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A bid for a robot maker faces mounting political opposition in Berlin and Brussels over fears the deal will deliver some of Germany’s most critical industrial know-how into Chinese hands.对一家机器人制造商的收购要约,在德国政府和欧盟(EU)总部遭遇了越来越大的政治反对,原因是人们担心该交易将使德国某些最关键的工业技术诀窍落入中国人之手。Midea, an appliance maker based in Guangdong province, last month launched a 4.5bn offer for Kuka, which makes robots used by the carmakers Audi and BMW, and the US aircraft manufacturer Boeing.上月,总部位于广东省的家电制造商美的(Midea)向库卡(Kuka)发起了45亿欧元的收购要约。库卡生产的机器人被用于汽车制造商奥迪(Audi)和宝马(BMW),以及美国飞机制造商波音(Boeing)。Politicians fear technology seen as central to Germany’s “fourth industrial revolution” will end up in China. Kuka is a leading light in the “Industrie 4.0” drive to digitise industrial processes and create fully automated and networked factories.政界人士担心,被视为德国“第四次工业革命”核心的相关技术将因此流入中国。库卡是“工业4.0”努力的领军者;这项努力的目的是把工业过程数字化,打造完全自动化和联网的工厂。Markus Ferber, a German MEP, told the Financial Times: “We really need to think about whether we want to give such a key enterprise to the Chinese, or try to keep it in European hands. My concern is that as a result of deals like this, the cars of the future will no longer be built in Stuttgart.”来自德国的欧洲议会议员(MEP)马库斯#8226;费贝尔(Markus Ferber)向英国《金融时报》表示:“我们真的有必要考虑一下,我们要不要把这么关键的企业交给中国人,还是试图将其留在欧洲人手中。我的顾虑是,类似这样的交易会导致未来的汽车不再在斯图加特生产。”He said Kuka should be taken over by a consortium of technology companies such as the Swiss group ABB, creating a pan-European entity along the lines of Airbus, the aircraft manufacturer.他说,库卡应该由类似瑞士集团ABB等高科技企业组成的的财团收购,从而打造一个类似飞机制造商空中客车(Airbus)的泛欧洲实体。Critics say Beijing would never allow foreigners to invest in strategically important companies.批评人士指出,中国政府永远不会允许外国人投资于具有战略重要意义的企业。On a weekend trip to Beijing, Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, called on China to open its market to western investment. “We expect reciprocity on the Chinese side too,” she said.德国总理安格拉#8226;默克尔(Angela Merkel)在周末访问北京时呼吁中国向西方投资开放市场。她说:“我们期望中国方面也会开放。”Authorities have been trying to head off Midea’s approach. Sigmar Gabriel, deputy chancellor, said this month that efforts were under way “to come up with an alternative offer”. His economics ministry said yesterday that no alternative had been formally proposed, “but we’d be pleased if there was one”.当局一直在试图阻止美的收购。德国副总理西格马尔#8226;加布里尔(Sigmar Gabriel)本月曾表示,有关方面正努力“提出替代的收购方案”。他执掌的经济部昨天表示,目前还没有正式提出替代方案,“不过如果有的话我们会十分高兴”。In a newspaper interview last month, Günther Oettinger, Germany’s EU commissioner in Brussels, said a bid from Kuka’s other shareholders, such as the privately held engineer Voith, with 25 per cent, “could be a better solution”.在上月接受报纸采访时,德国的欧盟专员冈瑟#8226;厄廷格(Günther Oettinger)曾表示,由库卡其他股东——比如持有25%股份的私有的工程集团福伊特(Voith)——提出收购要约“可能是更好的解决方案”。 /201606/449277While debate about the relevance of the secular stagnation idea to current economic conditions continues to rage, there is now almost universal acceptance of a crucial part of the argument. It is agreed that the “neutral” interest rate, which neither boosts nor constrains growth, has declined substantially and is likely to be lower in the future than in the past throughout the industrial world because of a growing relative abundance of savings relative to investment.关于长期停滞观点是否切合当前经济状况,人们还在热议,但这种观点中的一个关键部分已被极为普遍地认可。人们近乎一致地认为,既不会刺激增长、也不会抑制增长的“中性”利率已经大幅下降,而且未来工业国家的中性利率有可能比过去更低,原因是相对于投资来说,储蓄日益充裕。The idea that real interest rates — that is, adjusted for inflation — will be lower than they have been historically is reflected in the pronouncements of policymakers such as Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, the medium-term forecasts of official agencies such as the Congressional Budget Office and the International Monetary Fund and the pricing of government bonds whose payments are tied to inflation.实际利率(即经过通胀调整后的利率)将比历史水平更低的观点,可见于美联储(Fed)主席珍妮特耶伦(Janet Yellen)等政策制定者的声明、美国国会预算办公室(Congressional Budget Office)和国际货币基金组织(IMF)等官方机构的中期预测,以及那些与通胀挂钩的政府债券的定价中。This is important progress and has contributed to more prudent monetary policies than otherwise would have been made and the avoidance of a deflationary psychology taking hold particularly in Europe and Japan. Policymakers, despite having adjusted their views, still overestimate the extent to which neutral real interest rates will rise.这是重要的进步,导致了更为审慎的货币政策,并避免了通缩心理的形成,特别是在欧洲和日本。政策制定者们尽管观点有所转变,但仍然高估了中性实际利率将会上升的幅度。Neutral real interest rates may well rise over the next few years as the American economy creates jobs at a rapid rate and the effects of the financial crisis diminish. This is what many expect, though the fact that an imminent return towards historically normal interest has been widely expected for the past six years should invite scepticism.随着美国经济快速创造就业,以及金融危机的影响消退,中性实际利率很可能在今后几年出现上升。许多人都是这么预期的,然而过去6年里人们也普遍预期利率即将回归历史正常水平,这种情况应该激起人们的怀疑心理。A number of considerations make me doubt the US economy’s capacity to absorb significant increases in real rates over the next few years. First, they were trending down for 20 years before the crisis started and have continued that path since. Second, there is at least a significant risk that as the rest of the world struggles there will be substantial inflows of capital into the US leading to downward pressure on rates and upward pressure on the dollar, which in turn reduces demand for traded goods.出于种种考虑,我怀疑美国经济在今后几年承受实际利率大幅上升的能力。首先,实际利率在危机开始前有20年处于下降通道,而且危机以后又继续下降。其次,至少存在一个巨大风险,即在全球其他地区经济增长乏力的情况下,资本将会大量流入美国,引发利率的下行压力和美元的上行压力,这反过来将减少对贸易商品的需求。Third, the increases in demand achieved through low rates in recent years have come from pulling demand forward, resulting in lower levels of demand for the future. For example, lower rates have accelerated purchases of cars and other consumer durables and created apparent increases in wealth as asset prices inflate. In a sense, monetary easing has a narcotic aspect. To maintain a given level of stimulus requires continuing cuts in rates.第三,最近几年由低利率带来的需求增长实际上是预了需求,将导致未来需求水平下降。例如,利率下降刺激消费者提前购买汽车和其他耐用消费品,而随着资产价格上升,财富也明显增加。从某种意义上来说,货币宽松有着起到麻醉作用的一面。要保持既定水平的刺激,就需要继续削减利率。Fourth, profits are starting to turn down and regulatory pressure is inhibiting lending to small and medium sized businesses. Fifth, inflation mismeasurement may be growing as the share in the economy of items such as heathcare, where quality is hard to adjust for, grows. If so, apparent neutral real interest rates will decline even if there is no change in properly measured rates.第四,利润开始下降,同时监管压力正在抑制对中小企业的放贷。第五,随着医疗保健等务在经济中的比重增长,在衡量通胀时误差会越来越多。若情况果真如此,表面的中性实际利率将会下降,即便正确衡量的利率没有任何改变。All of this leaves me far from confident that there is substantial scope for tightening in the US and there is probably even less scope in other parts of the industrialised world. The fact that central banks in countries, including Europe, Sweden and Israel, where rates were zero found themselves reversing course after raising rates adds to the cause for concern.所有这些都让我很难相信美国有巨大的紧缩空间,其他工业化国家的紧缩空间甚至可能更小。有一种情况让人更有理由担忧:欧洲、瑞典和以色列等地的央行曾经实行零利率,它们在加息之后就又改变了做法。But there is a more profound worry. The experience of the US and others suggests that once a recovery is mature the odds of it ending within two years are about half and of it ending in less than three years over two-thirds. As normal growth is below 2 per cent rather than the historical near 3 per cent, the risk may even be greater. While recession risks may seem remote given rapid growth, no postwar recession has been predicted a year ahead by the Fed, the administration or the consensus forecast.但还有一种更深层次的担忧。美国和其他国家的经历表明,一旦复苏进入成熟阶段,它在两年内结束的几率大约为一半,在不到三年内结束的几率超过三分之二。由于正常增长低于2%而不是历史上的近3%,风险可能更大。尽管鉴于增长迅速,衰退风险似乎很遥远,但二战后的任何一次衰退,不论美联储、政府还是共识预测,都不曾提前一年预测到。History suggests that when recession comes it is necessary to cut rates more than 300 basis points. I agree with the market that the odds are the Fed will not be able to raise rates 100 basis points a year without threatening to undermine recovery. Even if this were possible, the chances are very high that recession will come before there is room to cut rates enough to offset it. The knowledge that this is the case must surely reduce confidence and inhibit demand.历史表明,当衰退来临时,就有必要降息逾300个基点。我赞同市场的这种观点,即美联储大概无法一年加息100个基点还能不破坏经济复苏。即便有此可能,在美联储能够及时大幅降息以阻止经济衰退之前,极有可能衰退已经降临。对于这种情景的认知必定会打击信心并抑制需求。Central bankers bravely assert that they can always use unconventional tools. But there may be less in the cupboard than they suppose. The efficacy of further quantitative easing in an environment of well-functioning markets and aly very low medium-term rates is highly questionable. There are severe limits on how negative rates can become. A central bank forced back to the zero lower bound is not likely to have great credibility if it engages in forward guidance.央行官员们大胆宣称,他们总是可以使用非传统工具。但可动用的工具可能比他们预料的要少。在市场运转良好、中期利率已非常低的环境里,进一步量化宽松的效力非常令人怀疑。利率能够达到的负值有很大限制。被迫退回到零利率下限的央行公信力不会太好,如果它发布前瞻性指引的话。The Fed will in all likelihood raise rates this month. Markets will focus on the pace of its tightening. I hope their response will involve no great turbulence. But the unresolved question that will hang over the economy is how policy can delay and ultimately contain the next recession. It demands urgent attention from fiscal as well as monetary policymakers.美联储很可能在本月提高利率。市场将关注其紧缩步伐。我希望市场做出的回应不会造成巨大的震荡。但一个困扰美国经济的问题没有得到解决,那就是如何利用政策延迟、并最终遏制下一场衰退。这需要财政及货币政策制定者立即重视起来。 /201512/415152TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — Su Shan and her partner are raising 5-month-old twins together, but only one of the women is their legal parent. That could soon change as Taiwan appears set to become the first place in Asia to legalize same-sex marriage.台湾台北(美联社)-苏珊和她的伴侣正在一起抚养五个月大的双胞胎,但她俩中只有一个是法定父母。这可能很快就会改变。台湾似乎将在亚洲第一个合法化同性恋婚姻。;Now, if something happens to the child, the other partner is nothing but a stranger,; said Su, a 35-year-old software engineer in Taipei. By contrast, either partner in a legally recognized marriage could make legal, medical and educational decisions, she says.“现在,如果孩子出了什么事,另一个伴侣除了陌生人什么都不是”苏说,她在台北是一个35岁的软件工程师。相比之下,如果法律承认同性婚姻那么每一个伴侣都可以做出有关法律医疗和教育的决定,她说。Taiwanese lawmakers are currently working on three bills in support of marriage equality, one of which is aly listed for review and could be passed within months. Same-sex marriage also has the prominent support of President Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan#39;s first female head of state.台湾议员们目前致力于三个婚姻平等的议案,其中一个已经在复审中并有可能在几个月内通过,蔡英文省长也大力持同性恋婚姻,她是台湾第一个女性首脑。About 80 percent of Taiwanese between ages 20 and 29 support same-sex marriage, said Tseng Yen-jung, spokeswoman for the group Taiwan LGBT Family Rights Advocacy , citing local university studies. Taiwan#39;s ed Daily News found in a survey taken four years ago that 55 percent of the public supported same-sex marriage, with 37 percent opposed.“年龄介于20到29岁的台湾人中有八成持同性婚姻”援引当地大学的研究,台湾LGBT(非异性恋者)促进保障会女发言人Tseng Yen-jung说。台湾联合报四年前的一次调查显示公众有55%持同性恋婚姻,有37%反对。That#39;s seen as a reflection of Taiwan#39;s y acceptance of multi-party democracy and other inclusive attitudes, as well as the fact that Taiwan#39;s 23 million people largely follow Buddhism and traditional Chinese religions that take no strong positions on sexual orientation or gay marriage.这被视为台湾对于多党派民主的接受及包容态度,而且事实上很大程度上遵循佛教及中国传统信仰的台湾2300万人民不再对性取向及同性恋持强硬立场。Gay and lesbian relationships began to find wide acceptance in the 1990s, aided by the aly well-established feminist movement, said Jens Damm, associate Professor in the Graduate Institute of Taiwan Studies at Chang Jung University in Taiwan.“同性恋关系在1990年代开始被广泛接受,受助于已经成熟的女权运动。”台湾长荣大学研究院副教授Jens Damm说道。Still, same-sex marriage still had to overcome traditional perceptions of gender roles and the strong pressure on children to marry and have kids. The self-ruled island also lacks many openly gay and lesbian celebrities to lead the way; the writer and television talk show host Kevin Tsai is among the few exceptions.然而同性恋婚姻仍然要克对于性别角色的传统认知以及结婚生子的巨大压力。这个自治岛屿也缺少很多公开带头的同性恋名人,电视脱口秀主持人及作家蔡康永是几个为数不多的例外。;It#39;s a big step forward for the history of human rights,; said Yu Mei-nu, a ruling Democratic Progressive Party lawmaker who is sponsoring the same-sex marriage bill now in line for parliamentary debate. ;If Taiwan can get this passed ... it will give other Asian countries a model.;“这对于人权历史是一个巨大的进步”在议会辩论中持同性婚姻法的执政党民进党议员Yu Mei-nu说。“如果台湾能通过同性恋婚姻法...将给其他亚洲国家树立榜样。” /201611/477854

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