,这种做法对苏格兰而言则既无必要也不明智。British government stocks tumbled last week when opinion polls showed the campaigns neck and neck perhaps because markets did not know what to make of the news, perhaps because of the Scottish government’s threat to renege on its share of UK debt. But, even if the Scots did so, this would add less than 10 per cent to the debt servicing cost of the rest of the UK which, at about 2.5 per cent of gross domestic product, is hardly unaffordable.上周民调显示,苏格兰持和不持独立的人数旗鼓相当,英国国债随之暴跌。这或许是因为市场不知如何理解这个消息,原因或许是苏格兰政府威胁不偿还自己承担的那份英国国债。但即便苏格兰人真的这样干了,也只不过会让英国其余地区的偿债成本增加不0%——相当于国内生产总GDP)的约2.5%——这并不是无法负担的。There is little justification for believing a Scottish exit, on whatever terms, should affect the credit rating of the remaining UK: what repudiation would do to Scotland’s credit rating is a different matter. It is one thing to start life as a new country debt free, another to do so because you have just reneged on a pro rata share of UK debt of #163;100bn.我们几乎找不到什么理由认为,苏格兰独立(无论以何种条件独立)会影响英国其余地区的信用评级;至于赖债会对苏格兰的信用评级造成何种影响,那就是另一回事了。作为一个新国家,以无债务负担的状态开始新生活是一回事,靠拒不偿还按比例应承担000亿英镑英国国债而达到这种状态,则是另一回事。The third risk associated with independence is a change in the credit risk attached to financial institutions. Banks and other companies can operate in the EU through branches of their home business, or by establishing local subsidiaries in other member states. Sweden’s Handelsbanken uses branches; the Spanish Santander takes deposits in Scotland into its English subsidiary. If a bank fails, the saver has a claim on the appropriate deposit protection scheme that of the country in which the regulated entity is located. As in Santander’s case, that might be neither the country where you made the deposit nor the one where the bank’s head office is located.伴随独立出现的第三类风险是,金融机构相关信用风险的改变。和其他企业可通过开设隶属于母国业务的分机构、或通过在欧EU)其他成员国设立当地子公司,来在欧盟市场运营。瑞典Handelsbanken采用的是开设分行的办法;西班牙桑坦德银Santander)则是将其在苏格兰吸收的存款转至在英格兰的子公司。如果倒闭,储户就对相应的存款保险机制——受监管实体所在国家的存款保险机制——拥有求偿权。就桑坦德的例子而言,这个“国家”可能既不是储户存款时所在的国家,也不是该行总部所在的国家。The “lender of last resortfacility provides liquidity support if there is a run on a bank. Last week’s interrogation of Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, at Westminster’s Treasury select committee confused that issue with a quite separate one: the reserves needed to sustain a currency peg; and the resources needed to provide liquidity support to the banking system. The scale of modern speculative capital flows is such that there is probably no currency reserve large enough to sustain the price of a clearly overvalued currency. Meanwhile, the availability of liquidity support to solvent institutions depends not on the reserves available but on the credit rating of the provider of such support whether another bank, a government or a central bank.“最后贷款人”安排会在遭遇挤兑时提供流动性持。上周英国央BoE)行长马克#8226;卡尼(Mark Carney)在英国议会下院财政特别委员会(Treasury select committee)接受质询时,混淆了两个截然不同的问题:维持货币挂钩所需的外汇储备;向业体系提供流动性持所需的资源。当代投机资金流的规模极其庞大,可能没有任何一个国家的外汇储备大到足以维持一种明显被高估的货币的币值。另一方面,能否向有偿付能力的金融机构提供流动性持并非取决于有多少外汇储备,而是取决于提供者(无论是另一家,还是政府或央行)的信用评级。But since the global financial crisis the term “lender of last resorthas routinely been used in wider and ill defined sense: to identify who (if anyone) will make whole the creditors of any failed financial institution or recapitalise any bank, wherever based, no longer able to raise equity from its shareholders. The only sensible answer for Scotland and perhaps for other countries is “not us但自全球金融危机爆发以来,“最后贷款人”这个词常常应用在更广的范围内,定义也往往比较模糊:可指替任何倒闭的金融机构向债主偿债的人,或向任何无法再从股东那里筹集股本的(无论其总部位于何处)注资的人——假如存在这样的人的话。唯一明智的回答是,这个词指的“不是我们”——对苏格兰而言是如此,或许对其他国家而言也是如此。The present debate is demeaned by posturing and scaremongering on both sides. Scotland has prospered as part of a ed Kingdom and could prosper as an independent country. Which course is more appropriate is a question of identity and values, not economics. And whatever outcome is declared on Friday morning, sensible people will work together to ensure that outcome produces the best possible economic result.当前的辩论已沦为辩论双方摆姿态和危言耸听的游戏。苏格兰作为英国的一部分实现了繁荣,作为一个独立国家也可实现繁荣。选择哪条道路更合适,是一个身份认同和价值观问题,而非经济问题。而且,无论周五早上宣布的公投结果如何,明智之士都会共同努力,确保这一结果能产生尽可能好的经济结果。来 /201409/329422

Cynthia Breazeal has never considered herself a woman entrepreneur. An entrepreneur? Yes. A leader? Certainly. But gender really has never come into play as she expanded her company Jibo, the maker of the world’s first family robot.辛西娅o布雷西亚从来不认为自己是女创业家。创业家?是的。领导者?当然。但她在带领公司Jibo蓬勃发展的时候,从来没有受到性别问题的影响。Jibo是世界第一款家用机器人的制造商。Still, today is Women’s Entrepreneur Day, a global movement to celebrate and support female founders and shed light on some of their challenges. So Fortune interviewed Breazeal, as well as Susan Coelius Keplinger, the co-founder of online ad platform Triggit, about their experiences building their respective companies from scratch. Both women are part of Fortune’s 2014 class of Most Promising Entrepreneurs.今天是女性创业日,作为一项全球性活动,“女性创业日”的目的是鼓励和持女性创业者,了解她们遇到的挑战。因此,《财富》杂志(Fortune)采访了布雷西亚和在线广告平台Triggit的联合创始人克利乌斯o凯普林格,了解她们白手起家进行创业的经历。两人均被评为《财富014年“最有前途的创业家”(Most Promising Entrepreneurs)。“The world would certainly be a better place if we had more women entrepreneurs,said Breazeal. “Women are going to bring a different angle to startups. The stereotype is that it is all young geeky guys and that is not true. It is critical for women to become entrepreneurs because of their unique perspective.”布雷西亚说道:“如果有更多女性投身创业,我们的世界将变得更好。女性将从不同的角度来诠释创业。人们总是认为,进行创业的都是年轻的书呆子们,这是错误的。女性参与创业的关键就在于她们的独特视角。”Edited excerpts:以下是经过编辑的采访内容摘录:Fortune: Give me a little background on your company.《财富》:简单介绍一下你的公司吧。Susan Coelius Keplinger: We started the company in 2005, and we started doing similar things with ads that we are doing now. It didn’t make sense to us why an advertisement on Yahoo’s homepage would sell for hundreds of dollars, but an ad on a blog shown to the same person would be some for 40 cents. If it is really about the person and the audience, it shouldn’t matter what page that person it on. We are trying to build products and get access to an audience regardless of the site itself.苏珊o克利乌斯o凯普林格:我们在2005年成立了这家公司,最初的业务与现在类似,都与广告有关。当时我们不明白为什么雅虎(Yahoo)主页上的一则广告可以卖到数百美元,而出现在客上的广告却只0美分,即便可能是同样的人在看这些广告。如果说广告的关键是受众,那与受众浏览的页面又有什么关系?我们正努力开发一些产品,向受众展示广告,而不必考虑网站本身的差异。Cynthia Breazeal: Jibo is building the world’s first family robot. It’s like R2D2 and an iPad had a baby. It’s the world’s first social robot. I founded the company in 2012 and now is the time to bring it to the world.辛西娅o布雷西亚:Jibo正在生产全球第一款家用机器人。这款机器人是R2D2和iPad的结合体。这是全世界第一款社交机器人。我012年成立了这家公司,现在正在努力将它推向全世界。How would you describe the stage that your company is at right now?你如何描述公司目前所处的阶段?SK: It’s the rise of native advertising [advertorials, essentially], but less so from a deceptive standpoint. We have fallen into this really cool space. It used to be that people thought online advertising would never work because it wasn’t good for the user experience. Now we are evolving toward an experience where advertising doesn’t stand in opposition with the content. If the ads are good, you’ll engage with them.SK:目前公司处在原生广告[实质上是社论式广告]增长的阶段,但并非从欺骗性的角度。我们现在已经进入了这一很酷的阶段。以前人们认为在线广告不会成功,因为在线广告的用户体验较差。而现在我们正在开发一种全新的体验,使广告不会与内容冲突。只要是好广告,就一定能吸引受众。CB: Now we are going from the prototype to the actual manufacturer. Making that switch is the main focus right now, as well as finishing the software and getting the hardware manufactured. We are also looking to develop our developer community. We are busy. It is a lot of engineering, but we are cranking through it all.CB:现在我们正在从原型设计转向实际生产。这是我们目前的重中之重,其他工作还包括完成软件开发,进行硬件生产等。此外,我们计划培养自己的开发者社区。我们非常忙碌。有大量的工程设计工作要做,我们将全力以赴。What were some of your initial challenges raising your first round of funding?进行第一轮融资时遇到了哪些挑战?SK: As much as it wasn’t fun raising money in the middle of the recession, it is what enabled us to succeed. At the time there were not as many companies getting started. We raised million in angel funds that helped us create and find a business. We used that as largely innovation money, so when we went to VCs for our first funding round we were y to create a product and enter the market. It’s important to find people that want to invest in you and are willing to change our strategy a bunch and help you find a product that works. I think a lot of people write off that support. If you can find seed investors, angel investors who really believe you, there is not a better situation.SK:虽然在经济衰退的形势下进行融资并不轻松,但这却是我们成功的关键。当时创业公司没有现在那么多。我们从天使基金那里获得00万美元,这笔资金帮助我们创建了一家公司。我们将那笔投资大部分用作创新资金,所以,在首轮风投融资时,我们已经开发出一款产品,并准备将其推向市场。重要的是找到想要给你投资,并且愿意改变我们的策略并协助找到一款有效产品的人。找到愿意相信你的种子投资者,没有比这更美好的事情了。CB: The first round was a seed round. I was actually approached by a partner within a VC firm, and the partner felt that there was an opportunity around a new product category of robots in the home. We started talking because of my expertise in robotics, and I was at a point in my carer where I was interested in commercializing the work that I had done academically [Breazeal is an associate professor of media arts and sciences at MIT]. Things move really fast pace in the entrepreneur world and time is money. You are having to make the best decisions you can with incomplete information.CB:第一轮是种子投资。当时有一家风险投资公司的合伙人找到我,他认为一款新型家用机器人产品中蕴含着商机。因为我拥有机器人科学的专业知识,并且我当时也很有兴趣将学术上的成果商业化[布雷西亚是麻省理工学院(MIT)媒体艺术与科学副教授],因此我们开始交谈。在创业领域,形势瞬息万变,时间就是金钱。你必须在信息不全面的情况下,做出最好的决定。What are some of the biggest myths about being a ‘woman entrepreneur作为“女性创业家”,你遇到的最大的误解是什么?SK: There are plenty of stories, and I have been in plenty of situations when I was younger, where male investors wanted to sleep with me and they didn’t want to do business with me. Yes, there are some bad eggs out there that are men, but there are some women who are equally as snotty. Sexism exists, especially if you are young and good looking, but those are not the type of people you want to be around anyway. I don’t know how to make an asexual society. We are in a time right now when a huge set of swell is coming. There are a bunch of waves that are terrible that you don’t want to ride, but there are also a bunch of awesome waves that seem crazy but you be great if you got on top of them. If you go to raise money and you find a guy that is an ass, move on. You have to remember that even if you have a good idea, people could still say no 100 times.SK:我遭遇过的误解有很多。在我年轻的时候,经常遇到有些男性投资者只想跟我上床,而不是跟我做生意。没错,有些男人非常无耻,但也有一些女性令人厌恶。对女性的性别歧视确实存在,尤其是对年轻貌美的女性,但你肯定不想围着这类人转悠。我不知道如何实现一个无性别歧视的社会。如今,我们就像站在一波汹涌袭来的巨浪前面一样。有些海浪令人望而生畏,你不想卷入其中,而有一些海浪看起来很可怕,但如果你能乘风破浪站在浪尖,那将是很棒的感觉。如果你在融资的时候遇到一个卑鄙小人,这时你应该放下这件事,继续前进。你必须要记住,即便你有很好的想法,还是会不断遭到拒绝。CB: I think I am lucky because I am trying to do something that has never been done before, so the focus is on that and not me and my gender. My credibility is not in question here. So the focus is on where it needs to be which is what we are trying to do. I have always been on the forefront of innovation, so the attention has always been on the robots I built rather than on me. I think being an entrepreneur is hard no matter what gender you are.CB:我很幸运,因为我在做的事情之前从未有人做过,因此人们更加关注这一点,而不是我本人或我的性别。我的信誉毋庸置疑。于是人们将注意力放到了应该关注的地方——我们在做的事情。我一直都在创新的最前沿,所以我开发的机器人比我本身更引人关注。我认为,创业是一个艰难的过程,这与性别无关。What advice do you have for female entrepreneurs just starting out?你对刚刚起步的女性创业者有什么建议?SK: Learning how to be comfortable with risk and failure is really important. If you are not comfortable with failure, it can really be so scary. If you know that those small failures are Okay, then suddenly it does not become so scary. You want to be calculated about the risks that you take.SK:学会坦然面对风险和失败非常重要。如果你不能坦然面对失败,你只会对它心怀恐惧。如果你知道这些小失败没什么大不了,突然之间你会发现失败变得不再可怕。你需要提前认真考虑自己要承担的风险。CB: The thing that fascinated me about women, is that women just make it work. We juggle a crazy amount of things and we make it work. So much of launching your own startup is dealing with all the things that come at your from all these angles and you have to make it work. Women aly do that every day. I don’t think women should be intimated by it, I think they should think they are at an advantage.CB:身为女性,让我自豪的是,我们总是能让事情正常运行起来。我们要尽力应付各种各样的事情,而且最终总能将其解决。而创业很大程度上就是处理从不同方面交到你手里的事务,并且你必须将这些事情妥善解决。其实,女性每天都在这样做。我认为女性不应对此感到害怕,而是应该将其作为自己的优势 /201411/344399

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